Would like to stress that the discussion about “good vs bad Russians” gets us nowhere. Border guards can’t make decisions based on such ambiguous moral criteria. The conditions for entry must be legally clear.
Asylum can be granted if the individual legal case warrants it.
Example: on Saturday, the Finnish border guard caught 4 people illegally crossing the border from Russia. They applied for asylum. Both an investigation on the illegal border crossing and an asylum procedure has been initiated.
According to Finland’s ministry of the interior, so far this year the number of asylum applications from Russia have been within average (400 this year, normally 200-500 in the past years).
Although traffic from Russia to Finland has increased substantially since the announcement of the mobilisation (there are queues at the border - but still not 35km), number of asylum applications has not gone up so far
(Orange line = incoming 🇷🇺 citizens, white line = outgoing)
Update: newest numbers in. Last week, 59 Russian citizens applied for asylum in Finland. More might do so later somewhere else in Europe. Some increase since Wednesday, and a common reason is fear of being drafted to Ukraine.
Signs of eroding solidarity with Ukraine are surfacing: Friedrich Merz (CDU) claims that Ukrainian refugees are using the German system for “social tourism” between 🇺🇦&🇩🇪
Expect this kind of statements to become more frequent when supporting 🇺🇦 becomes increasingly inconvenient
Fact check of Merz’ claims: the source seems to be What’s App, German administration cannot confirm any such activities by Ukrainian refugees correctiv.org/faktencheck/20…
The visa debate has been further complicated by the q of how to deal with Russian draft dodgers. Rifts are becoming evident along two opposite lines: emphasis on the security threat that large numbers of dodgers may pose vs. taking in as many as possible to keep them out of 🇺🇦
While Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania & Poland stick to their newly imposed visa restrictions and Finland also sees the mobilisation as a reason to tighten rather than loosen them, Germany is considering a simplified asylum procedure for Russian deserters.
National and regional solutions become increasingly inadequate but at the same time the likelihood of finding common ground in the EU is decreasing. 🇪🇪🇫🇮🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱 will likely face criticism for closing remaining flight routes while 🇩🇪 will (again) be seen as a weak link for security
There was a heated debate on Thursday about the delivery of tanks and the govt coalition fended off a vote proposed by CDU/CSU (in opposition). This Politico article by @vonderburchard gives a good overview: politico.eu/article/german…
What’s remarkable and should be paid attention to are the differences within the coalition: SPD sticks to the “no going alone” line while its coalition partners, the Greens & FDP, are putting increasing pressure on Scholz to start delivering tanks
In to the German parliamentary tradition, the govt never goes along with opposition motions (and the CDU/CSU knows this). So it’s very much about domestic opposition politics as well. The pressure within the coalition is more relevant for Ukraine
So I made an attempt to understand what exactly is the difference in national legal frameworks that enable Estonia, Latvia Lithuania, and Poland to stop accepting Russian Schengen visa holders save for some exceptions but apparently hinder Finland doing so:
(Disclaimer: I don’t really get it, and the 🇫🇮 MFA & other officials have not been exactly easy to understand in their communication especially what comes to the apparently stricter interpretation of the EU law/ Schengen code than in 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱)
In the absence of an EU-wide decision, the four countries apply national laws:
- in Estonia🇪🇪 it’s a national sanction and applies both for Schengen category C & category D national visa, with 7 exceptions vm.ee/en/consular-vi…
It seems that there are quite a lot misconceptions about the border issue. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have not *closed* their borders to Russia. They only reject short-term (“tourist”) visas. Travelling for other reasons is still possible, as well as goods transit.
So to everyone demanding that the Finnish border be CLOSED: that hasn’t really been on the table at all. All the solutions, be it national/ regional or EU-wide, are only about rejecting/ not issuing *short term visas* for leisure travel purposes.
The newly revised 🇫🇮 Border Guard Act does provide for an almost full closure save for one entry point but only in an extreme threat case. And at this stage that is not being discussed.
🇫🇮 Foreign Minister Haavisto right now: Finland is preparing a national solution to further curb Russian mobility through Finland (with the intent to stop pure leisure travel). Different ministries are currently clarifying whether new legislation is needed
Finland will keep pushing for an EU-wide solution so that the legal situation is clear across Europe
It would send a much stronger signal to Russia if the EU showed unity on the issue & that other 🇪🇺 countries stand with the member states with direct border to 🇷🇺
Since Schengen visas are a common EU policy I really don’t see why 🇫🇮 is criticised for insisting on an 🇪🇺 solution.
It’s the EU that is hiding behind the member states with border to 🇷🇺 by pushing them into national solutions instead of a common decision home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/schen…