1/10 The US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities is an unprecedented event that may prove to be transformational for Iran, the Middle East, US foreign policy, global non-proliferation, and potentially even the global order. Its impact will be measured for decades to come. 🧵 2 Trump indicated this is now the time for peace. It’s unclear and unlikely the Iranians will see it the same way. This is more likely to open a new chapter of the 46-year-old US-Iran war than conclude it.

1 We known from history the full impact of Israel’s attack on Iran will take years to unfold. It could prevent an Iranian bomb or ensure one. It could destabilize the regime or entrench it. For now, Iran’s capacity to respond is far weaker than a year ago. Initial thoughts🧵 2 Over the last year Israeli military action had already significantly diminished Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' in the Middle East. Hamas and Hezbollah are shattered, Assad’s regime is finished, and Iraqi Shia militias are subdued. Tehran is now overly reliant on Yemen's Houthis.

1🧵 My new @ForeignAffairs essay on the ideological clash in the Middle East whose outcome could prove most consequential for the region and the world order, the battle between Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" and the Islamic Republic of Iran's "Vision 1979". foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/ne… 2 Vision 2030 appeals to popular aspirations; Vision 1979 exploits popular grievances. Vision 2030 seeks partnership with the U.S. and Israel; Vision 1979 thrives on resisting both. Vision 2030 is driven by social liberalization; Vision 1979 is anchored in social repression.

1🧵Brief intro to our new essay with @nicolegrajewski on the Russia-Iran partnership and its centrality to numerous global challenges, including nuclear proliferation, cybersecurity, authoritarianism, disinformation, illicit finance, and energy security. carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/… 2 Russia and Iran are historical geopolitical rivals with competing national interests and centuries of mutual mistrust. Yet, throughout history, they've occasionally united against common adversaries, including the Ottoman Empire, the British Empire, and now the United States.

1🧵 Iran and Israel are unnatural enemies. They have complimentary national interests (energy/technology), a historic cultural affinity (Persians/Jews), and no bilateral land or resource disputes. Their conflict is best understood through the prism of ideology, not geopolitics. 2 The origins of the Iran-Israel conflict can be traced to Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution that transformed Iran from a US-allied monarchy into an Islamist theocracy. Khomeini's myriad writings reflect his contempt for Israel and his open antisemitism.

🧵1) Israel's killing of Hassan Nasrallah is hugely consequential for the Middle East. Hezbollah is the crown jewel of the Islamic Republic of Iran-the one effective enterprise Iran’s revolutionaries have built since 1979-and Nasrallah has been crucial to Iran’s power expansion. 2 Arab Hezbollah has been Persian Iran’s bridge to the five failing Arab states-Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Gaza-that Tehran has been dominating. Iran provides the resources, but it was often Hezbollah, under Nasrallah’s leadership, that set up and trained these proxies.

1. A short thread on the Iran-Saudi normalization agreement brokered by China, reasons why each country was motivated to sign the agreement, and what to look for to determine whether it will have a meaningful and enduring impact.
wsj.com/articles/saudi… 2. What’s in it for Beijing? Simply put China wants stability in the Middle East to ensure the free flow of energy from the region. De-escalation between two regional powers and major energy producers is critical to those objectives.

1. Protestors in the city of Piranshahr, Iranian Kurdistan. Their determination is palpable. Video via @SamRasoulpour 2. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are using combat weapons against a civilian population in Piranshahr mostly armed with rocks.

1. Today, World Children's Day, the Iranian regime's deplorable treatment of minors, at home and abroad, deserves extra scrutiny.

10-year-old Kian Pirfalak, an inspiring inventor, was the latest victim. His classmates recently attended his funeral.

Kian's story isn't isolated. 2. Iran has long had the world's highest rate of executions (per capita). It has been executing minors for decades.

During the last two months of nationwide protests it has killed more than 50 minors.

https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1592283688955518977?s=20&t=EuI_75MIAsbl3K8dcXbDyw

1. Efforts have been underway for more than a month to get Starlink terminals to Iran. One group of activists--who want to stay anonymous to protect their networks--asked me to share this video. They've already sent dozens of terminals to Iran and intend to scale up. 2. These efforts are still *very* nascent, but they have evidence the terminals are working and claim they're taking extra precautions to lessen the risks to users. Videos have also begun trickling out of Starlink terminals being used inside the country.

