Another odd Acid Capitalist show that requires some explanation and many apologies
This week's show will not be an easy listen on the apple podcast platform, apologies but for good reason podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the…
I'm a flow-state guy. I take guests as I find them. This week's has a huge following on twitter, almost 400k. I was intrigued. But I'm wary of who shares my platform. You have to merit the spotlight of the Acid Capitalists. And a bad guest is like glitter, difficult to shake off.
It rapidly became apparent that our guest was out of his depth, not at our level of rigour. An amateur sleuth who's convinced the gullible the he's an investment oracle. People flock to his twitter account. Regulators don't care. Imagine someone passing themselves of as a doctor?
What to do? The problem was that he's got a rapidly delivered sales pitch memorised from watching too many suits on cnbc and reading Rich Dad Poor Dad; I'm not making this up! But knowledge? Of course, there's no audited investment score card to independently appraise his talents
Much consternation was created by his claim to have out performed stocks in 2010 by hundreds of percent When pressed on his exact return for this year, he couldn't remember. He promised to get back to us...we're still waiting.
We subjected a recent stock pick to an appraisal using his thorough selection criteria.He controls risk through superior stock selection. Good businesses are seldom subject to poor delivery, they have franchise moats etc, yes he's an avid W Buffet reader. So what's he been buying
A health care clothing business. A covid era pump and dump (sorry, that's just my cynical imagination) ipo that, common to its lineage, just disappointed the Street.
He's been buying around recent, higher, levels. It's not obvious why? Healthcare apparel, that couldn't be plastic surgical gloves et al, the type so popular during a global pandemic?
But the show must go on. What to do? I couldn't allow him to just spout his nonsense on my show, like most suits he just goes on and on with no need for oxygen. And so I decided to double speed him, to get it over with quicker, and let me have a longer chat with @writes_sweeney
Mean? But elegant choices weren't immediately obvious, and I thought it lent itself to the insanity of our world. Joe Public, left way behind by the stellar rise in (fictional) wealth. The desire for playing catch up is widespread and understandable. Its also disasterous...
BTC compounding at 50%, yes please. Fake investors promising fabulous risk free returns, where do I sign. So, think of this week's show as a public service. Not all that shimmers is trouble except, je sais pas. Today, the best way to double your money is to fold it; I dare you!
To walk away, wait till all that fictional wealth has been unwound. Work to maximise your income from ordinary endeavours. Watch from a safe distance as the capital markets are set a blaze by their participants conceit of each other and the blindness of those they call leaders.
But all that doublespeak talking, and the usual manic happiness of The Alchemist, did get me reminiscing for this particular desperately outmoded brand of humour, I do hope that all these schemes chronicled in our show will one day seem as alien as this
But credit to @BrianFeroldi for allowing us to publish warts and all. That itself reveals the strength of the man. If you watch or listen to the show, I hope you recognise that I never set out to cause trouble. More Aesops fables and scorpions and frogs...buy his book
Whereas the vol trader that we called out on so many points that he went crying to his lawyers, he appeared almost silmutaneously on a big finance platform unchallenged. His lines were the same as those he deemed the SEC would challenge. He'll probably get his own show on cnbc 🤣
This is what I think of as I watch risk capital set on fire around the world.
One day, desperate "investors" will call upon the Fed to SoS
And no doubt they will, and this turd cycle will continue sans arrette
The blind leading the blind...
Last words to Brian
OK, I couldn't resist, scorpions et al,
Because we're insane and lazy...
But we can do much better. Tell me? Who do you want on the show. I want real hedge fund pros. I rarely agree with @rampagingruss but I greatly admire his experience and intellect. The legends and the future legends. If you're a prime broker and you know some candidates, call me.
I want varicose veins, sorry, yanis varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, although I tell you now, he stays away from inquisitive, smart people like me; I wonder why? I want interesting, smart, eclectic people like @willmacaskill to chew the fat with. Who would you like?
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What is more Jean Hugues Hendrix, than french new wave stars and Jane Birkin rockin a see through dress?! Like I said on @CNBCAsia, markets wear my wealth like a see through dress, IDK if it’s fear or desire...
Danger’s the drug that might stage a rally higher but the credit crunch will likely take us much lower…eventually
Let's look at specifics because everything is tender and delicately poised one way or another
Oh Lordy. Financial journalism is so far removed from reality. Perhaps it serves to soothe the tension from not understanding. Today’s FT depicts a scene of Japan’s Ministry of Finance conducting psych ops against traders in anticipation of a great FX intervention
Apparently their pub quiz the other day, strengthened the JPY 2 big points against the $ as traders cowered under the threat. That Japan needs to buy time until US rate hikes end. Cause FX moves are always a function of the Fed policy, right?
Imagine they actually wrote about Tokyo, and its enormous money-centre banks, being the conduits for gathering global $ collateral to facilitate term and economically sensitive credit expansion into China.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/sho…
Thanks @Emily for having me on the show; luckily i live on an island far, far away, hidden from the rage of the populists. UK may scrap the cap on bankers bonuses. Typically like Gresham’s Law, bad money, or bad public policy drives out good money/policy
What’s bad policy? Capping economic agents earnings. Applying normative, value judgements, « this is the right thing to do », « my moral compass is better than yours » etc We’re not interested in the lavish rewards for sports stars etc but become enraged at the bankers
If only we understood that private bankers create money, not governments. And that the misery of the last 15 years is partly attributable to miserable and fearful bankers. I’m not saying hug them. I’m saying do we want our best talents directing the flow of money…
A twist this week. Apologies for the delay and the shortened interview. We had drama, too much drama. Many ask to feature as guests on the show, few are chosen.
This week we welcomed a notable, and well followed, fin-tweeter / trader with 10s of thousands of followers. More importantly, he’s a supposed name in volatility, or so we thought…
Oh boy, I love a Venice Beach morning on the sundeck.
The mellow morning rumination after the riot of thoughts from the night before
Forgive me the whimsy but in coats of many colours
I'm dropping the reptile man under the crystal sun
To stay below my consciousness, to surrender to what might happen
But I warn you, one thousand eventualities may spring up in my mind
This week's show is unmissable. @D_Blanchflower the original bad boy of central banking
An Acid Capitalist
Perhaps the only dissenter in modern central bank history.
The man who didn't go to Oxford,
Who sent a storm to the BofE governor's Desert Island
We need smart central bankers today because growth is so precarious. We need people who are uncertain rather than adamant of their infallibility. Who are willing to confess to not knowing what might happen. But respect plausible, multiple outcomes and have a play book for each
All wise rate birds know it's not about inflation but collapsing consumer confidence