I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of the Russia war in Ukraine.
A thread.
A thread.
It’s obviously been a bit of a bad month for Russia on the battlefield.
The Kharkiv front collapsed, and the Russians still haven’t reestablished a viable front time.
(They tried around the River Oskil, but the Ukrainians have crossed it in several places, and now bits of Luhansk have been liberated)
(They tried around the River Oskil, but the Ukrainians have crossed it in several places, and now bits of Luhansk have been liberated)
This defeat—and make no mistake, it was a military defeat—has had wide ranging echoes.
Basically, everyone has realised that Russia is going to lose the war, and has started adjusting accordingly.
Basically, everyone has realised that Russia is going to lose the war, and has started adjusting accordingly.
Firstly, Putin has taken a lot of heat at home.
All of the ultra-nationalist headbangers on Putin’s right flank have started to look around for people to blame. And they’ve all been calling for escalation.
All of the ultra-nationalist headbangers on Putin’s right flank have started to look around for people to blame. And they’ve all been calling for escalation.
This is why we have the ‘partial’ mobilisation - it doesn’t change the price of fish in military terms. But it does soothe a key domestic constituency that Putin is worried about.
But most importantly, internationally the sands have started to shift.
India’s Modi ticking Putin off - it’s 2022 and we don’t go to war to solve problems - was the gist
China’s Xi clearly expressing enough displeasure in private for Putin to acknowledge in public that the Chinese had worries and concerns.
And perhaps most stark, Turkey’s Erdogan.
Now he’s played a blinker during the war, balancing between the two sides to their own great advantage.
But now Erdogan says that Crimea should go back to its rightful owners, the Ukrainians.
Now he’s played a blinker during the war, balancing between the two sides to their own great advantage.
But now Erdogan says that Crimea should go back to its rightful owners, the Ukrainians.
It’s over for Putin.
His army is slowly collapsing in Ukraine.
The vultures are circulating at home.
And he is internationally isolated.
The vultures are circulating at home.
And he is internationally isolated.
It’s just a question of whether this wraps up this year or next.
Finally - what I’ve also noticed is that there are a lot less Russian bots attacking me on Twitter.
One assumes they’ve all been drafted?
ENDS
One assumes they’ve all been drafted?
ENDS
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