@RALee85 has a very useful thread here explaining the mobilization Putin has put into effect for Russia.
Read it all👇
My takeaways🧵
Read it all👇
My takeaways🧵
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572554898201538561
My immediate takeaways:
- Current conscripts can be ordered to the front & 'refuseniks' jailed.
- Stop loss on all Russian conscript & contract troops. They are all in for the duration of the war.
- Priority call up/conscription of former Russian soldiers with needed skills.
2/
- Current conscripts can be ordered to the front & 'refuseniks' jailed.
- Stop loss on all Russian conscript & contract troops. They are all in for the duration of the war.
- Priority call up/conscription of former Russian soldiers with needed skills.
2/
- Administratively, new conscripts & contract troops will be used as replacements for existing units.
The previous four bullet points together represent potentially effective steps to delay a Russian lanchester square manpower collapse for up to three months.
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The previous four bullet points together represent potentially effective steps to delay a Russian lanchester square manpower collapse for up to three months.
3/
There are neither the extra officers nor facilities necessary for a mass mobilization now in existence in Russia.
These capabilities were too expensive to maintain and were done away with in the late 1990's to early 2000's.
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These capabilities were too expensive to maintain and were done away with in the late 1990's to early 2000's.
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In addition, the smaller current Russian Army training cadre was already sent to Ukraine & is likely dead or wounded.
Russia can draft bodies.
It can't rapidly train, equip, and most importantly, effectively lead them.
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Russia can draft bodies.
It can't rapidly train, equip, and most importantly, effectively lead them.
5/
In the US Army, a new recruit has three months basic training followed by three months of advanced individual training under the eyes of professional non-commissioned officers.
Russia does not have a professional NCO corps because they were viewed as a political threat to
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Russia does not have a professional NCO corps because they were viewed as a political threat to
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...the regime.
It takes time to develop military discipline & marksmanship skills.
It takes more time to learn to used infantry crew served support weapons.
It takes more time, kit to train on and skilled instructors to make maintainers, tank & AFV crews or artillerymen.
7/
It takes time to develop military discipline & marksmanship skills.
It takes more time to learn to used infantry crew served support weapons.
It takes more time, kit to train on and skilled instructors to make maintainers, tank & AFV crews or artillerymen.
7/
Russia lacks time & much else.
Untrained waves of 20 to 50 something men with AK something assault rifles and no radios with a few junior officers will fall apart at the first Ukrainian artillery or armored attack.
The new Russian plan seems to be to throw 50 untrained
8/
Untrained waves of 20 to 50 something men with AK something assault rifles and no radios with a few junior officers will fall apart at the first Ukrainian artillery or armored attack.
The new Russian plan seems to be to throw 50 untrained
8/
...bodies into a 65 man Motor Rifle Company that went into Ukraine at 60% strength, with its maybe 10 survivors, and hope they can hold a bit of Ukrainian trench line.
9/
9/
I think this is a Russian plan in the same class of "Fantasy Hope-ium" as the original pre-war plan for a Russian "Special Operation" taking over Ukraine in three days.
Your mileage may vary.
10/10 End
Your mileage may vary.
10/10 End
@threadreaderapp unroll please
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