With Russian officials repeating almost non-stop that there will be changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine, @ElenaChernenko collected views from 6 well-known Russian strategic thinkers on how they would change the doctrine. A thread 1/13

https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1831226888305422456

Of course, those views would not necessarily be reflected in the new doctrine (maybe not at all), which by now should be in final stages of drafting, but they tell a lot about Russian expert thinking on nuclear weapons 2/13

So, six months later @FT published another story about Russian nuclear strategy based on the same "cache of 29 secret Russian military files". And I have pretty similar problems with it. A very short thread 1/x ft.com/content/237e1e… My previous thread is below. First, we still don't know what are the documents in question. FT describes them as "presentation for officers", "files, drawn up between 2008 and 2014" & "maps, made for presentational purposes rather than operational use" 2/x

https://x.com/baklitskiy/status/1762823408113398185

UN SG @antonioguterres presented his long-awaited policy brief on “A New Agenda for Peace”, setting the stage for discussing the issue of peace and security at the next year’s Summit of the Future. Initial thoughts thread 1/16 un.org/sites/un2.un.o… “A New Agenda for Peace” (NA4P) is a rather broad document (∼ 40 pages) covering things from preventive diplomacy to sustainable development and from peace operations to emerging tech. I was mostly interested in the nuclear issues, of course 2/16

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that "If necessary - Putin and I - if necessary will deploy strategic nuclear weapons here". I wouldn't read too much into it at this point, but still a short breakdown 🧵1/x apnews.com/article/russia… I'm not even sure Russia will deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus 2/x

https://mobile.twitter.com/baklitskiy/status/1639693362298068994

Russia published its new Foreign Policy Concept - unsearchable pdf for now. I will do a brief thread on nuclear issues 1/x publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/…

https://twitter.com/baklitskiy/status/1641761439168753665

Sustaining strategic stability is national priority number 2 in the new Foreign Policy Concept second only to protecting the Constitution, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Russia 2/x

Russian MFA published its Review of Foreign Policy Activity for 2022. In which it matter-of-factly mentions that Moscow stopped participating in the work of Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)1/x mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol… Sorry, had to delete the previous thread because I’ve mixed up a couple of things 1.5/x

Fascinating, so the Russian MFA just published a commentary by the spokesperson on Ru-By “interaction in nuclear sphere”. It contains 8 paragraphs & doesn’t say if Russia will deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. The plot thickens mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol… my reading: no deployment The statement basically says that the US created nuclear sharing, Washington is lowering nuclear threshold, there are calls to move nukes closer to Russia, US & NATO are waging total hybrid war against Moscow, Russia has right to respond. 1/2

BRKN. President Putin in his address to the Russian Parliament announces that Moscow will suspend implementation of the New START. This is really-really unfortunate, and the downward trend is now clear. I will write a thread below 1/x Also, Pres Putin directs MOD and Rosatom to keep infrastructure ready for nuclear testing. "Russia will not test first but it should be ready if the US does" 2/x

I missed those: an in-depth interview with Ru Dep FM Ryabkov by @ElenaChernenko on what's going on with US-Russian arms control. All the right questions. And rather telling answers. I’ll focus on the new bits but read the whole thing. Thread 1/x kommersant.ru/doc/5785723 Ru Dep FM Ryabkov: US aggressiveness, its aim for Russia’s “strategic defeat” in a total hybrid war made constructive and fruitful engagement with Washington on arms control in “business as usual” mode practically impossible 2/x

The upper house of the Ru Parliament approves the law requiring foreign warships to receive diplomatic clearance 90 days before passage through Ru internal waters in the Northern Sea Route. This is a surprisingly complicated issue, see @lawfareblog lawfareblog.com/wrangling-wars… "A more limiting aspect of the law is that it applies only to internal waters in the NSR, which, in the grand scheme of things, is a relatively small area: about 3 percent of the NSR area"

Russia announced it was not coming to the Bilateral Consultative Commission with the US - implementation body of the New START treaty - a day before it was supposed to begin @ElenaChernenko reports kommersant.ru/doc/5693436. What do we know and what does it mean. Thread 1/x The fact that a BCC meeting – normally a pretty low-key technical event – got so much media attention tells you a lot about how bad US-Russian relations in the nuclear sphere got. There are no other bilateral formats to talk about nuclear arms control left 2/x

