Still too many people who want to invest for the long term believe that the stock price tells them a very important story. Sometimes, it does, but often it doesn't, especially not in bear markets.

Let me give you a prime example.
👇
1/5
We all know what happened during the dotcom bust. The #NASDAQ dove almost 80% and many companies even more. A prime example is of course $AMZN, down more than 90% from its previous all-time high at a certain moment.
2/5
So, without knowing which are these, which one would you have chosen based on price action from 1999 to 2001?

I think we can agree that it's the light-blue one. Especially if you know something more about this stock.
3/5
Your choice would even become more obvious if you look at the period 2001-2004, in which the light blue stock rose more than 600%. It was very profitable, unlike a lot of other dotcom stocks. What's not to like, right?
4/5
Now, look at the return from January 2005. The light blue stock was $EBAY, the orange $AMZN and the dark blue #NASDAQ

I know that $AMZN is an exception but I just wanted to show the future is not as certain as some think and short-term price action does not mean that much.
5/5

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More from @FromValue

Sep 28
SBC or stock-based compensation is not a red flag, especially not for tech companies.

Generally, the more a company grows, the higher my tolerance for high SBC. But SBC of over20% of revenue is really high.

How does SBC hurt shareholders?👇
1/
Suppose a company has 100M shares of $1 and $20M in revenue. That's $0.2 revenue per share.

The company has great results and grows its revenue by 50% YoY, so $30M.
As a shareholder, you cheer!🙌

But if SBC is very high, this 50% revenue growth is actually much lower.
2/
Suppose SBC is 50% of the company's revenue, like it was for $SNOW and $PLTR. That means $15M (50% of $30M in revenue).

That brings the total shares to 115M.

The revenue per share is now $0.26 (30M/115M), so the real revenue growth is only +30%, not +50%.
3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 27
Companies like $NET, $CRWD, $DDOG, $OKTA and $TWLO use either DBNRR and DBNER. For SaaS, these are important numbers.

DBNRR stands for dollar-based net retention rate.
DBNER stands for dollar-based net extension rate.

They are similar but with an important difference.👇
1/5
DBNRR (so net retention).
What customers that were already there have spent one year later, including churn.

If you have 100 customers together spending $100K and the next year, 5 $1K customers have left and the rest spends $125K, then the DBNRR is 125% (125/100)
2/5
DBNER (net expansion): this doesn't take churn into account.
Same example, 100 customers spending $100K, 5 $1K customers leave, the rest spend $125K. The DBNER will be higher than the DBNRR, as it takes out churn.
The math: 125/95= 31.6%.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Aug 26
Early on, Jeff Bezos asked investors to judge $AMZN on its OCF (operational cash flow).

Now look at this graph and how closely price and OCF go hand in hand.

How about other retailers? $WMT $TGT $COST $FIVE
You may be surprised at which are undervalued and overvalued.👇
1/5
Now look at this $COST graph. Do you see how closely they also go in synch...until recently? It looks like Costco is pretty overvalued here.
2/5
How about $WMT? I would say fairly valued, although it was historically undervalued on OCF.
3/5
Read 6 tweets
Aug 23
Something personal for once, not about investments.

When I was 23, I had severe eye surgery. I was blind for a week and couldn't do anything for 3 months.

I couldn't listen to music (headaches) could not read, no TV...

It was the most transformative period in my life.

1/6
The reason is that I could do one thing: thinking. I was actually an overthinker but I never took decisions, didn't go to the bottom of things.

I realized I was not happy with who I was. I had serious obesity, despite a sports background and that was a part of it.
2/6
But I also had the feeling that who I was and how I was perceived by others was miles apart. I did what people wanted me to do, not what I wanted to do.

I also drank a lot back then and I realized that if I didn't slowed that down, I could get addicted to alcohol.
3/6
Read 6 tweets
Aug 19
If you want to become a business owner, you have to educate yourself.

Years before I started Potential Multibaggers, I started listening to podcasts and reading books to learn how to build an online business.

Here are 10 of the best "professors"
👇
1/12
1.
@PatFlynn
Pat has two great podcasts, Ask Pat 2.0 and Smart Passive Income. Both are great for hammering down the basic principle of a business: nobody is more important than your customer!

His books Will It Fly? and Superfans are also accessible and really good.

2/12
2. A real professor, Robert Cialdini.

It's a classic, but there is a reason why it's a classic. Influence tells you how you are influenced by how your minds work.

Cialdini doesn't work with vague concepts, as often in psychology, but with evidence-based eternal truths.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
Aug 9
From the earnings call: $TTD

* We continue to gain market share.
* How can we grow so much regardless of the macroeconomic environment:
1. accelerated shift to CTV, going faster than predicted
2. walled gardens like $GOOGL are downgraded in priority. There was no alternative
1/n
But no one in CTV is big enough as $GOOGL with search or Chrome, so marketplace in CTV is fair and very competitive.
CTV is fastly becoming a must-buy!
The draconian tactics of walled gardens are being challenged now.
2/n
3. The worldwide pressure on $GOOGL. We have seen many reports of anti-trust allegations, not just the U.S. but worldwide. $TTD will gain share no matter the outcome of these investigations. Because we don't have any inventory (content), we can work with everyone.
3/n
Read 30 tweets

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