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Sep 24 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
September 24, 2022 Ukraine Control of Terrain Map Update for @TheStudyofWar.

Russian sources claim Ukrainians made more gains east of the Oskil River and northwest of Lyman.

We today's iterate also made several smaller refinements.

Details below.
1. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to Petropavlivka in Kharkiv Oblast given the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack in the direction of Petropavlivka on September 24. Geolocated combat footage posted on September 23 shows...
Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian tank east of Petropavlivka, supporting this assessment.

Sources: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…;
2. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to Horobivka in Kharkiv Oblast given Russian milblogger Rybar claimed that Ukrainian forces captured Horobivka on September 24.

Source: t.me/rybar/39307
3. We recessed assessed Russian control east of Krokhmal'ne in Kharkiv Oblast given geolocated combat footage posted on September 24 shows elements of the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade destroying Russian Orlan-10 UAV complex and control vehicles in the village of Krokhmal'ne.
Sources: ;
4. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to Nove in northern Donetsk Oblast given Russian source Alexander Haikin reported that Ukrainian forces captured Nove on September 23.

Source:
5. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to cover half of Novoselivka in northern Donetsk Oblast given multiple Russian sources reported on September 24 there is ongoing fighting for Novoselivka and that that Ukrainian forces control half of Novoselivka.
Sources: t.me/boris_rozhin/6…; t.me/epoddubny/12505; t.me/milchronicles/…;
6. We recoded previous Russian claims Mykilske in Donetsk Oblast to Ukrainian counteroffensives given the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces shelled Mykilske on September 24. Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
7. We recoded previous Russian claims at the border guard station in Kharkiv Oblast at 36°16.7937935'E 50°19.9744953'N to Russian assessed advance given geolocated combat footage posted on September 24 shows elements of the Ukrainian 40th Artillery Brigade striking Russian...
positions there.

Sources:
8. We recessed Ukrainian counteroffensives in the immediate vicinity northwest of Lyman that Russian sources exaggerated on September 23.
As always, we will continue to refine our assessment as we collect and verify more information.

All of today's changes are live on the interactive map: storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…

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More from @georgewbarros

George Barros Profile picture
Sep 13
September 13, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar.

- Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces crossed the Oskil River at Borova.

- Russian forces likely recaptured Ternovi Pody in Mykolaiv Oblast.

- Russian sources claim new territory near Bakhmut in Donetsk.

Details below.
1. We recessed the Russian control line from the Oskil River closer to Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, and recoded the remaining area as Ukrainian counteroffensives based on Russian claims that Ukrainian forces crossed the Oskil river near Borova on September 13.
Source:
Read 14 tweets
George Barros Profile picture
Sep 12
September 11, 2022 Ukraine map update for @TheStudyofWar.

Today's map update is short and sweet. Ukraine won the battle of Kharkiv.

Ukraine's counteroffensive pushed Russian forces west of the Oskil River at a minimum.

Details below. 🧵
We recoded the entirety of the all of Russian assessed advances and control of terrain north and west of the Oskil River as Ukrainian counteroffensives on September 11. Ukrainian forces are likely still clearing northern Kharkiv Oblast but Russian forces have largely withdrawn.
The Russian Ministry of Defense’s daily briefing map confirmed on September 11 that Russian forces are withdrawing from settlements around Kharkiv City, in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and settlements on the western bank of the Oskil River.

Compare their September 10 vs 11 maps.
Read 10 tweets
George Barros Profile picture
Sep 11
For context, this is the terrain the Russians trying to escape from Izyum have to deal with.

It's nasty. It's wetlands and forests with few roads.

Forces in Izyum need to cross the Oskil River while getting shot at.
Forces south of Izyum City near Kamianka and Mala Komyshuvakha need to cross the Seversky Donetsk River AND the Oskil Eiver while defending the whole group's southern flank from Ukrainian forces advancing in the Dibrove - Sulyhivka - Dovhenke direction.
There are two (2) roads that lead in and out of the pocket.

Plus one railroad between the two. That's it.
Read 5 tweets
George Barros Profile picture
Sep 10
September 10, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar

🇺🇦 forces are within 25 km / 15 miles of the international border

🇷🇺 sources report 🇺🇦 forces captured Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv

🇺🇦forces captured Bilohorivka, Russian forces no longer have full control over Luhansk Oblast.

🧵
1. Ukrainian forces are likely 25 kilometers of the international border with Russia. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces captured Velyky Burluk in Kharkiv on September 10. Russian milblogger Yuriy Kotenyok stated that Ukrainian forces took advantage of the absence...
of a continuous front line while advancing on Velyky Burluk.

Sources: t.me/rybar/38586; t.me/voenkorKotenok…; t.me/rybar/38570; t.me/boris_rozhin/6…;
Read 21 tweets
George Barros Profile picture
Sep 9
September 9, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar.

Ukrainian forces captured around 1000 square km b/t September 8-9 in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces are likely clearing some disorganized Russian forces that have been caught in this rapid advance to Kupansk & the Oskil river.🧵
ISW has expanded the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv by corroborating Russian reports against remotely sensed data and geolocated imagery. Details of today's changes are below.
1. Ukrainian forces reached Kupyansk’s south. Geolocated images posted on September 9 shows Ukrainian forces on the southern outskirts of Kupansk, Kharkiv Oblast. Russian milblogger Boris Rozhin reported on September 9 that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian reconnaissance...
Read 22 tweets
George Barros Profile picture
Sep 8
September 8, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar.

Ukrainian forces captured Balakliya and continue to make gains in Kharkiv Oblast to close in on the Russian logistical node of Kupyansk.

Ukrainian forces are making impressive gains.

More on what we know so far below. 🧵
1. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives up to but not including Shevchenkove, Kharkiv Oblast, based on geolocated footage posted on September 8 that shows Ukrainian forces posing in front of the entrance sign to Shevchenkove.
No visual evidence clearly depicts Ukrainian forces having reached beyond the village. Most Russian sources state that Russian airborne elements are defending Shevchenkove. NASA FIRMS data shows heat anomalies in the western outskirts of Shevchenkove - signs of fighting.
Read 25 tweets

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