People think the energy crisis is just a blip in the transition to renewables, but it's not. Europe faces rapid de-industrialization & stagflation. Governments are taking over energy markets and politics is the realm of chaos. People who are in a trance need to snap out of it.
European nations are already in conflict
— Netherlands refuses to produce more nat gas
— Belgium & Germany closing nuclear plants
— France opposes new gas pipeline to Spain
— Hungary says sanctions on Russia backfired
U.S. & Canada won't help & winter is still 3 months away
I have since 2016 warned Europeans of the dangers of shutting down their nuclear plants & over-relying on Russia for energy.
While in Europe 2 weeks ago, I was shocked to discover that many still don't get that everything has changed. And so I went off script & was blunt.
On the one hand, we are in totally new & dangerous territory. Europe hasn't ever had an energy crisis like this. Not even in the early 70s.
On the other, we are reverting to historic roles, with the U.S. refusing to help a rapidly fragmenting Europe.
Anyone who says they know what will happen next is lying to you. The reason is that governments have taken over, and governments change. Politics determine governments. And politics is the realm of chaos. Nobody can predict what's going to happen next.
That means that prediction is not helpful or interesting. What's needed is action:
— The U.S. & European governments must pressure Belgium and Germany to keep operating their nuclear plants and re-start ones that recently closed.
— Netherlands must resume gas production ASAP.
— The U.S. & Canada must take emergency actions to expedite oil and gas production and the building of new liquefaction export terminals. Yes, the best time to have done this was years ago. But the second best time is now.
— North America should help Europe frack its shales.
I recognize that the US is in the catbird seat WRT Europe. We could woo Germany's energy-intensive industries to the US. To some extent that will happen no matter what. But history teaches us that it's not in our interest to let Europe fall apart. In fact, it's dangerous.
I recognize that "Europe will make it through the winter," but only if "making it" means people won't freeze to death. What's at stake is not keeping people warm but preventing Europe in general and Germany in particular from de-industrializing and effectively collapsing.
The energy crisis hastens the end of the renewables mania
People think we’ll move to solar & wind but they are too energy-dilute, unreliable, and resource intensive. For those reasons, they make electricity expensive, and will only play a niche role. Natural gas & uranium are the fuels of the future.
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Experts agree that: a) only a government could have blown the Nord Stream pipelines and b) their destruction represents a major setback to Russia, which has been urging Europe to open NS2 and which last week said it prevented an attack on its TurkStream pipeline.
A former Polish defense minister has credited the United States with blowing up two Russian natural gas pipelines to Europe, Nord Stream 1 & 2, the day before Poland opened a major new pipeline from Norway
CIA warned Germany weeks ago of coming attack on natural gas pipelines Nord Stream I & II (from Russia to Germany), reports Der Spiegel.
Russia could have pulled off such an attack but “It is difficult to see whether Russia or Ukraine could have an interest in such an incident”
“From Ukraine's point of view, the permanent interruption of gas supplies from Russia to Germany would be a possible interest in the room. On the contrary, there would be immense political disadvantages that could arise from an attack.”
“Ukrainian special forces are not trusted to take such an action…the Baltic Sea is 70 meters deep. Russian forces can be trusted with such an operation in terms of abilities. However, a political interest is hardly recognizable, except for the incident of blaming other parties”
Democratic leaders say they are trying to get out the truth about climate change & energy, but several have recently made false claims about natural disasters, the causes of oil industry profits, and the consequences of their policies. Why is that?
President Joe Biden, spokespersons for his administration, and Congressional Democrats say they are trying to get out the truth about energy and climate change against Republican and fossil fuel efforts to deny it.
Over the summer, Biden denied he was “limiting oil production” and accused oil refiners of restricting production. In July, WH Nat Sec spokesperson John Kirby said, “natural disasters... are getting worse because of climate change," which, he said, had caused the war in Syria.
Many think lithium batteries are benign but they kill more people than nuclear plants. A fire at a Tesla battery site in California last week forced people to shelter indoors and now a fire at a Tesla factory in Germany has activists demanding its closure. electrek.co/2022/09/26/fir…
A few days ago a fire started by a battery in an electric scooter killed an 8-year-old girl in New York City. In New York alone, lithium battery fires in 2021 killed 3 and injured 57, while in the first half of 2022, they killed 5 people and injured 73.
A fire last Tuesday at a Tesla battery facility in Moss Landing in Monterey County, California emitted so much toxic smoke that the Fire and Sheriff Departments issued a shelter-in-place order, asking people to close windows and vents, and closed roads