So, what do I think of the Russian mobilization?

Bodies without combined arms training, modern weapons, radios and adequate logistics are simply dead men walking.

1/4
Untrained Russian infantry with steel helmets, WW1 rifles, no radios, headed into winter, w/o winter boots, gloves, hats, sleeping bags, w/o trucks & supported by mobilized T-62 tanks with untrained crews are military liabilities, not combat power.

2/4
The chances of a 1917 style Russian Army collapse in Ukraine, followed by the disintegration of the Russian Federation actually INCREASE with the deployment of such troops.

3/4
Russian mobilization simply does not increase the length of time before Russia is defeated in Ukraine.

All it is going to do is increase the scale of the Russian defeat to include the break up of the Russian state.

4/4

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More from @TrentTelenko

Sep 24
This post from a 21 Sep 2022 thread by @ChrisO_wiki is almost as important as the idea of Russian rail logistics in Ukraine.

Marker for the Future 🧵

All the Russian VDV & men in other "Regime Security Force/Elite" Russian units after 7 months have clocked over 180 days
1/
...in combat.

The slow rolling Russian collapse in Kherson and rapid one in Kharkiv reflects this physical fact.

Ukraine's immediate mass mobilization meant it could rotate units out of combat while Russia's manpower shortage meant it didn't.

Yes, Ukraine's 250K worth of
2/
... at start troops are near to that 180 day "clocking out."

The other 750K they have pulled in since February 2022 haven't.

Ukraine has had time to harden its recruits with exercise & military discipline necessary to survive the high stress environment of combat.

3/
Read 22 tweets
Sep 23
This is a "The World has changed" video.

The Iranian Shahed-136 drone in the Russian's hands is acting as a small propeller cruise missile several hundred kilometers from the nearest Russian position.

No USAF, USMC or US Army airbase or heliport is safe from such munitions
1/14
Long range precision strike, to a depth of 1,800 km, is a game that anyone can play in now.

The US Military services have lost air superiority below 3,000 feet, and it is unclear if they will get it back for decades.

The mal-investment in the utterly irrelevant to this
2/14
...threat F-35 is a large part of the problem.

The F-35 is simply cost INEFFECTIVE for this threat, but the political-military factions invested in it will force it to be used for dealing with lawn mower engine powered drones with air-to-air missiles costing up to 50 times
3/14
Read 14 tweets
Sep 21
Keir Giles has a really on-point reaction column to Putin's mobilization speech.

He brings the 🔥🔥🔥🔥

1/5

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Text clipped from the link:
"The good news here is that Putin’s announcement of emergency measures shows he recognises Russia is losing in its war of imperial expansion. The less good news is that if he believes even a tiny fraction of the lies and fantasies he reeled off...
2/5
...during the speech, his grip on reality is even shakier than we previously suspected.

And later in the column:

"In fact, few of Putin’s contradictory storylines stand up to even a moment’s critical thought: we are winning in Ukraine – but the forces of the west aligned...
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Sep 21
Check this link if you want to know the full Iranian cultural context of the chant "Khamenei is a pimp" in the video below.

1/4
mei.edu/publications/t…
This is the opening paragraph from the link:

"Sex tourism and sex trafficking in Iran are increasing. One contributing cause is the practice of sigheh. Sigheh (also known by its Arabic name “nikah mut‘ah”) allows men to marry a woman for a pre-determined period of time,
2/4
...have intimate relations with her, and then leave her without consequences. While sigheh is often justified using moral terms, in practice it is a legal loophole for prostitution. The problems associated with sigheh are rampant, but there is almost no research or data...
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21
@RALee85 has a very useful thread here explaining the mobilization Putin has put into effect for Russia.

Read it all👇

My takeaways🧵
My immediate takeaways:

- Current conscripts can be ordered to the front & 'refuseniks' jailed.
- Stop loss on all Russian conscript & contract troops. They are all in for the duration of the war.
- Priority call up/conscription of former Russian soldiers with needed skills.
2/
- Administratively, new conscripts & contract troops will be used as replacements for existing units.

The previous four bullet points together represent potentially effective steps to delay a Russian lanchester square manpower collapse for up to three months.
3/
Read 11 tweets
Sep 20
There are a number of Ukrainian reports in the last few hours that the Russian colonial militia has abandoned Lyman.

Russian Collapse Sequence 🧵


1/
And that Ukrainian forces are in full control of Bilohorivka, causing the Russians to commit a blocking force to the defense of Lysychansk.

2/
This is all of a piece.

The Russian collapse sequence in Northern Donbass proceeds apace.

The Russian's polyglot ground forces simply cannot handle Ukrainian fire support parity.

3/
Read 16 tweets

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