The Putin mobilization speech seems pretty much vaporware. Eight months ago, Putin invaded Ukraine with his best-trained, best-equipped 175,000 troops. That army is now wrecked, its equipment depleted, maybe 50,000 killed, who knows how many maimed/wounded. 1/x
So now he's calling up a reserve army of 300,000: worse-trained, worse-equipped. How much can they accomplish against a Ukrainian force that is progressively better armed every passing month? 2/x
The Ukrainian battlefields get muddy soon. Then it gets cold. Do the 300,000 reservists have mobility? Do they even have proper winter gear? 3/x
It all seems like a fantasy drafted on paper by generals who don't want to get thrown out of windows ... repeated on TV by a leader isolated from reality by the lies he demands to be told. 4/x
Which is not to say that Putin's army lacks options. They can try even more heinous terror tactics against Ukrainian civilian populations: rocket attacks on cities, etc. Probably that's what Putin will do. But as plans go ... 5/x
... it's a plan for maximizing human suffering, not for achieving any strategic objectives. Putin's crimes are terrible, but Putin's goals seem already irretrievably lost. END
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