The war in Ukraine has short-, medium- and long-term ramifications. Few reflections on all three after Putin’s two recent speeches and the situation on the ground. Base case is still the same: Putin and Russia growing increasingly desperate. A 15 point🧵.

1/15 First, in the SHORT TERM it is naturally about war and peace. Russia’s strategy has not changed. The aim is to secure a land link to the Crimean peninsula and continue the weaponisation of energy. Testing limits of hybrid warfare by blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline.

2/15

My first reactions to Putin’s speech this morning.

1. We are entering a new phase in the war.
2. Putin is desperate, but take him seriously.
3. We are in this for the long haul - think unpredictable.

A🧵 of five initial questions and conclusions.

1/7 What did he say?

1. Partial mobilisation of 300K (new).
2. Further annexation of regions (old) and referenda (new).
3. Threat of using nuclear weapons (old).

Conclusion: unlikely any of the three will work.

2/7

Today’s thriller thread:

Decided to make my trip to the @NHL Draft in Montreal a bit more interesting by leaving my suitcase on the first train on my way to Fuimicino Airport in Rome.

So, here is how it all went.

1/4 1. Told conductor on local train what happened.

2. He called my first train and asked his colleague to drop off the back at Termini (Rome Central).

3. I jumped off the local train and reversed back to Tiburtina.

4. Taxi strike. Took metro to Termini.

2/4

This is a brief personal thread 🧵 a few days after the Finnish Parliament voted with an overwhealming majority - 188 in favour and 8 against - for Nato membership. I have been an advocate of Nato membership for thirty years. Been asked how I feel now. So, here we go.

1/10 I guess my first feeling is one of relief. Not that I was worried about the vote, but more about the road that lead us here. With the wisdom of hindshight, there was no need to worry. The de facto decision on Finnish Nato membership was taken on 24 February.

2/10

We EU-nerds love to talk about the future of Europe in all forms and shapes. Been doing it in speeches, articles and books for the past 30 years. And in practice by negotiating the Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon treaties. So here we go with another 10 point thread. 🧵

1/10 Ukraine is a game changer for the future of Europe. A split Europe with an authoritarian Russia on one side, and 40 democratic states on the other. This will force Europe to think about how it organises itself in the future. Crucial to plan ahead and start immediately.

2/10

We human beings have a tendency to try to find order in a world of disorder. It is our way of making sense of a world which often lacks it. This ten point thread 🧵 is an attempt to simplify and understand an emerging WORLD ORDER in an era of DISORDER. Work in progress.

1/10 During the Cold War the world seemed rather orderly. It was bipolar and ideological. The US and its allies spoke the language of democracy, capitalism and freedom. The Soviet Union and its subjects represented autocracy, communism and control. The US came out on top.

2/10

There is a general misconception in Europe and the US that the war in Ukraine is only about Russia and the ”West”. It is not. Ramifications are broader - also about the West and the ”Rest”. This 10 point thread 🧵 looks at some of the reactions around the world.

1/10 There was a sigh of relief when 141 states voted against Russia in the @UN. Certainly not a bad outcome, but reality is that many of those votes were ”soft”. And that the 35 abstaining members represent over half of the worlds population. Picture more complex than numbers.

2/10

The North Atlantic Treaty Alliance has received much attention during the war in Ukraine. Reason is self-evident: Russia feeds a narrative of Nato as its #1 nemesis and threat. Time thus to provide a 10 point thread 🧵about @NATO, FINLAND 🇫🇮 and SWEDEN 🇸🇪.

1/10 The war in Ukraine is not about Nato, it is about values. Vladimir Putin is an authoritarian tyrant who cannot stand liberal democracy and the free world. He wants to keep Ukraine in Russia’s sphere of interest and uses a possible Nato membership as a pretext for war.

2/10

We live in a world in which everything can be used as an instrument of power. Things that are supposed to bring us together can also drive us apart. This thread 🧵 is about ten key INSTRUMENTS of power of the 21st Century.

0/10 The first, and most self-evident, is military - conventional and non-conventional. It is mostly about expenditure, size and capability. But also equipment, quality, and experience. Technology gives an edge with the new instruments of war - drones, cyber and AI.

1/10

This 10 point thread goes beyond the war in Ukraine. Focus on POWER in the 21st Century. Fallacy that power is somehow static and concentrated. It is actually varied and diluted. In reality power oscillates like Foucoult’s pendulum, different directions, at different times.

1/10 In Int’l Rel we often talk about hard, soft and smart power - coercive, attractive and holistic. We also talk about global or regional powers - big, middle and small. These are ways to explain, understand and categorise power between states, in terms of influence or status.

