Importantly, this finding is shared across the other two studies: the cross-reactive antibodies elicited by Omicron boosting generally don’t neutralize Omicron as well as they neutralize the “old” viral strain:
But unique aspect of Kaku et al study is to compare Omicron neutralization by antibodies from B cells at 1 versus 6 month after breakthrough infection (Cao et al only looked 1 month).
After 6 months, antibodies have affinity matured to be much more potent against Omicron!
Improved neutralization of Omicron due to improved affinity for its RBD, which comes at slight cost to affinity for old RBD.
Shows affinity maturation favors mutations that “specialize” on Omicron vs old strain. But this is good, because we now care about Omicron, not old strain
(Note that there is lots of good prior work, such as this study by @NussenzweigL et al (cell.com/immunity/fullt…), on long duration of affinity maturation to #SARSCoV2; what’s new in current study is showing it shifts neutralization towards Omicron after breakthrough.)
A few antibody classes dominate >50% of the Omicron breakthrough antibody response. Our contribution was deep mutational scanning on representative antibodies to map escape mutations. These include sites 346, 460, 486, 490, which are evolving in recent variants.
Our deep mutational scanning largely consistent w much larger study by Cao et al: antibodies that neutralize Omicron focus on a few sites that are now rapidly evolving:
Rather, it may be that a narrow neutralization focus that is susceptible to a handful of escape mutations is an unfortunate general feature of the antibody response to viruses with a high capacity for antigenic evolution:
Big picture: I think these studies suggest heterologous boosting, as from breakthrough or updated vaccine *is* helpful: affinity maturation towards Omicron & at least some elicitation of new B cells.
Seems to me boosting w updated strain is clearly preferable to not updating.
It’s possible that boosting with Omicron is less preferable than some magical world where we could turn back the immunological clock and give everyone primary immunity to the current circulating variant.
But that magical world doesn’t exist. At this point, most people have immune imprinting to #SARSCoV2 from vaccination, infection, or both. And virus will keep evolving, so long term everyone who is not a young child will be imprinted with an “old” strain for most of their lives.
Their imprinted immunity will get boosted at least every few years by a new strain through vaccination with updated booster (my preference, as I’d rather have sore arm than COVID-19), infection with the latest variant, or both.
This boosting will be on background of immunity from prior vaccinations/infections: but above studies show that boosting w new strains do offer beneficial affinity maturation and some new B cells.
Maybe (?) these benefits will compound over more Omicron exposures.
@victora_lab fate mapping study found that *two* Omicron exposures were necessary to start producing substantial levels of antibodies from “new” B cells.
So while it’s possible updated boosters aren’t as good as magical world in which primary immunity is always to circulating variant, they seem better than real-world alternative of waiting for an infection to start updating immunity to new strain.
(But I do think it seems sensible to update the *primary* vaccination series being given to unvaccinated individuals, at this point mostly young children, to the new vaccine. This will start primary immunity as close as possible to where we’d like to be.)
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Happy to be part of a new project by @BulletinAtomic to promote discussion of research on potential pandemic pathogens, and hopefully guide careful thinking to ensure research in this area ethically balances risks & benefits.
It is notable that this project is coordinated by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, which was founded by scientists after development of powerful but potentially risky nuclear technologies.
Another change: by default, the calculator now shows escape relative to BA.2, since virtually all viruses circulating now are derived from BA.2.
As has been extensively noted, key sites of escape relative to BA.2 now include 346, 444, 446, 486, and 490.
By default it shows escape averaged across all antibodies. But if you want to look (for example) at escape from just antibodies elicited by BA.2 breakthrough (or some other exposure) you can do that as indicated below.
Escape sites differ a bit depending on exposure history.
In new work, we formulate a biophysical model of viral escape from polyclonal antibodies, & develop software to apply model to deep mutational scanning data to understand antigenic effects of combinations of mutations: biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
I explain in 🧵 below.
We can now measure effects of viral mutations in high throughput. But viruses get multiple mutations as they evolve & it’s impossible to experimentally study all combinations of mutations.
So how can we determine how multi-mutant viruses will be neutralized by polyclonal serum?
Our approach is based on concept of antibody “epitopes.”
Let’s first review how epitopes were originally defined in “old days” (by Webster, Laver, Gerhard, @JonYewdell, etc) before it was feasible to sequence viral mutants or determine structures of their proteins.
This is a very interesting study. @yunlong_cao's 🧵 and paper itself explain key findings well, but I want to to highlight what I find most interesting aspects.
Result 1: as primary series, monovalent or bivalent vaccines containing BA.1 or BA.5 give better titers against homologous BA.1 or BA.5, respectively.
In other words, as expected, neutralizing titers are better if vaccine strain matches virus.
Result 2 (re-attaching same figure): Monovalent vaccines for BA.1 or BA.5 give titers against homologous virus at least as good as mRNA1273 gives against Wuhan-Hu-1.
In other words, there is no evidence here for Omicron spike being less immunogenic than Wuhan-Hu-1 spike.
I wanted to summarize current knowledge about origins of the #SARSCoV2 Omicron variant.
(This 🧵 doesn’t have anything new for people following topic closely, but I still get many questions about this, so am recapping current knowledge.)
TLDR: there are now good reasons to favor explanation that Omicron largely evolved in chronic human infection(s), possibly w some compensatory evolution after re-entry into general human population.
No other proposed explanation look particularly convincing anymore.
To start, let’s review what was unusual about Omicron.
First, Omicron is on a very long branch from the rest of #SARSCoV2 phylogeny, indicating it has a lot of new mutations relative to anything before it (image below from nextstrain.org/nextclade/sars…).