Webb-site Profile picture
Sep 23 5 tweets 2 min read
Too little, too late: Today's #HK COVID briefing was devoid of any reference to what our competitors are doing. Arrivals will still be welcomed with a PCR test, treated like lepers for 3 days and have to turn up for PCR testing 3 more times on days 2/4/6. 1/5
Prof Lo claims that testing will stop new strains entering, but of course it won't - we'll just know that they've arrived, raising prospect of stricter controls if they're found. As strains will evolve forever, that's an argument for testing forever. 2/5
There is no change to ridiculous requirements like RAT-test before going to bars (but not restaurants), or dining in groups >8 "with a common purpose", a group-gathering limit of 4 (even if outdoors), mandatory masks outdoors (but not in restaurants) etc. 3/5
And let's not forget the misnamed "LeaveHomeSafe" contact-tracing app, which everyone still has to use to enter any museum, eatery, gym, hair salon or other "scheduled premises" - grown-up countries have dropped all of that. #HK, Asia's Weird City. 4/5
There is one possible marketing spin though: position #HK as a "living museum", where nostalgic visitors can experience what life was like under draconian COVID laws, long after their countries have returned to normality. 5/5

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More from @webbhk

Feb 10
The #HK Govt's Compulsory Testing Notices create huge queues and overwhelm the testing capacity with people who mostly don't feel ill, rather than those who actually need a test. Utter madness, and perhaps a million person-hours of wasted time. 1/2 scmp.com/news/hong-kong…
This results in delayed diagnosis and likely further spread of infections by unconfirmed cases. Stop the Compulsory Testing and focus on those who need it! 2/2
Read 4 tweets
Feb 5
The #HK Government has already lost control of this outbreak and "Dynamic Zero-COVID" is history. They just don't know it or won't admit it yet. Here's why (thread):
1. There's a 2-3 day lag between testing & reporting, and a 2-3 day lag between infection & testing.
2. That's a total of about 5 days between infection and reporting.
3. The doubling time in unlinked cases, a proxy for growth in the wild, is around 4 days, so 2^(5/4)=2.38x for the number of cases infected today and reported in 5 days' time.
4. For every 2 reported cases, there's maybe 1 who doesn't come forward, vaxed with mild symptoms, given the disincentives (throwing all their contacts into the quarantine system). They may self-test using a RAT. So 2.38*1.5=3.57x.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 29, 2021
Legislator Paul Tse asks Govt today about the HK Club's Central site, implying some sort of sweetheart deal, and gets a rather uninformative answer, so let's help him out... info.gov.hk/gia/general/20…
The Club purchased the 999-year lease (the normal duration then) on Marine Lot 274, in a Public Auction at 3pm on 20-Feb-1894, with a reserve price of HK$52,800...
It sold for $52,825. By comparison, in Nov-1894 Governor Sir William Robinson estimated that total Govt revenue for 1894 would be $2,186,506 (Hansard, 28-Nov-1894) . So the land premium on this prime site was about 2.42% of Govt revenue for the year...legco.gov.hk/1894-95/h94112…
Read 8 tweets

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