Russia made an official statement on prevention of nuclear war (in Russian for now) mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol…, following a number of recent conciliatory remarks by Ru officials, including by Pres Putin that “there is no point in” using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Short thread 1/5 The statement says that Ru nuclear deterrence policy is based on the principle that nuclear war is unacceptable, it cannot be won and should not be fought. Russian nuclear doctrine is very clear, it’s purely defensive and cannot be interpreted broadly 2/5

As Ru Defense Minister & Chief of General Staff were calling their Western counterparts suggesting Ukraine might use a “dirty bomb” on its own territory to frame Russia, I tried to unpack and make some sense of the whole situation 🧵1/20 First, this is not the first time Russia alleged there will be some kind of false flag WMD use in Ukraine. On April 24, Lt. Gen Kirillov gave a briefing about this (I couldn’t find an English version on the MoD website, so apparently in Russian only) 2/20 z.mil.ru/spec_mil_oper/…

With Russia nationalizing Zaporizhzhia NPP, there are calls (eg from the Polish Minister of Climate and Environment below) to expel Moscow from the @IAEA. But is this even possible? Thread 1/8

https://twitter.com/moskwa_anna/status/1574347961399738368

The short answer is no: the IAEA statute doesn’t have a mechanism for expelling members iaea.org/sites/default/…. But there is something close – suspension of privileges and rights, including the right to vote 2/8

As Russia is posed to announce 4 regions of Ukraine as its territory, one question to watch would be the fate of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This is an unprecedented situation. Thread 🧵 1/15 Some context: Zaporizhzhia NPP with its 6 reactors is the biggest in Europe & in the top ten worldwide. In March 2022 it was captured by the Ru military, becoming the first NPP ever to be occupied in a war. Ukrainian staff continued operating the plant 2/15

In his speech announcing the partial mobilization of Russian forces in the context of the ongoing war with Ukraine Pres. Putin again raised the issue of nuclear weapons and made some noteworthy comments. Thread 1/13 There’s still no official translation from Kremlin.ru so this translation is unofficial. The Russian text can be accessed at kremlin.ru/events/preside…, though the website apparently has some access issues rn 2/13

So, let’s talk about NATO and US responses to Russian draft documents on security guarantees leaked by El Pais. This is how it looks from Moscow. Thread 1/x First, let’s do NATO, b/c there is not much to say really. A lot of Western experts said at the time that Moscow proposals were written to be rejected because of high demands and little in return. Well, that’s what NATO did with its response 2/x

On Jan 6, Ru Dep FM Ryabkov gave a big interview to Izvestia. So here’s Moscow stance before upcoming security guarantees discussions with US/NATO from the person in charge. Thread 1/x mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol… DFM Ryabkov: DFM Grushko, Perm Rep Lukashevich and himself will work on NATO, OSCE & the US respectively 2/x

Russia proposed two documents asking for legally binding security guarantees: a bilateral treaty with the US, and a multilateral agreement between Russia & NATO member states. I will focus on new and specific staff. Thread 1/ First on the bilateral RU-US treaty: US & RU agree not to do things that affect the security of the other Party / undermine core security interests of the other Party. Neither of those is defined in the text 2/

Elena Chernenko interviews @USArmsControl (in Russian) on all the nuts and bolts of US position in talks with Russia, great interview, some highlights below, thread 1/x

https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1307717330080858112

.@USArmsControl aims at some sort of combination of a politically binding agreement with Russia (especially on the verification side) with more of an outline of things to come, but nothing legally binding 2/x

Today Vladimir Putin signed an order On the Fundamentals of Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence State Policy, which is quite self-explanatory. The document is only in Russian for the moment, but I assume it will be translated. For now, here’s a thread on the main points 1/20

https://twitter.com/baklitskiy/status/1267801484269412354

The biggest news here is that the document is public. The last one was signed by President Medvedev in 2010 and was supposed to last till 2020. It went in a package with the 2010 Military doctrine but unlike the doctrine, it was classified. kremlin.ru/events/preside… 2/20