2/10

This ten point thread is about the role of the US 🇺🇸 in the war in Ukraine. It should be read in conjunction with the six previous threads - GENERAL, WORLD, EUROPE, FINLAND, RUSSIA and CHINA. The next thread will be on SWEDEN.

0/10 The United States has been the bedrock of European security since WWII. As a founder of NATO, a nuclear power and a permanent member of the UN, its military presence in Europe was vital during the Cold War and in its aftermath.

1/10

This ten point thread is about CHINA’s 🇨🇳 role in the war in Ukraine. It should be read in conjunction with the five previous threads - GENERAL, WORLD, EUROPE, FINLAND and RUSSIA. The next thread will be on the US.

0/10 The war in Ukraine is a distraction for China. President Xi Jinping, whom I have met in one-on-one meetings twice when he was Vice President, would prefer to have all eyes on the upcoming party congress and managing China’s zero-Covid policy.

1/10

This ten point thread is about RUSSIA 🇷🇺. It should be read in conjunction with the four previous threads - GENERAL, WORLD, EUROPE and FINLAND - on the same subject. The next thread will be on the US or CHINA.

1/10 When you are born and raised in country with 1340km of border with Russia, you quickly realise that your security cannot be detached from history and geography. For us Russia is an aggressive, imperial power. This is the starting point of our thinking.

2/10

This ten point thread is about how I see the situation in FINLAND three weeks into the Russian attack on Ukraine. It should be read in conjunction with the three previous threads - GENERAL, WORLD and EUROPE - on the same subject. The next thread will be on RUSSIA.

1/10 In the past weeks I have given many explanatory interviews to int’l media about the war in Ukraine. Broad range of issues, but mostly about Russia, Putin, the EU, Nato, Finland and Georgia. With 1340 km of border with Russia, Finland matters, strategically and politically.

2/10

This ten point thread is how I see EUROPE three weeks after the Russian attack on Ukraine. It should be read in conjuction with the two earlier threads on the GENERAL situation and the WORLD. Comments welcome, as always.

1/10 Been dealing with the European Union as a student, civil servant, academic and politician since 1989. Never seen the EU acting with more determination, speed and unity. A common enemy unites. No one more so than Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

2/10

THREAD:

We human beings have a tendency to over-rationalise the past, over-dramatise the present and underestimate the future. In trying to avoid all three, here is a 10 point world on how I see the WORLD two weeks after the Russian attack on Ukraine.

1/10 This is the 1914, 1939 and 1989 moment of the modern world. It is a both a return to the past, and potentially a new beginning. End of an era of relative peace. Beginning of an era of unpeace driven by Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Everything will be weaponised.

2/10

A ten point THREAD on the situation from a country with a 1340km border with Russia:

1. The security threat is real. Putin wants to take over Ukraine, revamp the security structure of Europe & keep Finland & Sweden out of Nato. We must assume that his actions have no limits. 2. Putin is driven by nostalgia and legacy. Nostalgia of historic Russia with one language, one religion and one leader. A legacy of a leader who has made ”Russia great again”. He thus sees Belarus and Ukraina as part of Russia. Won’t necessarily stop there.

Apologies for a long, but hopefully reflective thread about modern politics. It is partially inspired by a documentary about Finnish politicians which will be released tomorrow on @yleuutiset, the Finnish Broadcasting company. 1/25 This thread should thus be seen as a personal reflection, not a comment on the state of affairs in a country that is close to my heart. 2/25

Thread in the midst of the noise:

With eight years of government experience (2008-16), including the financial and asylum crises, I do not envy the road ahead for most governments around the world, especially those I know the best, i.e European democracies. 1/10 The way in which I see the sequence of events unfolding goes something like this:

1. A pandemic strikes. Everyone is baffled. First reaction is to go native, protect the home plate.

2. Governments scramble to look for best practise. Few understand implications. Chaos. 2/10

Thread: have been worried about basic American infrastructure ever since I did my undergrad studies at @Furman_POL 1989-1993, and on subsequent annual visits around the country that I admire. Was always a bit baffled about wood panel houses that collapse with strong winds, 1/5 electric lines above the ground in cities and suburbs, quality of the roads, old fashioned gasguzzlers, vintage police cars, ambulances and firetrucks, old airplanes, lack of modern trains, carpeted airports, out of date showers, checkbooks (!) and yes public toilet ”boxes”. 2/5

Thread:

The @EU_Commission might have screwed up the communication of the #vaccine roll-out in the past week, but important to keep the big picture in mind. Without the Commission in the lead we would have been in the middle of vaccine wars/nationalism inside the EU. 1/4 Small EU states would have had virtually no negotiating power with the big pharmaceutical companies. Big states would have swept the doses just through mere scale and size. This would have lead to frustration and delayed Europe’s capacity to get out of the pandemic. 2/4