Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 23 14 tweets 5 min read
This is a "The World has changed" video.

The Iranian Shahed-136 drone in the Russian's hands is acting as a small propeller cruise missile several hundred kilometers from the nearest Russian position.

No USAF, USMC or US Army airbase or heliport is safe from such munitions
1/14
Long range precision strike, to a depth of 1,800 km, is a game that anyone can play in now.

The US Military services have lost air superiority below 3,000 feet, and it is unclear if they will get it back for decades.

The mal-investment in the utterly irrelevant to this
2/14
...threat F-35 is a large part of the problem.

The F-35 is simply cost INEFFECTIVE for this threat, but the political-military factions invested in it will force it to be used for dealing with lawn mower engine powered drones with air-to-air missiles costing up to 50 times
3/14
...what a Shahed-136 costs.

Drones like this are to the F-35 what the Maxim machine gun was to horse cavalry.

Drone technology has reduced the unique utilities of crewed fighters to smaller & smaller roles, compared to their costs, that it is becoming unaffordable to use
4/14
...them at all.

Drones are a military-technological tool set that has such low economic barriers to entry anyone can use them to achieve most of what an F-35 does in the reconnaissance & prompt strike roles out to 150 km from the forward line of troops.
5/14
The 1,800 km straight line attack distance with satellite guidance & commercial satellite photo digital scene mapping correlation allows for an "air force in a box" that can contest air superiority by blarfing swarms of drones over F-35 air

6/14
en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tec…
...bases at distances the F-35 simply could not respond to the launcher.

It is really easy to hide what amounts to a dump truck filled with racks of drones from a commercial satellite pass.

An F-35 air base? Not so much.

7/14 ImageImage
The logistics of even an US Army AH-64 Forward Area Armament and Refuel Point are bad enough with huge flexible fuel bladders that can be seen from orbit by commercial satellites.

c4isrnet.com/intel-geoint/2…
8/14 ImageImage
A squadron of USMC or Royal Navy F-35B jump jets work on about ten times the fuel of a AH-64 attack helicopter battalion of 18 gunships.

The ability to hide aircraft carriers from satellites that track wakes is hard enough.

Fixed air bases that can be struck eight hours
9/14 Image
...after a commercial satellite pass by drone swarms will require extensive air defenses that are also vulnerable to the same sorts of attack via radar satellite interference tracking.

10/14
Image
The combination of commercial satellites and drones with SAM radar homing sensors will make Patriots, NASAM, S-300 & S-400 medium & long range SAM's vulnerable to anti-radar 'drone plinking' at 10 times the range of a HARM missile.

11/14
To deploy F-35 fuel logistics anywhere will require rings of high power microwave weapons around those bases and at all major fuel transit nodes to negate the Shahed-136 class threat to F-35 expeditionary fuel logistics.

12/14
This is why I keep using the Maxim gun analogy.

Drones are to the F-35 logistical supply chain what the machine gun was to the horse.

Both the cavalry horse & F-35 fuel logistics are targets too big to miss and too vulnerable & expensive to defend/armor to remain useful.

13/14
And for all the F-35 fanboys this will bring out, to paraphrase a good line from a Bond movie:

No, I don't expect any of you to take me seriously.

I expect you all to die...

...logistically.

14/14 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Sep 25
This line from the @thewarzonewire Ukraine Situation Report is an utter killer for the F-35 fanboys.

"Drones can be expendable and cost-effective. Jets, helicopters, and pilots are not."

This pro-drone cost effectiveness trend is going asymptotic in the next 10 years.🧵

1/
Jet & chopper pilots are the horse cavalry of the 21st century.

They can become drone swarm wranglers or dead.

There are no other viable technological alternatives.

2/
The US Army field artillery isn't far behind in that technological obsolescence trend.

Also from the Uke Sitrep:

"Using drones for smaller targets beyond the front lines instead of standoff land attack cruise and ballistic missiles, which are very costly and in dwindling...

3/
Read 15 tweets
Sep 24
This post from a 21 Sep 2022 thread by @ChrisO_wiki is almost as important as the idea of Russian rail logistics in Ukraine.

Marker for the Future 🧵

All the Russian VDV & men in other "Regime Security Force/Elite" Russian units after 7 months have clocked over 180 days
1/
...in combat.

The slow rolling Russian collapse in Kherson and rapid one in Kharkiv reflects this physical fact.

Ukraine's immediate mass mobilization meant it could rotate units out of combat while Russia's manpower shortage meant it didn't.

Yes, Ukraine's 250K worth of
2/
... at start troops are near to that 180 day "clocking out."

The other 750K they have pulled in since February 2022 haven't.

Ukraine has had time to harden its recruits with exercise & military discipline necessary to survive the high stress environment of combat.

3/
Read 22 tweets
Sep 23
So, what do I think of the Russian mobilization?

Bodies without combined arms training, modern weapons, radios and adequate logistics are simply dead men walking.

1/4
Untrained Russian infantry with steel helmets, WW1 rifles, no radios, headed into winter, w/o winter boots, gloves, hats, sleeping bags, w/o trucks & supported by mobilized T-62 tanks with untrained crews are military liabilities, not combat power.

2/4
The chances of a 1917 style Russian Army collapse in Ukraine, followed by the disintegration of the Russian Federation actually INCREASE with the deployment of such troops.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21
Keir Giles has a really on-point reaction column to Putin's mobilization speech.

He brings the 🔥🔥🔥🔥

1/5

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Text clipped from the link:
"The good news here is that Putin’s announcement of emergency measures shows he recognises Russia is losing in its war of imperial expansion. The less good news is that if he believes even a tiny fraction of the lies and fantasies he reeled off...
2/5
...during the speech, his grip on reality is even shakier than we previously suspected.

And later in the column:

"In fact, few of Putin’s contradictory storylines stand up to even a moment’s critical thought: we are winning in Ukraine – but the forces of the west aligned...
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Sep 21
Check this link if you want to know the full Iranian cultural context of the chant "Khamenei is a pimp" in the video below.

1/4
mei.edu/publications/t…
This is the opening paragraph from the link:

"Sex tourism and sex trafficking in Iran are increasing. One contributing cause is the practice of sigheh. Sigheh (also known by its Arabic name “nikah mut‘ah”) allows men to marry a woman for a pre-determined period of time,
2/4
...have intimate relations with her, and then leave her without consequences. While sigheh is often justified using moral terms, in practice it is a legal loophole for prostitution. The problems associated with sigheh are rampant, but there is almost no research or data...
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21
@RALee85 has a very useful thread here explaining the mobilization Putin has put into effect for Russia.

Read it all👇

My takeaways🧵
My immediate takeaways:

- Current conscripts can be ordered to the front & 'refuseniks' jailed.
- Stop loss on all Russian conscript & contract troops. They are all in for the duration of the war.
- Priority call up/conscription of former Russian soldiers with needed skills.
2/
- Administratively, new conscripts & contract troops will be used as replacements for existing units.

The previous four bullet points together represent potentially effective steps to delay a Russian lanchester square manpower collapse for up to three months.
3/
Read 11 tweets

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