The release of the Azov leadership is an even bigger blow to Russian nationalists than the Kharkiv retreat. The retreat could be explained by the mistakes of the military, while the release of the Azov command undermines the very idea of "denazification". 1/

Russian propaganda has been demonising the Azov regiment for the last eight years, telling stories about how they "kill Russian children of Donbas". They have become something like the SS and have been opposed to ordinary Ukrainian soldiers "who are just like us". 2/
One of the main aims of denazification was the elimination of Azov, and the fall of Mariupol and their capture was the main triumph of the war to date. Their trial and execution were supposed to be the culmination of the "liberation" of Ukraine. 3/
And then suddenly, when the cages for the tribunal were ready, they are swapped for the father of Putin's goddaughter. For Russian nationalists, this is akin to the USSR capturing General Rommel along with an SS division in 1942 and swapping them for Stalin's son. 4/
With the Kharkiv defeat, Putin has already turned a large part of Russian nationalists against himself, but today, by his betrayal, he has practically become their enemy number one making it clear to everyone that the idea of "denazifying Ukraine" was just a bluff. 5/
And as if that wasn't enough, on the same day, by announcing the mobilisation, Putin also destroyed Russia's main social contract of the last 30 years - you let us get rich and we stay out of your private life. 6/
This will soon anger not only politicised activists but a huge apolitical part of the population, something completely unprecedented. It's still too early but I'm pretty sure future historians will mark 21.09.22 as one of the key days in the fall of Putin's Russia. 7/7

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More from @TadeuszGiczan

Apr 13
Przez przypadek odkryłem coś tak dziwnego, że muszę się tym koniecznie podzielić. Okazuje się, że białoruskie służby specjalne stworzyły w Telegramie cały ekosystem informacyjny skierowany do Polaków myślących samodzielnie. Krótki wątek 1/
Wczoraj największy białoruski kanał propagandowy udostępnił wpis kanału "Ktoś" prowadzonego w języku polskim. Kanał ten został stworzony w październiku 2020 podczas protestów antyaborcyjnych przez jednego z białoruskich propagandystów jako parodia na nextę. 2/
Od tamtego czasu nic nie było o nim słychać, więc myślałem, że ten projekt już dawno nie żyję. Otóż nic bardziej mylnego. "Ktoś" nadal ma się całkiem nieźle, a co najważniejsze jego twórcy stworzyły też dziesiątki innych kanałów w języku polskim o tzw. tematyce szurowskiej. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Apr 4
Yesterday, RIA Novosti published a lengthy piece titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine", which explains in detail what Russia understands by denazification. It's truly horrific: 1/6 Image
The special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people. 2/6 Image
Ukrainians disguise their Nazism by calling it a "desire for independence" and a "European way of development". Ukraine doesn't have a Nazi party, a Führer or racial laws, but because of its flexibility, Ukrainian Nazism is far more dangerous to the world than Hitler's Nazism 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 28
In other news: according to official figures, 65% of Belarusians voted yesterday in favour of the new "transitional" constitution, which Lukashenko was pushed into by Russia. Despite the war, it's still kinda important development, so very briefly what's next. 1/
The main change is the reduction of presidential powers and the creation of a new body that will control the president (All-Belarusian People's Assembly). Lukashenko plans to combine the posts of president and APA chairman for the first two years or so. 2/
Next, he plans to appoint the current speaker, Natalya Kochanova, as president, while remaining the APA chairman. Kochanova is as much a Soviet person as Lukashenko and the most loyal of his apparatchiks, so Lukashenko expects to continue to control everything through her. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 6
This week I’m away in the mountains, so don't have much time to write, but like everyone else I’m following the situation in Kazakhstan. Here’s my layman’s attempt to make sense of what the hell is going on there. A thread 1/
First, what triggered the protests? A sudden doubling of the gas price. Every autocrat knows that a sharp rise in price of essential commodities is bound to spark mass protests of the working class. For example, in Belarus they raise petrol price every week but only by 1 cent. 2/
Kazakh autocrats aren’t fools either, they understand perfectly well how it works. That’s why Tokayev is right when he says that KazMunayGas and KazakGas are responsible. But mistakes happen, and the decision to raise gas prices may well not have a second bottom. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Nov 29, 2021
Lukashenko has just promised that if there is a new war in Donbas, "Belarus will not stay aside. And it is clear whose side we will be on." Seems like this map from the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov is not that alarmist after all.
Also, Belarus Defence Minister Khrenin has just announced that Minsk will hold a joint military exercise with Russia on the Belarus-Ukraine border (!)
Reports are coming that as early as today the entire Belarusian 6th Tank Brigade is due to start moving from Grodno, where it is normally based, to the border with Ukraine.…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 29, 2021
Humanitarian crisis artificially created by the Lukashenko’s regime continues (short thread). Every day some 500 migrants arrive at Minsk intl airport with the intention to get to Germany via Poland. Hundreds of them are stuck at the airport waiting to get their entry visas 1/4
Today Poland reported the highest daily number of attempts to illegally cross the border – 473. Yesterday Polish border guard published a video in which – it claims – Belarusian servicemen are helping migrants to cross the barbed wire fence with a ladder 2/4
Last week alone five migrants died on the Poland-Belarus border due to low temperatures. However, it doesn’t stop the rest. On the contrary, sellers in Minsk report migrants are buying up tents, gas burners, fishermen clothes, and are willing to storm the border anyway 3/4
Read 5 tweets

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