I was going through some of my materials today in creation of Academy modules and I found a deck that I put together in summer '20 (post my 2 pod PM jobs and post quant-fund consulting gig) when I was interviewing with a large multi-manager as a PM.
Ultimately I was bounced by that fund after 1 round, so I feel comfortable sharing some of the content that I included in that deck, in case it is helpful to any multi-manager teams that are in scale mode.
So here we go...the team that wasn't...TEAM CAUGHRAN: SCALE PLAN.
TEAM
At this point, in healthcare there were 221 stocks in the US that traded over $5m ADV and over $100m MCAP.
At a multi-manager, my investment process generally capped out at ~40 stocks, so I proposed a team of 5 (including myself) to start.
TEAM
I would be looking for an experienced Biopharma analyst on one side, and an experienced MedTools analyst on the other, with demonstrated subsector knowledge and ability to cover 40 names Day 1 and drive "idea velocity".
With the complexity of risk model management, I felt
like 3 idea generators (myself included) is about minimum viable team to manage a $1bn+ portfolio where 75%+ of the risk is from idiosyncratic factors.
Below those senior analysts, I would have been looking for young "best mental athlete" junior analysts to plug into the
Senior Analyst process, and I was willing to train these juniors (young, cheaper, hungry).
As the team scaled, my plan was to promote the 2 senior analysts to Associate or Junior PM, each with a carve-out, and promote the best junior analyst to senior. This chart shows one of
juniors gone, but that wasn't intentional. With positive P&L, the plan would have been to take the team from ~5 up to 6-8, with three PMs on the team taking risk.
This is the team culture that I was dedicated to establishing.
COVERAGE
I have found (as have most pod PMs) that a coverage model is the best approach at market neutral, factor-constrained models.
The idea velocity necessary to manage risk well & generate consistent P&L makes it really difficult to be a generalist, taking 6 weeks to go
from start to finish on a name. Better to have dedicated killers covering 40 stocks who can pounce at any sign of mispricing. Each of these analysts has a model and a dedicated coverage plan for each name.
As a PM, that means at any time we are prepared to trade all 140 stocks
under coverage.
I planned to cover 20 names (vs. a senior covering 40) to lead from the front on coverage process and stay in the flow of the "central nervous system" stocks in healthcare. Using the rest of my time to manage the portfolio.
Whereas a senior analyst would be 100% dedicated to covering 40 stocks. Identifying the 3 key drivers and price-embedded expectations then focusing research on driving differentiation and, consequently, tradable ideas.
Junior analysts would start as Senior Analyst support (modeling, research assistance) then grow into Coverage as they were ready, generally with smaller names or less covered sectors (Senior Analysts taking the more liquid and more scalable names)
IDEA VELOCITY
The goal was to bring one new idea per week from coverage. Sound like a lot? It is. But if you are closely covering 40 names, after a bit of time it becomes a natural process.
An example might be: "SYK talked down the Q at Morgan Stanley last week...
...but it's underperformed BSX by 9% over the last 2 weeks so it's probably overshot and the talk-down was non-operating". A juicy mean reversion pair like that could go into the book the next morning.
A chunkier, naked, alpha long we might be more considerate about in
finishing full due diligence before it goes into the book.
RESEARCH CADENCE
A reasonable part of the PM job is just keeping the team on track. I tried to keep a master calendar to sharpen focus.
For example, we tried to take 3 weeks in December to focus on our big bets for
the year ahead and for pre-JPM trades. But we had to be responsive to the calendar. Into October, we would work to identify pre-Q3 earnings trades (where hockey stick guidance goes to die).
TEAM MEETINGS
Communication is huge, and I've learned (the hard way) that more is better
In pod land, I've done 8:30am morning huddle, a longer post-close Thursday idea meeting (with a team dinner or drinks often following), then a Friday idea generation meeting for week ahead trades (usually entered before Friday close).
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
I feel like this is it's own lengthy tweet thread, though I'll show you here my approach to portfolio construction & risk management.
In summary, my approach is to first fill in portfolio with highest conviction alpha trades, then highest conviction pairs
then focus on the fillers and tightening of factor exposures.
In a VaR model, orthogonal P&L is critical as P&L is a simple sum but risk is the sum of squares. Massively simplified, four uncorrelated 1-Sharpe P&L streams can add up to a 2-Sharpe book. And a 2-sharp is GOOD.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Again, this slide is probably it's own tweet thread. But I've learned the hard way, "when you're in a hole, stop digging". Pod P&L management is very much, in my experience, about minimizing losses during rough periods so the book can stay scaled and produce
P&L during better periods. Finding the balance of defense vs. offense, I believe, is one of the hardest things for a pod PM.
