Wow! In macro-economic terms that is a very substantial 'give-away' mini-budget. In the teeth of the Global Financial Crisis CX Darling put just over £21bn into the economy with a temp VAT cut (progressive) the headline. Today's (and May's) announcements inject £77.2bn in 3yrs /1
That is a bold gambit to boost the economy and emphasises the gravity of the situation. But does it just park the problem onto the future? fuel the inflation crisis? put greater pressure on interest rates? raise government borrowing costs as fiscal prudence is now gone? /2
What is not in doubt is that the poorest in society have not been helped directly in this mini-budget. Measures on benefits will have to follow and urgently. This is a major concern. This is doubling down on the 1980's trickle down economics that the US President just rejected /3
For viewers in Scotland these moves emphasise the core flaw in the devolution settlement. Suspend the unionist/nationalist thinking for a moment: the Scottish Government cannot take a mini version of this approach because they have very minimal borrowing capacity. So ..../4
If they apply the relevant measures in Scotland they cannot make good on the spend side on the NHS & everything else in the way the Chancellor just did by borrowing. So they can only pray HMT's new found growth thinking works. Praying wont make ends meet (sorry Archbishop) /5
So @JohnSwinney will be damned if he does or if he doesnt. And can he make political choices to do more for the poorest also that electorate would want? His scope here is very limited. We live in historic times indeed. You get the feeling that fundamental shifts are underway /6
All of this before we address the issues that drove the UK into recession pre Covid aka "Long Brexit" and the absence of any policy for growth and productivity. As the average Briton is overtaken in income standards by the average Slovenian and Pole maybe they will notice. /END
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