Thread by @nohegaylians

In 1997, the polish émigré filled with ethnic resentment Zbigniew Brzezinski, published "The Grand Chessboard" a book concerned with geostrategy in Central Asia. It explains why the west has been financing this pathetic little project called Ukraine uninterrupted since 1994.

The theory follows Mackinder's 1904 Geographical Pivot of History, which regards the landmass of Eurasia as the center of global power. It formulates a Eurasian geostrategy in which no Eurasian challenger should emerge that can dominate it and challenge US global pre-eminence.

The vital question is who secures control for the Heartland. This may seem pointless since in 1904 Russia had ruled the area from the Volga to Eastern Siberia for centuries. However European powers had combined a century before in the Great Game to prevent Russian expansion.

The Heartland became a springboard for global domination in the twentieth century. During WWI the Germans sought to gain control over Ukraine to exploit the Volgograd Gap and force Russia into capitulation.

As Eurasia began to be covered by a network of railroads, a powerful continental nation could extend its political control over the Eastern European gateway to the Eurasian landmass. In Mackinder's words, "Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland”.

The Germans knew what they were doing. The European plain which extends into Belarus and Russia, is mostly indefensible. From the eastern edge of Ukraine, it takes roughly 700km to the western most coast of the Caspian Sea.

If some foreign power managed to gain enough control of this territorial gap, it would essentially block off Russia’s access to both the Caucasus, the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea and access to the flat Russian countryside. It would be game over.

However, Germany lost the war & whatever European dreams it had of extending its influence over the Eurasian landmass it was crushed by external impositions. It will come as no surprise that in the second great war, the European theater was decided once again in the Volgograd Gap

They made it as far as Stalingrad, in the deadliest battle to take place during the second world war and one of the bloodiest battles in the history of warfare, with an estimated 2 million total casualties. It is regarded as the turning point in the European Theatre of war.

Clearly, the security of the Volgograd Gap was non-negotiable for Russia, and is one of the most critical considerations in its geo-political outlook. The loss of control of this region means the very existence of a Russian Federation would come under question.

Look, maybe you support Russia or Ukraine I don’t care, but consider this: in 2013 this was the Ukrainian territory. A year later Russia managed to claim Crimea and a shiny new port in the Black Sea, a gift by the mismanaged and incompetent Obama administration.

The regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Mariupol and Kherson become hot contented regions. Some attempted a break way. 8 years later Russia decided to invade the Ukraine with the goal of destroying the wests ability to launch a successful bid for control of these regions.

Russia sees Ukraine as an irreplaceable buffer against the West which explains their support for pro- separatist forces in East Ukraine in particular the regions closer to the Volgograd gap. This topographical map displays the regions which could become part of Russia next month.

The current situation in Ukraine as of yesterday. If Putin is successful in his bid to retain these regions, get them through the same process it applied in Crimea, the area will secure Russia security and access to important and strategic access points for many years to come.

As far as I see it, it looks like mission accomplished – eliminating the threat of this strategic narrow plain which decided the fate of the past two world wars. However, it all depends on how NATO is willing to escalate this: the bases below illustrate just how ready they are.

Are they ready to go nuclear over it? I don't know. Maybe the incompetent European bureaucracy is stupid and arrogant enough. One this is certain: Russia will not capitulate the region without the entire Russian state collapsing. Looks like we are in for a fun winter.

Excerpts from The Grand Chessboard:

NATO is not sending their best.
Guerrilla tactics are rarely used for anything other than defence. The region, as mention in thread, is a flat plain. It's purpose is to win popular support and political influence, to the enemy's cost.
Good luck with that.

https://twitter.com/TheCactus71/status/1573623450086027264?t=y-Ne7WUB7terDFs4BgIIkQ&s=19