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Sep 23 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
Video reportedly of a Iranian Shahed-136 loitering munition over Odesa.
t.me/c/1450213869/3…
Another video. 2/
t.me/c/1450213869/3…
Footage of a strike in Odesa. 3/
t.me/c/1199360700/6…
Another video from Odesa. 4/
t.me/c/1199360700/6…
Another video of a Shahed-136 over Odesa. 5/
t.me/c/1450213869/3…
Reportedly the aftermath of a Shahed-136 loitering munition strike in Odesa. 6/
t.me/odessa_typical…
A gas station in Odesa was also reportedly struck by a Shahed-136. 7/
t.me/now_odessa/267…
8/
Ukraine's Operational Southern Command said that one Shahed-136 was shot down. 9/
10/
Correction: it appears the gas station explosion is unrelated. 11/
Video of a Shahed-136 loitering munition strike in Odesa. 12/
t.me/odessa_typical…
A Shahed-136 getting shot down reportedly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 13/
t.me/c/1199360700/6…

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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 24
The Ukrainian military says that paratroopers from the 25th Airborne Brigade shot down Su-25 and Su-30 (Su-30SM) aircraft today. The footage shows the Su-30SM.
facebook.com/www.dshv.mil.g…
The Ukrainian General Staff claims they destroyed a Su-25, two Su-30, a Su-34 (possibly in the above video), and 5 UAVs. Russian Telegram channels confirm it was a bad day for Russian aviation. 2/
facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
t.me/fighter_bomber…
t.me/voenacher/29584 ImageImageImage
Video from Ukrainian SSO reportedly showing the Su-34 that was shot down today with an Igla MANPADS.
t.me/ukr_sof/286
Read 8 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 21
Safe to say there will be many Russian Telegram channels and military bloggers who will not be happy about this swap.
A sample of some of the responses. 2/
3/
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 21
Thread:
1) There are more unknowns than knowns at this point
2) It is one of the most significant/riskiest political decisions Putin has ever made
3) He is still resisting a broader mobilization
4) It is an acknowledgment that Russia's war was failing and a change had to be made
Much of this depends on how this order is applied. The number of reservists with combat experience is limited, though they may include everyone who deployed to Syria. Shoigu is notoriously unreliable when it comes to figures so don't treat them as fact. 2/
There are two important immediate effects from this order: conscripts currently serving in the Russian military likely will be deployed to fight in Ukraine, and volunteers serving on short contracts will be stop-lossed into continuing to serve. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 20
My tentative view is that the Kremlin is still resisting mobilization and will try everything short of it first (e.g. recruiting prisoners). Russia's strategy since April has involved a # of short-term solutions strung together in hopes that they would lead to long-term success.
The medium and long-term military factors favor Ukraine. This may achieve short-term benefits, but it would likely lead to greater problems over time. Conscripts currently serving will be less likely to sign contracts and a much higher % of Russians will dodge the fall draft. 2/
If Russia decides to escalate, the first step would likely be to deploy the conscript battalions in the Russian military rather than necessarily mobilizing Russian society or conscripting civilians across Russia. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 20
I wonder if this will actually be passed, or if it is designed as a threat to coerce currently serving Russian servicemen who are refusing to deploy.
The number of Russian soldiers who are refusing to fight is not an insignificant number. 20-40% of units in some cases. Getting them to fight, even if unmotivated, would provide an important manpower boost. But it is still a short-term solution to a longer-term problem.
Good point. Even if passed, it isn't clear how it will be applied. The Kremlin certainly hopes this is enough to coerce refuseniks to fight, but doesn't actually want to put many soldiers in prison. Maybe there will one or two well-publicized cases. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 19
Video from Ukraine's Terra unit showing a tank battle in the Kherson direction.
Footage of the tank battle in Kherson Oblast. 2/
Footage of three Russian T-72 series tanks firing at Ukrainian positions. They then come under UAV-corrected artillery fire and retreat. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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