Looks like two of China's PLA-associated roll-on/roll-off ferries, BO HAI CUI ZHU and BO HAI JING ZHU, have left their normal routes crossing the Yellow Sea and are now headed toward Nanjing. Both ferries recently took part in what was likely a PLA landing/transport Exercise.
Both ferries are are owned by the Bo Hai Ferry Group, which is organized as the Eighth Transport Group of the PRC Maritime Militia and whose ferries have on several occasions taken part in PLA amphibious assault and transport exercises. globaltimes.cn/page/202110/12…
Both ferries were built in 2012, and are 34K gross ton vessels. They can each carry more than 2,000 passengers and more than 300 vehicles.

It looks like each one stopped off for about 3 hrs in Lianyungang, at what looks like a a dedicated roll-on/roll-off platform.
To be clear, two ferries does not look like at all like a Taiwan invasion in the making.
But whatever they're doing is probably not a routine commercial operation; I'd guess some sort of transport or training for the PLA.
Good morning all, quick update: one ferry, Bo Hai Cut Zhu, is now moored at what looks like a vehicle loading lot on the Yangtze river between Nanjing and Zhenjiang, arriving around 1000 UTC.
The facility looks to be a commercial vehicle loading facility, for loading new cars onto Ro-Ro vehicle carriers. It does not appear to be a ferry landing. (This image is not from today.)
Meanwhile, Bo Hai Jing Zhu is at anchor in the Yangtze nearby.
I doubt these ferries are being used to load new cars as a commercial operation—that's just not what they're built for or efficient use of their capabilities (though not impossible). My guess is the vehicle lot is being used to load something for the PLA, for exercise/transport.

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More from @tshugart3

Sep 21
While I might quibble here & there, in general I agree with this article's conclusions that we should:
- make maritime strike a priority for the bomber force
- ramp-up anti-ship missile production (e.g., LRASM)
- bring back as many B-1Bs as we can for now warontherocks.com/2022/09/defeat…
In fact, I made a similar such recommendation in testimony to @USCC_GOV in February 2021, recognizing the vulnerability of fixed and non-stealthy platforms that start a conflict within range of China's long-range precision strike weapons. ImageImage
That being said, I can't help but notice that—in an article discussing the need to be able to engage and sink the Chinese navy using survivable, long-range platforms—there seems to be something missing from the analysis that I can't quite put my finger on...🤔 Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 20
Hmmm...headline does not appear to actually be what he said. 🤔
He said: “They have a very large navy, and if they want to bully and put ships around Taiwan, they very much can do that"...
wsj.com/articles/china…
...and: "... you know, a blockade is less kinetic,”...“then that allows the international community to weigh in and to work together on how we’re going to solve that challenge.” And that the intl community could "step in".
Interesting tidbit: "Adm. Thomas said China is turning out navy ships at an impressive rate, while the U.S. doesn’t have as many shipyards producing navy ships as it needs..."Capacity has a quality all of its own,” he said."
Read 4 tweets
Sep 19
I was pleased to take part in this @ChinaPowerCSIS survey on China's approach to Taiwan, now and in the future. chinapower.csis.org/survey-experts…
For those questions that teased out a difference between former USG officials and other experts, I found it interesting that the former USG folks were more likely to think:
1. That the PRC can wait indefinitely for unification...
...but also:
2. That Xi's main priority is to make progress on unification, and is willing to use large-scale force to do so.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 8
A few thoughts on an article I alluded to (ok, fine…subtweeted) elsewhere today - an assessment by Dr. Benjamin Jensen in @WarOnTheRocks on the risks China would run in attempting a Taiwan invasion, and the resources it would take to to do. warontherocks.com/2022/09/not-so…
Dr. Jensen's focus in the article is to use WWII's Operation Causeway, the planned but never-executed U.S. invasion of Japanese-held Formosa (now Taiwan), as a "historical baseline" against which to perform his assessment.
This comparison strikes a nerve for a number of reasons. First, I've seen the Operation Causeway comparison used before to downplay the risk of invasion - not just in the near term, but that China "probably will never have the capacity" to do so. thehill.com/opinion/intern…
Read 21 tweets
Sep 8
Got some fresh @googleearth imagery of Jiangnan shipyard in Shanghai, and it looks to me like China has commenced construction of at least one additional Type 055 (Renhai-Class) cruiser/destroyer.
First, as circled at the top above, you can see what looks like a prefabricated module for the characteristic Renhai superstructure, dominated by spots for its 4 phased array radars.
Here it is compared with an already-launched Type 055, at similar scale. Looks like a pretty good match to me.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 1
Glad to see this rejoinder to Mike Pietrucha's @WarOnTheRocks piece of a few months ago (Title: AMATEUR HOUR PART I), by @CReevesFox, @TPLevine85 & @CreggeKyle.

warontherocks.com/2022/09/hedgin…
Some excellent perspective here on why it's a bad idea to rest easy when you think your adversary doesn't have enough sea lift - particularly when they're the largest shipbuilder in the history of humanity.
One of the places where Pietrucha was furthest off the mark IMO was in dismissing China's civilian shipping as near-useless in an assault, seemingly missing the fairly well-known fact that much of that shipping is now required to be built to specific national defense standards.
Read 5 tweets

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