So I'm 6 days into Covid, my brain feels like cottage cheese, but I still want to try to say something about this permitting bill & the way that climate politics seems to be shaking out after the fade-away of the #GreenNewDeal.
It's supply-side climate policy and it's bad.
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The vision of the #GreenNewDeal was to connect climate policy to a large host of policies that would raise the majority's real income—quite aside from what people would save on clean compared to fossil energy—and thereby win a entrenched constituency for decarbonization.
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The idea, as I understood it, was that this broad constituency would arise in addition to whatever vested interests in decarbonization would be developed by establishing clean-energy industries, a climate corps, etc.
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The proponents of the IRA also imagine that new political coalitions will be built by the establishment of domestic clean-energy industries—and they may well be. But the majority of Americans still lose money, even with the IRA's generous credits and rebates, because...
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...to participate in climate action, Americans are being asked to act as individual consumers: to spend money on buying a new EV and retrofitting their own homes.
This approach still dumps the costs right in people's laps, before they start to feel the benefits.
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And yes, things will be much cheaper—but you're still being asked to spend money.
This approach to decarbonizing electricity and transportation is the antithesis to a public works project whose costs are socialized and that offers the public benefits directly.
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But the faith in markets as rational and reasonable, and consumers as perfect little cogs in the wheels of the market, seems to be unshakable. Make clean energy cheap, and people will pay to switch.
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How much more neoliberalism must we have before we accept that markets don't solve social problems?
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And I would entertain the argument that the US is taking this market-based approach to climate policy only because it's the only way to pass policy through the Senate, if...
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...if it were not for the unholy alliance of fossil fuel interests, powerful energy modelers, centrist pundits, and climate journalists who are pushing to weaken NEPA, shaming environmentalists in the process.
Supply-side climate policy IS the strategy. It's not a "compromise."
And here's the thing: it's not going to work to solve the climate and ecological crisis that we're currently in.
Yes, we need to build a fuck-ton of renewable energy, transmission, infrastructure, etc.
But that's not ALL we need to do.
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Because, I'm sorry, but the crisis we're in is not just about switching out one form of energy for another while leaving the rest of the system in place.
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I don't actually think that degrowth is a viable political program, but degrowth research has nonetheless made the incontrovertible point that everything we extract and bring into our economy and everything we emit as waste "out of" our economy is part of the climate problem.
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In addition to phasing out fossil fuel energy, we also need to integrate our economy into planetary boundaries.
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Yes, I know, I sound very crunchy. I'm sorry. I'm from New York. I grew up liking ballet, and Paris, and Madonna and Prince. I thought nature was gross. I had no interest in ecology until I was well down the climate rabbit hole. But there it is. Planetary boundaries matter.
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Anyway, my point is that the Democrats and some of the most well-positioned and influential voices in academia and media are starting to coalesce around pushing for and celebrating supply-side climate policy (increase supply of clean energy and voilà: problem solved).
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Not only does this religion of markets (sustained by the ritual of math with made-up assumptions which is economic modeling) totally ignore how the power of intrenched fossil interests actually works, and how people power must be built to overthrow it, it also...
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...it also makes decarbonization a series of consumer choices, which is bound to lead to, at best, a partial solution.
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For even if everyone bought an EV, solar panels, and an induction stove, we would still need not just a decarbonized, electrified economy, but an integrated economy in order to stop destroying the planetary systems that, let's be frank, enable us to live.
/fin
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I think it's under-appreciated how revolutionary and important this @MarshallBBurke, Solomon Hsiang, @tedmiguel paper really is.
Conventional economic wisdom says that rich countries will be largely ok even if the climate heats up past 2°C.
But this paper...
🧵
This paper shows that "both rich & poor countries exhibit similar non-linear responses to temperature," and that...
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neither "technological advances [nor] the accumulation of wealth and experience since 1960 has fundamentally altered the relationship between productivity and temperature."
Rather, the paper says, "results using data from 1960–1989 and 1990–2010 are nearly identical."
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There is a politically significant difference between the inherent tension of a transition to a different energy and economic system (in which old processes and structures of feeling still linger even as new technologies and ways of being emerge) and...
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a hope and plan to keep fossil fuels significantly in the mix in the next iteration of our economy. It is this that is so dangerous, because, insofar as it succeeds, it ensures that the world won't halt global warming at a relatively safe level.
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And that is becuz, to the extent that it's not just a cynical, nihilistic desire to maximize extractive profits (ie, the current position of oil and gas companies), it relies on the belief that we can use CCS & CO2 removal to offset ff production AND deliver negative emissions
I've been thinking about climate messaging that emerged in the weeks leading up to Manchin's decision to support the IRA.
Once folks believed Manchin was lost forever, they started explicitly talking about climate destruction, and pinned that future destruction *on Manchin*.
🧵
The best example of this shift: @leahstokes brilliant NYT OpEd in which she eloquently described how climate change is already destroying so much of our world and noted that "Mr. Manchin’s grandchildren will grow up knowing that his legacy is climate destruction."
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At the same time, of course, the OpEd also highlighted the immediate economic benefits of the climate investments in the IRA.
Talking about immediate benefits is an essential element of any climate message.
To be clear: what is mind-blowing is that accelerating climate change and ongoing extinctions have not made traditional economists change their assumptions AT ALL.
"Don’t think about consumption — even your consumption — as individual. Think of yourself as a node for social, political and moral contagion."
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"individual attitudes ladder up to social attitudes, and then to social and political change. Sometimes I’ll see people cut what individuals do and what happens in politics. But I think that’s a cut that you need to be very careful making."
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"It is very hard to impose through politics outcomes and social mores that individuals do not already believe in their private lives."
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I'm sorry but the idea that destroying the web of life with extraction, and heating the planet 2.7 C in decades by adding billions of tons of CO2 to the carbon cycle, will make the world ... only just about as shitty as it is now is absolutely false—and so, so dangerous.
Even just thinking for five minutes about what's going to happen to our financial system w the collapse of the real estate market due to the sea level rise to which we're already committed: how will our wealth keep growing enough to hedge America against climate change??
Even considering just what's going to happen to our growing zones with 2.7 C of warming—how can our global food system not be strained to breaking?? Are Americans immune to hunger?