This is a critical #doorstep operation--with implications for the U.S. & other countries as well. The #doorstep bargain in Russia was for citizens to passively acquiesce to the government's policies in return for largely being left alone and guaranteed a middle class lifestyle.1/
Putin is upending that bargain. Russians already dealing with sanctions pressure now face (if they are reservists) the prospect of going to Ukraine. Does this lead to more cracks in popular passivity? 2/
Now to the U.S. implications. For years, the U.S. bargain was to find ways to minimize the #doorstep impact from interventions around the world. Use of drones, the volunteer force, etc. When foreign policy starts to affect domestic issues, though ... 3/
we saw it reflected in domestic politics. "America First" or "a foreign policy for the middle class" were different ways of responding to that dynamic. 4/
Back to Russia. There has been public support for the "special operation" in Ukraine--but is that support strong or soft? Even partial mobilization raises the #doorstep stakes--which may change the tenor of that support. 5/

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More from @DoorstepPodcast

May 2
So, the more pessimistic side to the thread from a few days ago about the possible emergence of a new narrative for U.S. foreign policy, based on some off-line responses ... 1/
Agreement that, at least in terms of rhetoric, there is the basis for a new convergence. But the details remain unsettled. Several areas in particular: 2/
Stopping Putin--broad agreement. Increasing U.S. hydrocarbon production in the short-term ... not so much. Striking a balance between increased oil and gas now, in part to help allies reduce Russian consumptions, and fear that too much drilling today reduces incentives ... 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 1
Beginning to see signs that after several years, a new narrative is taking shape to provide coherence to U.S. global engagement. Some of those emerging markers: 1/
The covid pandemic highlighted risks of supply chains for critical goods based out of China. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has called attention to risks of energy & resource dependence on Moscow. Price is not the only object. 2/
Reliability of partners matters. Covid and Ukraine crises have been impetus for moving ahead on technological partnerships among democratic states--starting with the search for vaccines. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 30
Always great to talk with @ashjain50 & to discuss the work of the @AtlanticCouncil's Shaping a New Democratic World Order. In particular, focusing on steps that can be taken to enhance U.S. global leadership @ rebuild a robust community of democracies across ... 1/
both the Pacific & the Atlantic, but also will generate concrete #doorstep benefits. He is a proponent of closer cooperation among democratic allies to facilitate efforts to harnessing new technologies so that the democratic world prevails in the race for advanced technology. 2/
(In this, he echoes points made by @nilschmid in a recent issue of @FPRI_Orbis). 3/ fpri.org/article/2021/1…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 6
Doorstep guest #ColinDueck writing in @TheNatlInterest breaks down Republican attitudes on Russia and Ukraine. Citing @pewresearch polls, he notes "73 percent of Republicans favor working with U.S. allies to respond to the Russian invasion." 1/
A March survey conducted by @Reuters , shows an overwhelming majority of GOP voters support a robust set of U.S. measures against Putin’s Russia. Some 3/4 of Republicans support U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine, rigorous economic sanctions, a ban on the import of Russian oil ... 2/
and the seizure of assets from Russian oligarchs. And according to a @Gallup poll released March 14, only 15 percent of Americans view Putin’s Russia favorably. Democrats and Republicans both respond in the same way. There is no real partisan difference on this issue. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 2
So, having identified different narratives in @POTUS #SOTU, some interesting gaps. 1/
Doorstep guest @reziemba put her finger on it: democratic community when it comes to old-style geopolitics, almost a way to recapture the spirit of the Cold War "Free World"--but not on trade, technology, economy. 2/
So one element of the democratic community narrative: alliances and partnerships on energy, health, climate and technological security and for innovation and development--not mentioned. That is noticeable. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 2
Narrative themes from @POTUS #SOTU: A 🧵... Connecting to the work done by the U.S. Global Engagement project of @carnegiecouncil ... 1/
The "democratic community" narrative. In speaking about confronting Putin, @POTUS cited creation of a "coalition of other freedom-loving nations from Europe and the Americas to Asia and Africa." 2/
But to reassure Americans about his commitment to a foreign policy for the middle class, "I will use every tool at our disposal to protect American businesses and consumers." 3/
Read 9 tweets

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