When you are a Boomer Central Banker, everything looks like the ghost of the 1970's...heuristic bias will give unexpected outcomes (deflation) when total debt to GDP is this
Meanwhile, memes rule the world and the Central Bankers in their late 60's worship this meme: Wrong person for these times.
But the politicians (in their 70's mainly) are focussed on this meme...The Pension Crisis, where the system is forced to bail out past unkept promises. Voters will win in the end and household bail outs will come.
Everyone else can just worship #REKTGUY as rents are unaffordable, property remains unaffordable, real wages cant rise and central bankers are busy destroying wealth to get on the front of a book.
And the robots are coming for your jobs...
Everyone has to figure out in this broken system how they are going to make it. WAGMI? Depends what you own. I like the own the thing that destroys the old system. You can fight technology or invest in it but it ain't going away...
You can fight QE but it ain't going away (the debt is too damned high and Boomers are too damned old).
The J-Po might want to be Volker but the politicians will win (its the voters, stupid!) and the cowbell will return and when it does...
You need to own the stuff that goes up the most.
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A bit of shade being thrown about the Banana Zone. Let me clarify...
Macro Summer and Fall are driven by the global liquidity cycle that exhibits clear cyclicality since 2008.
Why since 2008? Well, back then the worlds all reset their interest payments to zero and they debt maturity to 3 to 4 years, creating a perfect macro cycle.
You can see the perfect cyclicality in ISM (the best guide to the business cycle)
Well, the genesis of ALL my thinking comes from Global Macro Investor, where @BittelJulien and I do our deep thinking each month (120 pages+).
I'm immensely proud of GMI and Ive been writing it for 20 years.... 1/
It is an expensive research service and is subscribed to by many of the world's largest hedge funds (usually the principals), SWF's, Asset managers, RIA's, Family Offices and HNW investors.
It also has the best proven and recorded track record of any research service...ever.
A 20-year track record of performance is not something that any other service provides.
My track record has many 100% plus years (thank you crypto!), many decent years, some so so and some bad ones. But it is all timestamped and transparent.
What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?
Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/
And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis...
And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall...