'Russian spies' detained yesterday in Poland turned out to be citizens of Belarus. Belarusian state media are so eager to prove their innocence that they have published all their personal details (how did they know who exactly was detained?) and even interviews with relatives. 1/ Have a look if you happen to know Russian. Someone clearly stayed up all night to post texts first thing in the morning about how these are ordinary students, with their biographies and interviews with their parents, ex-wives and whatnot (see links below). 2/

A bizarre thread on how a standoff on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border turned into a full-scale "billboard war" in just one week. It started on 8 March when Ukrainian soldiers guarding the border with Belarus put up billboards reading "Occupiers have no place on Ukrainian soil" 1/ In response, a few days later, Belarusian border guards installed two billboards: one with a US flag and the inscription "We will help Ukraine find the real occupiers", and the other saying "Belarus remembers" with pictures of World War II. 2/

Saw the news about Viktor Bout's exchange and remembered the truly wild story of how he was arrested and what Belarus had to do with it. In the late 1980s, Bout served as a military interpreter in an aviation regiment in Vitebsk, Belarus. 1/ After the Soviet Union collapsed, the regiment was disbanded and Bout opened his own air transport company in the UAE, using IL-76 aircraft from the former Vitebsk regiment, quickly becoming the main arms broker in the post-Soviet space. 2/

On Shoigu's unexpected visit to Minsk. It was most likely arranged yesterday after Putin's phone call to Lukashenko. First, Shoigu together with his Belarusian counterpart signed amendments to the 1997 security treaty (signed in a hurry, at the airfield, not at MoD HQ). 1/4 Shoigu then went straight to Lukashenko, who was playing hockey on his day off. He thanked him for training Russian mobiks (the first time this was publicly acknowledged) and said that the joint regional grouping "already looks like a sort of force that can carry out tasks". 2/4

Let me try to explain what's wrong with the new wave of deployment of Russian troops in Belarus and why the threat of a new attack on Kyiv from the north is a bluff.

A🧵 1/ Last week Lukashenko announced the deployment of a joint Belarusian-Russian regional grouping of troops composed of Belarusian ground forces and several thousand Russian troops (Belarusian MoD later specified there would be 9,000 of them). 2/

The release of the Azov leadership is an even bigger blow to Russian nationalists than the Kharkiv retreat. The retreat could be explained by the mistakes of the military, while the release of the Azov command undermines the very idea of "denazification". 1/

A🧵 Russian propaganda has been demonising the Azov regiment for the last eight years, telling stories about how they "kill Russian children of Donbas". They have become something like the SS and have been opposed to ordinary Ukrainian soldiers "who are just like us". 2/

Przez przypadek odkryłem coś tak dziwnego, że muszę się tym koniecznie podzielić. Okazuje się, że białoruskie służby specjalne stworzyły w Telegramie cały ekosystem informacyjny skierowany do Polaków myślących samodzielnie. Krótki wątek 1/ Wczoraj największy białoruski kanał propagandowy udostępnił wpis kanału "Ktoś" prowadzonego w języku polskim. Kanał ten został stworzony w październiku 2020 podczas protestów antyaborcyjnych przez jednego z białoruskich propagandystów jako parodia na nextę. 2/

Yesterday, RIA Novosti published a lengthy piece titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine", which explains in detail what Russia understands by denazification. It's truly horrific: 1/6 The special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people. 2/6

In other news: according to official figures, 65% of Belarusians voted yesterday in favour of the new "transitional" constitution, which Lukashenko was pushed into by Russia. Despite the war, it's still kinda important development, so very briefly what's next. 1/ The main change is the reduction of presidential powers and the creation of a new body that will control the president (All-Belarusian People's Assembly). Lukashenko plans to combine the posts of president and APA chairman for the first two years or so. 2/

This week I’m away in the mountains, so don't have much time to write, but like everyone else I’m following the situation in Kazakhstan. Here’s my layman’s attempt to make sense of what the hell is going on there. A thread 1/ First, what triggered the protests? A sudden doubling of the gas price. Every autocrat knows that a sharp rise in price of essential commodities is bound to spark mass protests of the working class. For example, in Belarus they raise petrol price every week but only by 1 cent. 2/

Lukashenko has just promised that if there is a new war in Donbas, "Belarus will not stay aside. And it is clear whose side we will be on." Seems like this map from the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov is not that alarmist after all. Also, Belarus Defence Minister Khrenin has just announced that Minsk will hold a joint military exercise with Russia on the Belarus-Ukraine border (!)

Humanitarian crisis artificially created by the Lukashenko’s regime continues (short thread). Every day some 500 migrants arrive at Minsk intl airport with the intention to get to Germany via Poland. Hundreds of them are stuck at the airport waiting to get their entry visas 1/4 Today Poland reported the highest daily number of attempts to illegally cross the border – 473. Yesterday Polish border guard published a video in which – it claims – Belarusian servicemen are helping migrants to cross the barbed wire fence with a ladder 2/4

A short thread about what is perhaps the most successful cyber attack in the history of any nation state conducted by a group called “Belarusian Cyber-partisans”. Last month they hacked the servers of Belarusian police and the Interior Ministry. 1/6 First they’ve downloaded the entire “АИС Паспорт” database which contains all personal details of every Belarusian citizen including passport photos, home address, place of work (including those with restricted access who work in KGB and other special services) 2/6

❗️On Friday after she criticised Belarus national team’s management the regime media started a “you are a disgrace to your nation” campaign against her. She said she’s now afraid to return to Belarus but the officials took her to the Tokyo airport by force. Her flight is in 3 hrs

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1421781150868066309

Japanese police have arrived to the airport. “I am with the police right now. They are deciding what could be done” - Tsimanouskaya.

Belarusian authorities started to smuggle illegal immigrants from Iraq to Europe. A video shows Lithuanians building a temporary camp for migrants coming from Belarus. Lithuania says a state of emergency could be declared if the situation gets worse. Meanwhile, we received 1/4 information that Belarusian authorities have not only opened Belarus-Lithuania border for illegal immigrants from Iraq, but are actively involved in trafficking. The scheme involves Tsentrkurort travel company (controlled by Lukashenko) and Iraqi Airways. Hundreds of Iraqis 2/4

I’m away this week with almost no internet so just a quick comment. This morning Putin has publicly endorsed Lukashenko and stated that Belarus election was free and fair. This comes on top of his recent statement that Russia has formed a strategic reserve in case situation in 1/ Belarus gets out of Luka’s control. Predictably, Russia placed its bet on weak and compliant Lukashenko. Yesterday Luka said that Belarus won’t wait for the West to impose sanctions, it’s going to impose its own anti-EU sanctions first. Belarus will stop illegally reexporting 2/

Minsk protesters are about to move towards Lukashenko's palace, some 1 km away from where they are right now. Security forces blocked the road leading to Lukashenko's residence so we have another standoff. Telegram channels call on people to turn around and go back to the centre