I'll leave the war updates to those that have been giving them over the last few weeks more regularly than me, but there are several updates from the last few days - a mini thread
1) russian media has clarified that putin referred to nuking west, not Ukraine
I see this as an attempt to de-escalate without without losing "face". They're saying "look we're not going to nuke Ukraine" - & we understand the Kremlin is not stupid enough to nuke other countries.
2) Protests are getting bigger in Dagestan - police officers have been attacked, and opposition leaders threatening massive action if those who have been locked up have are not been released; videos of people burning putin effigies
3) Rumours (and I don't doubt), conscripts are re-conscripted, and sent to Ukraine already - this will not end well for them. They will end up coming home in body bags soon.
Summary
- long way to go, but on the battlefront Ukraine is consolidating and making gains (east of Oksil river, fighting around Lyman/Bakhmut, villages liberated etc)
- NASAMs & other weapons arriving, supplies increasing
- mobilisation having negative impact on russians
(cont)
- Ukrainian trained soldiers arriving & rotated into battle, fresh
- Azovstal commanders & heroes returned, Ukraine morale crazy high
- russian nuclear rhetoric met with fierce warnings of 'decisive action' from NATO / EU
- UN reports finds evidence of russian war crimes
(cont)
- Ukraine goes from from strength to strength
- russia is losing on the battlefield, suffering from growing internal struggles, the West / Nato has stayed united in supporting Ukraine, despite the best efforts of that asshole, Viktor Orban
Slava Ukraini
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First things first - you may have read, NS1 was attacked, likely sabotaged by the russians. Seismologists have already confirmed there were explosions near pipeline.
This took place near Danish waters, where a russian ship was recently
2/
Of course, the russians have claimed sabotage, (which they did themselves, no doubt), and will likely blame Ukraine if they haven't already.
Mobilisation
Mobilised soldiers are already being captured and some have died already. Mobilisation is a complete mess in russia
3/ There is no training, equipment, supplies. When soldiers bring their own, its taken away from them
russia has set up/ is setting up enlistment offices on the border with Georgia to stop men leaving the country.
Ukraine has issued instructions on how russians can surrender
Last few days, an increasing number of russian planes and helicopters have reportedly been destroyed (4 two days ago, 2 yesterday, waiting for confirmed info today, & several Iranian UAVs destroyed too) - & yesterday we learned that NASAMs air defense are in Ukraine
2/
Lyman: surrounding villages are being liberated, & Lyman attack from multi directions is ongoing. The consolidation on the east of Oksil continues, where Ukraine continues to make advances. Not as fast as beginning of Sep, but good progress nevertheless.
3/
Precision strikes in Kherson today, and the AFU continues its advances. Explosions also in Melitopol, likely conducted by partisans. Unconfirmed rumours that train of new mobilised russians destroyed in Luhansk, as well as continued strikes on russian supply lines
1/n What implication does mobilisation have for russia?
Well, it means a few of things. My ramblings in the form of a thread.
2/n
Background
- the state Duma passed new laws about desertion, failure to mobilise, and surrender during war time and martial law, punishable upto 10 years in jail
- These laws include disobeying superior officers, which is also punishable by several years in prison
3/n A declaration of mobilisation followed (& the obligatory threatening of using nukes), & Shoigu saying that 300k soldiers would be mobilised, but they would recruit those with military training & experience first. (Didn't stop the rumours of 1 million mobilisation though!)
Mid-July to late August, Ukraine systematically targeted russian supply lines around Kherson, Kharkiv, Crimea, Donbas & other areas. The 80km HIMARS range, and other undisclosed arms allowed clinical strikes. The AFU warned of an imminent Kherson counter offensive
2/n The russians, seeing the strikes & warnings, started reinforcing Kherson with up to 30,000 soldiers. The Ukrainians continued to attack logistics, and exit routes, making it almost impossible for russia to resupply their forward soldiers.
3/n End of Aug / beginning of Sep, Ukraine announced it was going on the counter offensive for Kherson, but that they would not share any info. Pro russia journalists and politicians immediately used this to say that the counter-offensive on day 1-2-3 was failing / had failed
Together with @UkraineAidOps , we're running a fundraiser for NIGHT VISION Devices for our front-line soldiers! @Harri_Est & I spoke to several units who tell you why these NVDs are so important!
We've prepared some amazing prizes🤩,go to link for details! auctions.ukraineaidops.org/nightvision/Ca…
2/4 Commander of Special Operations Forces unit of the AFU in #Kharkiv tells us how Night Vision devices can help his team.
3/4 Commander of @georgian_legion Mamuka Mamulashvili speaking about the importance of the Night Vision Devices for his unit
Just gonna throw this out there cos I see a lot of “coup d’etat funded by west in 2014” referring to Euromaidan.
Yanukovych (same guy who was ousted in 2014) was literally caught rigging election in 2004, result overturned and Yushchenko won. Same Yushchenko who was poisoned
… just before election. He survived, and then won the re-election.
Where is Yanukovych now? In Russia. Who does he support? Russia.
So, Yanukovych, who is in Russia and is pro Russian and is supported by Russia tried to steal an election in 2004. He failed.
Wait, Maria, so you’re saying that a pro Russian traitor, who has close ties to Kremlin, was and is supported by Kremlin, and is in Russia tried to steal an election in 2004, 10 years before Euromaidan?
The same Russia that signed the Budapest memorandum? That Russia? No way!