You might have seen people using Open Interest, CVD, and Predicted Funding rates to help inform a trading position. π π»π
So what exactly is this stuff? and how can you set it up yourself for free?
But first, a real-time example from 15th September when we shorted $ATOM at $15.22
Here's the thesis we wrote out to short $ATOM.
What were these "few other indicators"?
Here's the rest of the conversation below. I'll try to break down each piece and then show you how to set these indicators up yourself.
1. "Price up but volume declining"
This is pretty self-explanatory. A rally on decreasing volume shows signs of buyer exhaustion.
2. "open interest up (lots of people going leveraged long"
Open interest (OI) is simply the number of open derivatives contracts on a particular asset. For me, it shows that there has been a lot of activity in $ATOM, which is now vulnerable.
3. "spot is selling i.e. blue line, perps are buying i.e. red line"
CVD is a trend indicator. It shows the size in which spot has been bought/sold, and the same for perpetual buying/selling. The divergence between the two is often telling as perps tend to be more speculative.
and here is our recorded entry at $15.22
and our exit for a quick +$8.5k a few hours later at $14.65
So to get this up and running first head to coinalyze.net > Futures Data > Coins
In this example, I'll choose $ETH
You'll land here, which is in itself useful as it shows aggregated OI across different exchanges. But to get that granularity we want, we'll have to scroll down a bit..
and pick a specific instrument on a specific exchange. I'm going to pick the Binance ETHUSD_PERP (the first one) since it's one of the most liquid and most frequently traded on Binance.
Now you're on this TradingView chart again, but the Indicators Tab will have a whole bunch of indicators that are only available on @coinalyzetool
If you press the little settings/gear symbol, you can customise the "Style" of each indicator to get it looking how you want
A quick note on funding.. green means longs PAY funding to be long perps (everyone doing the same thing), and negative funding means that longs are getting PAID funding to be long (demand for shorts is high).
and the liquidations tab works like this:
-> green bar = number of shorts liquidated
-> red bar = number of longs liquidated
Now I'm not going to spell out how to use each of these as a lot of this comes from experience and has to be used in conjunction with other context-specific things like Macro, event risk, what's happening on the higher time frame chart etc.
This data is most useful on LTF like the 5 min or 15 minute when planning an exit or entry. In general, look for signs of froth in OI, crowded funding positioning, spot deviating from what perps are doing, and a relatively quiet period of liquidations (calm before a storm?)
You'll notice these charts disappear and you'll have to set it all up again if you close the tab you're on. I have a premium account and I think it's worth it. But by now y'all know I ain't the kinda guy to shill a ref link so figure out if it's worth it for you.
Peace βοΈ
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Here's a statistical approach for thinking about pair trading βοΈ
This framework might help you no matter what your strategy is.
Let's take a deeper look at $ARB / $LDO, and how you might profit from this...
There are 2 ways of pair trading:
1) Narrative based 2) Statistical Arbitrage
Most trades on Pear Protocol are narrative trades i.e. you build a story why Asset A will outperform Asset B (in any market condition) and enter a long/short pos.
Here we'll focus on 2) Stat-Arb
Q1 - "Is there a statistical relationship between these two assets?"
Usually we jump to correlation for this (see below image lol).
More important than correlation, is this relationship between $ARB and $LDO constant over time? AND does it mean revert when it deviates away?
1. If you, as a retail buyer want to buy $IBTC (the iShares spot bitcoin ETF), then you'd go to your broker/online platform and swap your $ for shares in the ETF. The broker would go and buy the shares on the exchange (Nasdaq) on your behalf. Easy.
2. This is what we call the 'secondary' market. The shares already exist, and you can buy them at the market price. But what if there are no ETF shares available in the secondary market?
People don't really understand what Blackrock is, or what they do.
So let's go inside...
But first a little about their founder and CEO Larry Fink, since it will be important later
Larry joined Wall St in 1976. He was smart and made money. He pioneered the idea of debt securitization (packaging up different loans as bonds). He then ran the trading desk for those Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Yes, those bonds that led to the 2008 GFC π€―