1. To understand Iran's protests it's striking to juxtapose images of the young, modern women killed in Iran over the last week (Mahsa Amini, Ghazale Chelavi, Hanane Kia, Mahsa Mogoi) with the images of the country's ruling elite, virtually all deeply traditional, geriatric men.
2. 83-year-old @khamenei_ir has been ruling since 1989. He's the only leader many young protestors have ever known. The institutions he's empowered-and empower him-are likeminded hardliners whose main source of diversity is whether their beards and turbans are black or white
3. The powerful Guardian Council--which is headed by 95-year-old Ayatollah Jannati--has the authority to vet all electoral candidates and veto all parliamentary legislation. It's composed of 12 men, all directly or indirectly appointed by Khamenei
4. The Assembly of Experts are 88 male clerics-all Khamenei loyalists-who have the power to anoint/remove the Supreme Leader. The joke about them is their average age is deceased. It's also chaired by 95-year-old Ayatollah Jannati (who makes Khamenei look youthful)
5. The Expediency Council is an advisory body to the Supreme Leader. It's composed of 44 men, appointed every 5 years by Khamenei, and headed by 61-year-old Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani.
6. Khamenei is commander-in-chief of Iran's most powerful military body, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), led by 61-year-old Hossein Salami. The IRGC are around 190,000 men who oversee the bassij (morality police) that crush protests and enforce female dress code
7. 61-year-old President Ebrahim Raisi is Khamenei's mini-me. His career was launched after serving as a hanging judge in the first decade of the revolution, when he oversaw the execution of thousands of political prisoners
8. It's premature to assess whether Iran's ongoing protests will lead to change. But it's totally unsustainable that Iran's women-who are far more educated than its men-will continue to live under a gender apartheid regime ruled by reactionary old men
1/10 The US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities is an unprecedented event that may prove to be transformational for Iran, the Middle East, US foreign policy, global non-proliferation, and potentially even the global order. Its impact will be measured for decades to come. 🧵
2 Trump indicated this is now the time for peace. It’s unclear and unlikely the Iranians will see it the same way. This is more likely to open a new chapter of the 46-year-old US-Iran war than conclude it.
3 Many of Iran's retaliatory options are the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing. They can strike US embassies and bases, attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, mine the Strait of Hormuz, or rain missiles on Israel—but the regime may not survive the blowback.
1 We known from history the full impact of Israel’s attack on Iran will take years to unfold. It could prevent an Iranian bomb or ensure one. It could destabilize the regime or entrench it. For now, Iran’s capacity to respond is far weaker than a year ago. Initial thoughts🧵
2 Over the last year Israeli military action had already significantly diminished Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' in the Middle East. Hamas and Hezbollah are shattered, Assad’s regime is finished, and Iraqi Shia militias are subdued. Tehran is now overly reliant on Yemen's Houthis.
3 If Iran attacks Saudi oil facilities or tries to block oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz, it risks direct US retaliation, given Riyadh’s strong ties with Trump. Gulf states publicly condemned the attack, but many quietly welcome seeing Iran weakened.
1🧵 My new @ForeignAffairs essay on the ideological clash in the Middle East whose outcome could prove most consequential for the region and the world order, the battle between Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" and the Islamic Republic of Iran's "Vision 1979". foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/ne…
2 Vision 2030 appeals to popular aspirations; Vision 1979 exploits popular grievances. Vision 2030 seeks partnership with the U.S. and Israel; Vision 1979 thrives on resisting both. Vision 2030 is driven by social liberalization; Vision 1979 is anchored in social repression.
3 The two visions reflect the distinct personalities of their leaders: 85-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei and 39-year-old Crown Prince MBS, two of the region’s most powerful figures, whose mutual animosity is clear. MBS champions modernity, while Khamenei lionizes martyrdom.
1🧵Brief intro to our new essay with @nicolegrajewski on the Russia-Iran partnership and its centrality to numerous global challenges, including nuclear proliferation, cybersecurity, authoritarianism, disinformation, illicit finance, and energy security. carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/…
2 Russia and Iran are historical geopolitical rivals with competing national interests and centuries of mutual mistrust. Yet, throughout history, they've occasionally united against common adversaries, including the Ottoman Empire, the British Empire, and now the United States.
3 Perceived U.S. efforts to encircle them militarily, and subvert them internally, are one basis for their partnership. Their cooperation in deadly wars in Syria and Ukraine have further deepened their military, economic, and diplomatic ties. nytimes.com/2022/10/17/wor…
1🧵 Iran and Israel are unnatural enemies. They have complimentary national interests (energy/technology), a historic cultural affinity (Persians/Jews), and no bilateral land or resource disputes. Their conflict is best understood through the prism of ideology, not geopolitics.
2 The origins of the Iran-Israel conflict can be traced to Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution that transformed Iran from a US-allied monarchy into an Islamist theocracy. Khomeini's myriad writings reflect his contempt for Israel and his open antisemitism.
3 Ayatollah Khamenei, Khomeini's successor, shares this worldview. He's frequently said Iran “will support and assist any nation or any group anywhere who opposes and fights the Zionist regime." He was the lone world leader to praise Hamas on October 7.
🧵1) Israel's killing of Hassan Nasrallah is hugely consequential for the Middle East. Hezbollah is the crown jewel of the Islamic Republic of Iran-the one effective enterprise Iran’s revolutionaries have built since 1979-and Nasrallah has been crucial to Iran’s power expansion.
2 Arab Hezbollah has been Persian Iran’s bridge to the five failing Arab states-Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Gaza-that Tehran has been dominating. Iran provides the resources, but it was often Hezbollah, under Nasrallah’s leadership, that set up and trained these proxies.
3 Hezbollah had already experienced more leadership deaths in the last four months than over the last four decades. In a recent piece, @firasmaksad evoked Lenin: “There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen.” time.com/7023965/lebano…