QUANT OVERLAY
I would overlay my book with a quant fundamental model, which was really effective for me over my career (we will be discussing this
approach at Academy for those interested)
EDGE
And, of course, hiring managers & LPs love to ask PMs about their "edge". Which is kind of funny, since NO PMs EVER sit and talk to each other about their "edge". We all know this is a very hard, highly competitive business with
no short-cuts. But, hey, i was trying to get hired!! I had to come up with something. This was our 3-pronged edge.
TRAINING
And, OF COURSE, we had to have an analyst training approach. Many of the Fundamental Edge training modules were things I WAS TAUGHT in '08, and have been
refined and honed over my various stops on the buy-side over 13 years. Effectively, Academy isn't that different than the training content I gave to my junior analysts back in 2018 (though much better as it has grown & been refined a lot, and includes some amazing guest speakers)
So there we go. Team Caughran. It didn't come to fruition. And I'm FAR from the best pod PM to ever live (evidence: I didn't get the job).
But I hope there are some frameworks in here that can help you if you are at a pod team scaling right now, or in the future!!!
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Except for one micro-penis Zoom bomber, I'd call today's office hours a success! Some really great questions and got some very kind feedback.
By next Tuesday, I will have all of the details of our first Academy finalized and will tweet out the information.
On Thursday the 29th from 5-6:30pm EST I will be hosting an information session for Academy, which will kick off October 24th.
I will walk through a 3-5 minute summary of each of the 16 modules and give an overview of the 4-week program.
I'll also, by that time, be able to give you an overview of our 11 guest speakers. Some incredibly impressive people, and names you will all recognize that will beautifully complement our core Fundamental Edge curriculum.
For the first 6 weeks of my Twitter journey, I took great pride in responding to every DM I received. Trying to help everyone who reached out with a question. And, now, I'm failing at that.
There are too many DMs. I'm still doing my best, but my best isn't good enough. And the unanswered DMs give the helper & people-pleaser in my hives. So I've been thinking of ways to scale my response.
I'm going to do a beta-test today of Zoom Office Hours.
At 5:30pm EST for 60 minutes today, I'll be hosting a FREE Zoom Q&A office hours.
The topics are really open.
Career questions, training questions, questions about Fundamental Edge Academy (though we have an Academy Info Session in the works for next week with all the details)
There are all sorts of methods & frameworks out there for selecting stocks on the buy-side, but I've found that the most common is the tried & true risk/reward ratio (which should be called the reward/risk ratio, but it doesn't quite roll off the tongue)
What is a R/R ratio? A R/R ratio is a measure of how much I will make if I'm right against a measure of how much I'm likely to lose if I'm wrong. Generally, the stock market is incredibly efficient, so even top traders are only correct 52-54% of the time (some less), R/R is key.
To create a R/R ratio, I first want to forecast my return on the stock. I generally baseline this with a 12m return, or where I expect the stock to be trading in 12 months. What P/E will this stock trade at in the fall of '23 on '24 EPS?
There is no surprise that the market neutral, factor-constrained, multi-manager model has taken big market share in the hedge fund industry over the last 10 years. And it makes sense.
A steady return stream uncorrelated to the market return, in a world where
fixed income became nearly un-investible, has been a super compelling pitch to the large LPs of the world who are under increasing pressure to hit 8% endowment returns.
And the firms that have grown up in response to this movement are truly unique. Steve Cohen showed us the
way to make money in this approach, and other large firms have replicated his investment style. You have the mega multi-manager funds funds - Point 72, Citadel, Balyasny, Millennium, but you also have a list of big and growing multi-managers behind them.
I've had a few DMs over the past couple months that went something like this:
"hey Brett, I just started at a HF and I am really overwhelmed. It feels like I never have enough time to get everything done, and my list gets longer every day"
Welcome to the buyside, kid!!!
The incessant nature of public markets and the demanding nature of PMs means that, whether you like it or not, the hedge fund analyst job is intense.
There's no "quiet quitting" at a hedge fund, I'll tell you that much!
So here are 8 suggestions for new analysts who are struggling with buy-side overwhelm.
1) EMBRACE THE QUICKSAND 2) MINIMIZE THESE 3 PRODUCTIVITY KILLERS 3) FIND YOUR 3 GOLDEN PROCESSES 4) COMPARTMENTALIZE 5) BATCH 6) SHARPEN THE SAW 7) BALANCE YOUR ENERGY DRAIN 8) COMMUNICATE