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Resolution Foundation Profile picture
@resfoundation
Sep 23, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Huge tax cuts and a borrowing surge: The Chancellor has opted to boost short term growth and interest rates while setting the public finances on an unsustainable path – here are five key takeaways from today’s #MiniBudget – THREAD
1 - £45 billion of tax cuts were announced today – going far beyond election promises to cancel corporation tax increases and reverse this year’s National Insurance rise. Graphic reading: Biggest tax cuts since the 1970s: The £45
These are the largest tax cuts to be announced in a single fiscal event since the 1970s. Net long-term annual impact of tax policy announcements at e
2 - No previous Chancellor has increased borrowing by so much: The decision to combine the largely unavoidable higher deficit caused by rising energy prices/interest rates with permanent tax cuts will drive up borrowing by £411 billion in coming years. Graphic reading: A record increase in borrowing: Combining t
Borrowing is expected to increase by £265 billion over the next five years, due to the additional packages of energy support combined with the deterioration of the economic outlook since March, while tax cuts of £146 billion will raise that to £411 billion. Borrowing is expected to increase by £265 billion over the
3 – Future spending cuts could be on the cards: The Chancellor has said that debt falling remains his key metric for fiscal sustainability – but achieving that during the middle of this decade could require spending cuts of £35 billion in 2026-27. Future spending cuts on the cards? The Chancellor has said t
4 - Almost two-thirds (65%) of the gains from the personal tax cuts announced will go to the richest fifth of households... Tax cuts at the top: Almost two-thirds (65%) of the gains fr
.. meaning that this richest fifth of households will be better-off on average by £3,090 next year. Almost half of gains will go to the richest 5 per cent, while the poorest half of households will gain just £230 on average next year. Impact of tax and benefit policies announced in September 20
5 – Caution is needed on growth: While energy support will boost GDP this winter, the borrowing required will also mean higher interest rates. Growth in the years ahead is likely to be driven far more by the path of energy prices than the tax cuts announced today. Caution needed on growth: While energy support will boost G
Read the full reaction from RF Chief Executive @TorstenBell here - and keep an eye out first thing tomorrow for out full overnight analysis resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases… Torsten Bell, Chief Executive at the Resolution Foundation,

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More from @resfoundation

Resolution Foundation Profile picture
Mar 19
The Government’s new Health and Disability Green Paper will deliver tiny income gains for up to four million households, at a cost of major income losses for those who are too ill to work or no longer qualify for disability benefit support. 🧵⤵️
The gains? A boost Universal Credit (UC) support for up to four million families without any health conditions or disability by around £3 a week.

But these are overshadowed by reforms that risk causing major income losses for those too ill to work, or no longer qualify for disability benefits.
The Government plans to save £5 billion through restricting PIP by making it harder to qualify for the ‘daily living’ component.

PIP is a benefit paid regardless of whether someone is in work, to compensate for the additional costs of being disabled.
Read 8 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
Mar 11
There are rumours that the Government is looking to cut the benefits bill as it tries to reduce public spending.

But has there been a huge rise in welfare spending in recent years? A quick thread👇
Social security spending rose by around 1% of GDP from the eve of the financial crash to last year, driven by rising spending on the State Pension and non-pensioner health-related benefits.

A rise yes, but hardly ‘huge’. So, is the problem rising welfare spending in the future? Image
The @DWP forecast is in fact for welfare spending to stay flat as a proportion of GDP from now until 2029-30, with forecast rises in spending on health-related benefits offset by the rollout of around £3bn of planned cuts to other non-pensioner benefits. Image
Read 10 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
Mar 5
Earlier today the justice secretary pointed to a “huge rise in the welfare budget” as justification for benefit cuts to reduce public spending. So, how big has the rise in welfare spending been? 🧵
Social security spending rose by around 1% of GDP from the eve of the financial crash to last year, driven by rising spending on the State Pension and non-pensioner health-related benefits.
A rise yes, but hardly ‘huge’. So, is the problem rising welfare spending in the future? Image
The @DWP forecast is in fact for welfare spending to stay flat as a proportion of GDP from now until 2029-30, with forecast rises in spending on health-related benefits offset by the rollout of around £3bn of planned cuts to other non-pensioner benefits. Image
Read 10 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
May 8, 2024
Since 1997 earnings have doubled, while house prices have increased *4.5 times*.

Our Research Director Lindsay Judge spoke to @BBCr4today this morning about the state of British housing 🏡🧵
Our current housing crisis is decades in the making.

The UK is not alone in considering itself in the midst of a crisis, but our cramped and ageing housing offers the worst value for money of any advanced economy.
Looking at 'imputed rents' of homeowners as well as actual rents, we spend more on housing than almost every other rich country.

💸 what's making our homes so pricey? 💸 Chart showing Actual and imputed rents as a proportion of total consumption: OECD countries, 2019
Read 7 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
Mar 7, 2024
Back for more? - the Resolution Foundation overnight analysis of the 2024 Spring Budget is out now!



To whet your appetite ahead of reading the full report, here's a six-chart thread with a few of the key highlights....
⬇️⬇️⬇️resolutionfoundation.org/publications/b…
1) Filling out the tax sandwich.

A net tax cut of £9 billion is taking effect in the election year. But this is dwarfed by the estimated £27 billion of tax rises that came into effect last year (2023-24) and the £19 billion that are coming in after the election (2025-27). Image
2) Shifting state support from the rich to the poor.

RF analysis of all major tax and benefit policies announced in this parliament show finds that typical households are set to gain £420 a year on average, while the poorest fifth gain £840 and the richest fifth lose £1,500. Image
Read 8 tweets
Resolution Foundation Profile picture
Feb 26, 2024
Kicking off our event @_louisemurphy says that Britain has a youth mental health crisis. One-in-three 18-24-year-olds report having a common mental disorder, rising two-in-five young women. Image
This is having real-world impacts.

On health, more than half a million 18-24-year-olds were prescribed anti-depressants in 2021-22. Image
And on the labour market, people in their early 20s are now more likely to be economically inactive due to ill-health than those in their early 40s. This is a big shift over the past 25 years... Image
Read 12 tweets

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