My first reactions to Putin’s speech this morning.
1. We are entering a new phase in the war.
2. Putin is desperate, but take him seriously.
3. We are in this for the long haul - think unpredictable.
A🧵 of five initial questions and conclusions.
1/7
1. We are entering a new phase in the war.
2. Putin is desperate, but take him seriously.
3. We are in this for the long haul - think unpredictable.
A🧵 of five initial questions and conclusions.
1/7
What did he say?
1. Partial mobilisation of 300K (new).
2. Further annexation of regions (old) and referenda (new).
3. Threat of using nuclear weapons (old).
Conclusion: unlikely any of the three will work.
2/7
1. Partial mobilisation of 300K (new).
2. Further annexation of regions (old) and referenda (new).
3. Threat of using nuclear weapons (old).
Conclusion: unlikely any of the three will work.
2/7
Why did he say it now?
1. He is in trouble both militarily and politically.
2. Without mobilisation Russia might potentially lose the war.
3. After latest losses - sends message of escalation.
Conclusion: even if bluffing, take him seriously.
3/7
1. He is in trouble both militarily and politically.
2. Without mobilisation Russia might potentially lose the war.
3. After latest losses - sends message of escalation.
Conclusion: even if bluffing, take him seriously.
3/7
How should we react?
1. Cool, calm and collected.
2. General condemnation at the UN, preferably a vote.
3. Do not give in one inch and do not negotiate.
Conclusion: continue to support Ukraine militarily and financially.
4/7
1. Cool, calm and collected.
2. General condemnation at the UN, preferably a vote.
3. Do not give in one inch and do not negotiate.
Conclusion: continue to support Ukraine militarily and financially.
4/7
Why is he in trouble?
1. Losing respect and support at home.
2. Losing respect among ”supporters” (China and India).
3. Russia becoming increasingly isolated.
Conclusion: he does not understand the phrase ”if you are in hole, stop digging”.
5/7
1. Losing respect and support at home.
2. Losing respect among ”supporters” (China and India).
3. Russia becoming increasingly isolated.
Conclusion: he does not understand the phrase ”if you are in hole, stop digging”.
5/7
What will happen next?
1. Mobilisation will be slow, takes months.
2. Nuclear option perhaps bluff - alternative cost too high.
3. Prepare for a winter of war.
Conclusion: we are in this for the long haul. Keep in mind that Putin is unpredictable.
6/7
1. Mobilisation will be slow, takes months.
2. Nuclear option perhaps bluff - alternative cost too high.
3. Prepare for a winter of war.
Conclusion: we are in this for the long haul. Keep in mind that Putin is unpredictable.
6/7
PS. As an academic, I am always reluctant to react to an event at short notice - I prefer reflection.
As a former politician I realise that many of my initial reactions might not stand the test of time. Apologies in advance.
This is a way to try to understand.
7/7
As a former politician I realise that many of my initial reactions might not stand the test of time. Apologies in advance.
This is a way to try to understand.
7/7
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