Earlier this week a journalist asked me how this might end now, with the partial mobilization and referendums. I said that I don't see a realistic endgame scenario. Then I spent several days thinking about it. I still don't see it, at least not anytime soon. So, some thoughts 1/
1. Ukraine has the will, the resources and the capacity to fight. Even if Russia mobilizes every bear in Siberia and reindeer in Yakutia, Ukraine will keep fighting. Even if Russia uses nuclear weapons, Ukraine will keep fighting. I think this should clear to everyone by now 2/
2. Russia has the will and the resources to fight, there are still unmobilized bears in Siberia, reindeer in Yakutia and people willing to go fight in the provinces. Human life is cheap in Russia, especially outside Moscow 3/
3. Even after mobilizing every single reservist Russia won't be able to win and Ukraine refuses to lose. Frozen conflict is impossible with Russia's existing troop levels and unsustainable by relying on costly, poorly trained and unmotivated reservists who would rather be home 4/
4. Even if there is a coup in Moscow, it will likely be done by those who think they know how to kill Ukrainians more effectively, not those who want peace. Even if they will agree to peace, there is no way they will agree give up Crimea and Ukraine won't accept such peace 5/
5. So where does this leave us? Option 1: Russia keeps sending people to be killed and Ukraine keeps killing them until Russia doesn't have anyone left to send. Option 2: There is a mutiny in the Russian army when enough get too tired of being killed 6/
6. Option 3: The large number reservists make the Russian army so ineffective that it collapses in the field. Option 4: There is a coup in Moscow that leads to chaos and loss of control which Ukraine uses to fully destroy the Russian army or the Russians collapse on their own 7/
I think options 3 and 4 are most likely outcomes but maybe there are other options that I haven't thought of. So, dear journalist, if you are reading this, it is my response beyond "I don't see how it ends".
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