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Resolution Foundation Profile picture
@resfoundation
Sep 23, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Huge tax cuts and a borrowing surge: The Chancellor has opted to boost short term growth and interest rates while setting the public finances on an unsustainable path – here are five key takeaways from today’s #MiniBudget – THREAD
1 - £45 billion of tax cuts were announced today – going far beyond election promises to cancel corporation tax increases and reverse this year’s National Insurance rise. Graphic reading: Biggest tax cuts since the 1970s: The £45
These are the largest tax cuts to be announced in a single fiscal event since the 1970s. Net long-term annual impact of tax policy announcements at e
2 - No previous Chancellor has increased borrowing by so much: The decision to combine the largely unavoidable higher deficit caused by rising energy prices/interest rates with permanent tax cuts will drive up borrowing by £411 billion in coming years. Graphic reading: A record increase in borrowing: Combining t
Borrowing is expected to increase by £265 billion over the next five years, due to the additional packages of energy support combined with the deterioration of the economic outlook since March, while tax cuts of £146 billion will raise that to £411 billion. Borrowing is expected to increase by £265 billion over the
3 – Future spending cuts could be on the cards: The Chancellor has said that debt falling remains his key metric for fiscal sustainability – but achieving that during the middle of this decade could require spending cuts of £35 billion in 2026-27. Future spending cuts on the cards? The Chancellor has said t
4 - Almost two-thirds (65%) of the gains from the personal tax cuts announced will go to the richest fifth of households... Tax cuts at the top: Almost two-thirds (65%) of the gains fr
.. meaning that this richest fifth of households will be better-off on average by £3,090 next year. Almost half of gains will go to the richest 5 per cent, while the poorest half of households will gain just £230 on average next year. Impact of tax and benefit policies announced in September 20
5 – Caution is needed on growth: While energy support will boost GDP this winter, the borrowing required will also mean higher interest rates. Growth in the years ahead is likely to be driven far more by the path of energy prices than the tax cuts announced today. Caution needed on growth: While energy support will boost G
Read the full reaction from RF Chief Executive @TorstenBell here - and keep an eye out first thing tomorrow for out full overnight analysis resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases… Torsten Bell, Chief Executive at the Resolution Foundation,

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More from @resfoundation

Resolution Foundation Profile picture
May 8
Since 1997 earnings have doubled, while house prices have increased *4.5 times*.

Our Research Director Lindsay Judge spoke to @BBCr4today this morning about the state of British housing 🏡🧵
Our current housing crisis is decades in the making.

The UK is not alone in considering itself in the midst of a crisis, but our cramped and ageing housing offers the worst value for money of any advanced economy.
Looking at 'imputed rents' of homeowners as well as actual rents, we spend more on housing than almost every other rich country.

💸 what's making our homes so pricey? 💸 Chart showing Actual and imputed rents as a proportion of total consumption: OECD countries, 2019
Read 7 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
Mar 7
Back for more? - the Resolution Foundation overnight analysis of the 2024 Spring Budget is out now!



To whet your appetite ahead of reading the full report, here's a six-chart thread with a few of the key highlights....
⬇️⬇️⬇️resolutionfoundation.org/publications/b…
1) Filling out the tax sandwich.

A net tax cut of £9 billion is taking effect in the election year. But this is dwarfed by the estimated £27 billion of tax rises that came into effect last year (2023-24) and the £19 billion that are coming in after the election (2025-27). Image
2) Shifting state support from the rich to the poor.

RF analysis of all major tax and benefit policies announced in this parliament show finds that typical households are set to gain £420 a year on average, while the poorest fifth gain £840 and the richest fifth lose £1,500. Image
Read 8 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
Feb 26
Kicking off our event @_louisemurphy says that Britain has a youth mental health crisis. One-in-three 18-24-year-olds report having a common mental disorder, rising two-in-five young women. Image
This is having real-world impacts.

On health, more than half a million 18-24-year-olds were prescribed anti-depressants in 2021-22. Image
And on the labour market, people in their early 20s are now more likely to be economically inactive due to ill-health than those in their early 40s. This is a big shift over the past 25 years... Image
Read 12 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
Nov 23, 2023
The chancellor has gone for broke on pre-election giveaways. Meanwhile, households are broke, after getting £1,900 poorer over the course of this parliament.

🚨 Full RF analysis of yesterday’s #AutumnStatement is out now. A thread… 🧵⤵️ resolutionfoundation.org/publications/a…
Graphic with quote from Torsten Bell: “Jeremy Hunt yesterday got his pre-election giveaways in early, with an Autumn Statement offering tax cuts today, at the price of implausible spending cuts tomorrow. Well-targeted specifics, addressing problems such as our tax system’s bias against working-age earnings or benefit system’s failure to keep pace with fast rising rents, were juxtaposed with far less well-designed big picture fiscal choices. Tax cutting rhetoric clashed with tax rising reality, and positive steps to encourage business investment combined with a growth sapping hit to public i...
Key takeaways to remember ⤵️

💸 Pre-election tax-cuts today rest on implausible spending cuts tomorrow

💼Well-targeted policies to address tax system bias were welcome

✋As are steps to encourage business investment (but undercut by deeper cuts to public investment)
First up, some of the pain has been delayed.

The @OBR_UK shifted slow economic growth into the future.

The UK economy was more resilient than expected this year (growth revised ⬆️from -0.2% to 0.6%), but things look worse next year (growth revised ⬇️from 1.8% to 0.7%). chart showing Forecasts for real GDP growth, in November 2023 (left panel) and March 2023 (right panel): UK
Read 20 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
Nov 1, 2023
Speaking at our event, Mary Starks of @FlintGlobal highlights the centrality of moderning our power and water infrastructure for our net zero transition. Regulators will play a key role in driving these changes (and will inevitably be unpopular for doing it!) Image
Mary highlights a key challenge - we know we need to invest a LOT to modernise our infrastructure. But we don't know what investments will actuallly pay off. That's a key challenge for both investors and policy makers... Image
Another big infrastrucuture challenge - persuading investors that projects will pay off over a 30-50 year period, and won't be pushed off course by electoral cycles. This is a big task for regulators overseeing these projects, and is getting harder as the scale of need grows. Image
Read 5 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
May 25, 2023
Today’s migration statistics confirm that post-Brexit migration change has been big – but some of the change is different to what many of us expected... summary 🧵 from RF's @charliejmccurdy ⬇️
The latest migration data for the year ending December 2022 showed that overall net migration rose to 606,000 – driven primarily by non-EU migration (662,000). Long-term international net...
Among non-EU migrants, the most common reasons for coming to the UK were to study (39%) to work (25%) or for humanitarian reasons (19%). The recent rise has been driven by unique factors, such as the Ukraine war and the end of Covid-19 restrictions (more students arrived). Long term international imm...
Read 12 tweets

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