The Iranian Shahed-136 drone in the Russian's hands is acting as a small propeller cruise missile several hundred kilometers from the nearest Russian position.
No USAF, USMC or US Army airbase or heliport is safe from such munitions
1/14
Long range precision strike, to a depth of 1,800 km, is a game that anyone can play in now.
The US Military services have lost air superiority below 3,000 feet, and it is unclear if they will get it back for decades.
The mal-investment in the utterly irrelevant to this
2/14
...threat F-35 is a large part of the problem.
The F-35 is simply cost INEFFECTIVE for this threat, but the political-military factions invested in it will force it to be used for dealing with lawn mower engine powered drones with air-to-air missiles costing up to 50 times
3/14
...what a Shahed-136 costs.
Drones like this are to the F-35 what the Maxim machine gun was to horse cavalry.
Drone technology has reduced the unique utilities of crewed fighters to smaller & smaller roles, compared to their costs, that it is becoming unaffordable to use
4/14
...them at all.
Drones are a military-technological tool set that has such low economic barriers to entry anyone can use them to achieve most of what an F-35 does in the reconnaissance & prompt strike roles out to 150 km from the forward line of troops.
5/14
The 1,800 km straight line attack distance with satellite guidance & commercial satellite photo digital scene mapping correlation allows for an "air force in a box" that can contest air superiority by blarfing swarms of drones over F-35 air
...bases at distances the F-35 simply could not respond to the launcher.
It is really easy to hide what amounts to a dump truck filled with racks of drones from a commercial satellite pass.
An F-35 air base? Not so much.
7/14
The logistics of even an US Army AH-64 Forward Area Armament and Refuel Point are bad enough with huge flexible fuel bladders that can be seen from orbit by commercial satellites.
A squadron of USMC or Royal Navy F-35B jump jets work on about ten times the fuel of a AH-64 attack helicopter battalion of 18 gunships.
The ability to hide aircraft carriers from satellites that track wakes is hard enough.
Fixed air bases that can be struck eight hours
9/14
...after a commercial satellite pass by drone swarms will require extensive air defenses that are also vulnerable to the same sorts of attack via radar satellite interference tracking.
The combination of commercial satellites and drones with SAM radar homing sensors will make Patriots, NASAM, S-300 & S-400 medium & long range SAM's vulnerable to anti-radar 'drone plinking' at 10 times the range of a HARM missile.
To deploy F-35 fuel logistics anywhere will require rings of high power microwave weapons around those bases and at all major fuel transit nodes to negate the Shahed-136 class threat to F-35 expeditionary fuel logistics.
Jet & chopper pilots are the horse cavalry of the 21st century.
They can become drone swarm wranglers or dead.
There are no other viable technological alternatives.
2/
The US Army field artillery isn't far behind in that technological obsolescence trend.
Also from the Uke Sitrep:
"Using drones for smaller targets beyond the front lines instead of standoff land attack cruise and ballistic missiles, which are very costly and in dwindling...
3/
Untrained Russian infantry with steel helmets, WW1 rifles, no radios, headed into winter, w/o winter boots, gloves, hats, sleeping bags, w/o trucks & supported by mobilized T-62 tanks with untrained crews are military liabilities, not combat power.
The chances of a 1917 style Russian Army collapse in Ukraine, followed by the disintegration of the Russian Federation actually INCREASE with the deployment of such troops.
3/4
Text clipped from the link:
"The good news here is that Putin’s announcement of emergency measures shows he recognises Russia is losing in its war of imperial expansion. The less good news is that if he believes even a tiny fraction of the lies and fantasies he reeled off...
2/5
...during the speech, his grip on reality is even shakier than we previously suspected.
And later in the column:
"In fact, few of Putin’s contradictory storylines stand up to even a moment’s critical thought: we are winning in Ukraine – but the forces of the west aligned...
3/5
"Sex tourism and sex trafficking in Iran are increasing. One contributing cause is the practice of sigheh. Sigheh (also known by its Arabic name “nikah mut‘ah”) allows men to marry a woman for a pre-determined period of time,
2/4
...have intimate relations with her, and then leave her without consequences. While sigheh is often justified using moral terms, in practice it is a legal loophole for prostitution. The problems associated with sigheh are rampant, but there is almost no research or data...
3/4
- Current conscripts can be ordered to the front & 'refuseniks' jailed.
- Stop loss on all Russian conscript & contract troops. They are all in for the duration of the war.
- Priority call up/conscription of former Russian soldiers with needed skills.
2/
- Administratively, new conscripts & contract troops will be used as replacements for existing units.
The previous four bullet points together represent potentially effective steps to delay a Russian lanchester square manpower collapse for up to three months.
3/