Looks like two of China's PLA-associated roll-on/roll-off ferries, BO HAI CUI ZHU and BO HAI JING ZHU, have left their normal routes crossing the Yellow Sea and are now headed toward Nanjing. Both ferries recently took part in what was likely a PLA landing/transport Exercise.
Both ferries are are owned by the Bo Hai Ferry Group, which is organized as the Eighth Transport Group of the PRC Maritime Militia and whose ferries have on several occasions taken part in PLA amphibious assault and transport exercises. globaltimes.cn/page/202110/12…
Both ferries were built in 2012, and are 34K gross ton vessels. They can each carry more than 2,000 passengers and more than 300 vehicles.
It looks like each one stopped off for about 3 hrs in Lianyungang, at what looks like a a dedicated roll-on/roll-off platform.
To be clear, two ferries does not look like at all like a Taiwan invasion in the making.
But whatever they're doing is probably not a routine commercial operation; I'd guess some sort of transport or training for the PLA.
Good morning all, quick update: one ferry, Bo Hai Cut Zhu, is now moored at what looks like a vehicle loading lot on the Yangtze river between Nanjing and Zhenjiang, arriving around 1000 UTC.
The facility looks to be a commercial vehicle loading facility, for loading new cars onto Ro-Ro vehicle carriers. It does not appear to be a ferry landing. (This image is not from today.)
Meanwhile, Bo Hai Jing Zhu is at anchor in the Yangtze nearby.
I doubt these ferries are being used to load new cars as a commercial operation—that's just not what they're built for or efficient use of their capabilities (though not impossible). My guess is the vehicle lot is being used to load something for the PLA, for exercise/transport.
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...at most times and most places, without significant fear of attack. The U.S. does not currently appear to have Sea Control of the SoH, and if anything Iran appears to be executing Sea Denial based on the lack of traffic.
Regardless of the SoH, due to the internationalization of shipping even if the U.S. did control the SoH, that does not mean a blockade of China. Ships can change flags, cargoes can be rerouted or even sold en-route.
From @USCC_GOV testimony today: U.S. naval intelligence assesses the PLA Navy is shifting from mostly-diesel-electric to ALL-NUCLEAR submarine construction.
Other highlights: while the U.S. submarine industrial base struggles to meet it production goals, the PRC's submarine production capacity has increased 2-3X since 2010.
I’m excited to share that @ChinaMaritime has just released a short paper I co-wrote with Mike Dahm titled “Flooding the Zone: The Use of Civilian Landing Craft (LCTs) in PLA Amphibious Operations”.
This paper follows the surprising observation last year that the PLA appears to be using civilian “LCTs” - a civilian derivative of WWII landing craft - to go straight to the beach in practice landing exercises.
...first up, China's nuclear warhead totals. This year's report says that warhead production has slowed, with a total in the low 600s, but that the PLA is still on track to have 1000+ warheads by 2030.
Regarding China's early warning capability, we get a lot more specificity than I've seen before: that China now has IR warning satellites that can detect and warn of an incoming ICBM within minutes.
Last week saw the release of the 2025 China Military Power Report (CMPR). For those not familiar, this is DoD’s Congressionally-mandated unclassified update on the Chinese military. It’s an annual feast of open-source data.
So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report:
I'll focus on those things that I thought were most noteworthy: significant changes from previous reports, reveals of information not previously seen in the open-source world, etc.
Where there is a point of comparison I'll have the new report on the left, older on the right.
The new report is fairly different: for one thing, it clocks in at 100 pages to the previous report's 182.
From the top, the preface differs: the 2024 report's reads mostly like an intel product, where there's more proclamation of administration policy in the new one.
PRC SEALIFT UPDATE: based on a review of satellite imagery & AIS data from recent landing exercises, it appears China is practicing using dual-use civil-military landing craft for direct beach assault.
Of note, while info is sparse, these ships appear to exist in large numbers.
To the details: for a few years now, we've seen what've been known as "deck cargo ships" being used in PLA military transport exercises.