1. Iran's internal vulnerabilities (due to ongoing protests) and the rift in US-Saudi relations (due to a dispute over oil production) have increased the risk of another Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia/Saudi oil facilities, which the world can ill-afford.🧵 nytimes.com/2019/09/19/wor… 2. In 2019 Iran carried out, with impunity, a surprisingly precise missile and drone attack on Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company. Although Saudi Arabia managed to quickly restore oil production, there are new reasons why Iran may try it again. reuters.com/article/us-sau…

On @Morning_Joe I argued if the US were to revive the nuclear deal with Iran in this moment, it would constitute meddling in Iran's internal affairs by empowering an embattled, unpopular regime that is trying to violently crush a peaceful freedom movement. on.msnbc.com/3EBy2pf Iran currently appears unable to reach an internal consensus on the nuclear deal. But if protests persist in the coming weeks/months, they may feel the need to revive the deal out of desperation. We should be clear about our interests and loyalties.

https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1579196190318481410?s=20&t=P9ReEeRTsiLGkurDQx4-mA

1. In a recent @washingtonpost oped I wrote that Iran's potential transformation from theocracy to representative government could be a "geopolitical game changer" and the "single most important key to transforming the Middle East." Here's why 🧵 washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/… 2. Since 1979, Iran’s government has not prioritized the economic and national interests of its people, but rather an intolerant revolutionary ideology dedicated to fighting the US, destroying Israel, and remaking the Middle East in its image. foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/…

1. The single best way to understand Iran's uprising is not any book or essay, but Shervin Hajipour's 2m anthem "Baraye" which garnered over 40m views in 48h (before he was imprisoned). Its profundity requires multiple views. (Translation by @BBCArdalan) 2. The lyrics are a compilation of tweets for #MahsaAmini that are unique to the context of a young, modern society ruled by a geriatric religious dictatorship. They yearn for "a normal life", instead of the "forced paradise" of an Islamist police state.

https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1573727158085771265?s=20

"What we can see from the current protests and strikes...is a very real possibility of regime change." Excerpts from a very insightful and powerful interview with Nasrin Sotoudeh, Iran's leading women's rights attorney. By @karl_vick time.com/6218181/iran-p… "Sentence after sentence, ruling after ruling are imposed on our bodies in terms of our dress. And not only that, but rape and other transgressions. They hit you and hurt you and bruise you, and wrap you up in the veil once again that conceals the harm that’s inflicted on you."

Sickening details about Mahsa Amini's death. She was arrested for "wearing tight trousers", and women who were arrested alongside her told her father that "she was beaten inside a van that was transporting them." By @PHREUTERS #مهساامینی reuters.com/world/middle-e… "Amini minded her own business and steered clear of politics, two sources close to her family said, traits that most Iranians hope would keep them out of trouble in the Islamic Republic."

I spoke w/ @elonmusk about Starlink in Iran, he gave me permission to share this: “Starlink is now activated in Iran. It requires the use of terminals in-country, which I suspect the [Iranian] government will not support, but if anyone can get terminals into Iran, they will work" Biden administration officials are open to helping get Starlink terminals to Iran but there are two main challenges, financial and logistical. It will cost many millions of dollars to setup and sustain thousands of Starlink terminals to Iran. This challenge is surmountable.

1. To understand Iran's protests it's striking to juxtapose images of the young, modern women killed in Iran over the last week (Mahsa Amini, Ghazale Chelavi, Hanane Kia, Mahsa Mogoi) with the images of the country's ruling elite, virtually all deeply traditional, geriatric men. 2. 83-year-old @khamenei_ir has been ruling since 1989. He's the only leader many young protestors have ever known. The institutions he's empowered-and empower him-are likeminded hardliners whose main source of diversity is whether their beards and turbans are black or white

1 The Iranian regime’s brutal killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini—whose head was reportedly bludgeoned repeatedly against a wall after she was detained for showing too much hair—should permanently alter how foreign officials and reporters interact with Iranian officials #مهساامینی 2 In her recent 60 Minutes interview w/ President Raisi (here questioning the Holocaust), Leslie Stahl said “I was told how to dress, not to sit before he did, and not to interrupt him.” These terms are no longer acceptable; they legitimate discrimination

1. Last week I testified before the @SFRCdems on the need for a US strategy toward Iran that has three broad objectives: 1) Contain Iran’s nuclear program 2) Counter Iran’s regional influence and 3) Champion Iranian democratic ambitions. foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/… 2. Since 1979 Iran has sought to expel the US from the Middle East, replace Israel with Palestine, and remake the region in its image. Whether or not the nuclear deal is revived, Iran's aspirations to help topple the US-led world order will continue. foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/…

The FBI uncovered a plot by the Iranian regime to kidnap Brooklyn-based Iranian activist @AlinejadMasih. "Iranian Intelligence Services Allegedly Plotted to Kidnap a US Journalist and Human Rights Activist from New York City for Rendition to Iran" justice.gov/opa/pr/iranian… "A New York federal court unsealed an indictment today charging four Iranian nationals with conspiracies related to kidnapping, sanctions violations, bank and wire fraud, and money laundering. A co-conspirator, also of Iran, faces additional structuring charges."