Tom Shugart Profile picture
Sep 23, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Looks like two of China's PLA-associated roll-on/roll-off ferries, BO HAI CUI ZHU and BO HAI JING ZHU, have left their normal routes crossing the Yellow Sea and are now headed toward Nanjing. Both ferries recently took part in what was likely a PLA landing/transport Exercise.
Both ferries are are owned by the Bo Hai Ferry Group, which is organized as the Eighth Transport Group of the PRC Maritime Militia and whose ferries have on several occasions taken part in PLA amphibious assault and transport exercises. globaltimes.cn/page/202110/12…
Both ferries were built in 2012, and are 34K gross ton vessels. They can each carry more than 2,000 passengers and more than 300 vehicles.

It looks like each one stopped off for about 3 hrs in Lianyungang, at what looks like a a dedicated roll-on/roll-off platform.
To be clear, two ferries does not look like at all like a Taiwan invasion in the making.
But whatever they're doing is probably not a routine commercial operation; I'd guess some sort of transport or training for the PLA.
Good morning all, quick update: one ferry, Bo Hai Cut Zhu, is now moored at what looks like a vehicle loading lot on the Yangtze river between Nanjing and Zhenjiang, arriving around 1000 UTC.
The facility looks to be a commercial vehicle loading facility, for loading new cars onto Ro-Ro vehicle carriers. It does not appear to be a ferry landing. (This image is not from today.)
Meanwhile, Bo Hai Jing Zhu is at anchor in the Yangtze nearby.
I doubt these ferries are being used to load new cars as a commercial operation—that's just not what they're built for or efficient use of their capabilities (though not impossible). My guess is the vehicle lot is being used to load something for the PLA, for exercise/transport.

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More from @tshugart3

Jan 7
I’m excited to share that @ChinaMaritime has just released a short paper I co-wrote with Mike Dahm titled “Flooding the Zone: The Use of Civilian Landing Craft (LCTs) in PLA Amphibious Operations”.

digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/18/
This paper follows the surprising observation last year that the PLA appears to be using civilian “LCTs” - a civilian derivative of WWII landing craft - to go straight to the beach in practice landing exercises.
Here are our key takeaways in the report: Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 28, 2025
Ok, continuing on this thread on the 2025 CMPR...
...first up, China's nuclear warhead totals. This year's report says that warhead production has slowed, with a total in the low 600s, but that the PLA is still on track to have 1000+ warheads by 2030. Image
Regarding China's early warning capability, we get a lot more specificity than I've seen before: that China now has IR warning satellites that can detect and warn of an incoming ICBM within minutes. Image
Read 25 tweets
Dec 28, 2025
Last week saw the release of the 2025 China Military Power Report (CMPR). For those not familiar, this is DoD’s Congressionally-mandated unclassified update on the Chinese military. It’s an annual feast of open-source data.

So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report: Image
I'll focus on those things that I thought were most noteworthy: significant changes from previous reports, reveals of information not previously seen in the open-source world, etc.

Where there is a point of comparison I'll have the new report on the left, older on the right. Image
Image
The new report is fairly different: for one thing, it clocks in at 100 pages to the previous report's 182.

From the top, the preface differs: the 2024 report's reads mostly like an intel product, where there's more proclamation of administration policy in the new one. Image
Image
Read 26 tweets
Oct 27, 2025
PRC SEALIFT UPDATE: based on a review of satellite imagery & AIS data from recent landing exercises, it appears China is practicing using dual-use civil-military landing craft for direct beach assault.

Of note, while info is sparse, these ships appear to exist in large numbers. Image
To the details: for a few years now, we've seen what've been known as "deck cargo ships" being used in PLA military transport exercises. Image
Image
For details, see the work of analysts like Conor Kennedy... digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/4/
Read 24 tweets
Oct 8, 2025
This has been making the rounds—another article calling for U.S. conventional submarines—so I suppose it's time to weigh in. In this case, the article is written by someone personally knowledgeable of submarine operations—a U.S. submariner.

However...
usni.org/magazines/proc…
...the article seems to be missing consideration of two key factors that IMO continue to make the idea of U.S. (manned) diesel-electric submarines a bad idea: advances in autonomy, and the PLA Rocket Force.
First, autonomy: he explicitly calls for these diesel boats as cruise missile platforms (SSGs), making a point to separate them from the multi-mission capabilities of U.S. SSNs.
No need for ISR, ASW, or torpedo capability. Ok, great—this sounds like a perfect job for an XXLUUV. Image
Read 16 tweets
Oct 6, 2025
It's taken me a bit of time to get around to addressing this article by Jennifer Kavanagh about US-PRC-Taiwan relations in the NYT, but here we go.
She's pretty clear about how we got where we are: close to a US-PRC war, that the problem started with Taiwan. Image
She says the situation is not pre-ordained, and that the best way to avoid a war is to restrain US military posture in the region and tell Taiwan they may be on their own.
(I'd say she's half-right: it didn't have to be this way; but I'd place the blame elsewhere.)Image
Read 18 tweets

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