$DDOG is one of my highest conviction positions.

I loaded up between Feb and April when the stock looked mispriced.

The company crushed it in Q1 with:

• 25% revenue growth
• 120% net retention
• $4.4B in cash.

But I won't be adding to my position...

Here's why: 🧵 First, let me be clear, this isn't a bearish call on $DDOG.

I still rate it 8.5/10 on personal conviction and believe the fundamentals remain incredibly strong.

But valuation matters, and the stock is up 33% since I last updated my analysis...

I've been long $CRWD since $93, but I wouldn't buy it now.

The comeback from the devastating outage has been incredible - all-time highs in just 11 months.

But I won't be adding to my position...

Here's why: 🧵 The recovery has been nothing short of remarkable.

All-time highs just 11 months after July 19, 2024 outage.

$1.10B revenue (+20% YoY) with $4.44B ARR (+22% YoY).

If someone told you this on July 20, you'd have laughed.

$SE is up 115% over the last year, and I've been covering why.

The company is firing on all cylinders - $4.8B revenue (+29.6% YoY) with $410M net income.

Every single division is now profitable and growing.

Here's why $SE is still a massive opportunity:🧵 The revenue "miss" story is complete nonsense.

People called it a $50M miss on $4.8B revenue.
That's a 1% variance during massive FX swings.

Q1 GAAP EPS beat by $0.04 at $0.65.

Just watch this chart:

$NVDA just posted the most insane quarter in corporate history.

$44.1B revenue (+69% YoY) from the world's second largest company.

Data center up 73%, and Blackwell ramping faster than any product in history.

Here's why $NVDA is still a buy: 🧵 The numbers are crazy:

$44.1B revenue (+69% YoY)
$39.1B data center revenue (+73% YoY)
$26.1B free cash flow (59% of revenue)

This amount of growth for a company of this size has never happened before in history.

Here's what shocked me most...

The world's most stubborn investor.

Phil Fisher held one stock for 49 years until he died.

He bought Motorola in 1955 for $10 and watched it grow 2000x, turning every $1,000 invested in 1957 into $2 million...

Here are my 8 favorite principles from him:
(No. 6 is fascinating) 1/ Phil Fisher founded his investment firm in 1931 at age 24.

For 70 years, he beat the market using one simple rule:

Buy great companies and (almost) never sell.

He still influences investors today, including me.

Even Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger have praised him:

Everyone treats $NU like a risky bet in volatile Latin America.

But it just added 4.3M new users, grew FX-neutral profits 74%, and now serves 60% of Brazilian adults as their primary bank.

Its 2026 PEG ratio? Just 0.43.

Here’s why $NU is the (Amazon of emerging market banks): 🧵 1/ Most people still don't see what's coming...

Latin American digital banking adoption will be bigger than most people think.

60% of Latin Americans are still unbanked or underbanked.

Digital banking penetration is in early innings...

Visiting $ASML...
Attrition rate, just 3.8% For the pink industries, you need EUV

🤓 Master Financial Models in 5️⃣ Steps 💡

(Learning on Sunday!🙌)

Ever wonder how pros predict a company’s future? 🤔

Spoiler: it’s not a crystal ball 🔮, it’s financial modeling.💡

Most people think it's way more complex than it really is.

You just need a simple, repeatable process.

And guess what? I’ve got one for you!🙂👇 🧵

🔑 5 Steps to Master Financial Models: 🪜Step 1: 🪜

The future potential of a business usually starts with its financial history.

Here’s a simple approach to analyzing financial models effectively:

➡️Review Past Financial Reports: The numbers tell the real story. Study revenues, costs, and profits to find patterns.

➡️Identify Key Drivers: Which factors drive growth? Which hold it back?

I usually put the key drivers on a list that I check each quarter. I call them the Selling Criteria.

⚠️If these weaken, you should be very cautious!⛔️

First let's look at the chart you could see on the right-hand side.

You can see that you have a drop-down menu. I clicked drawdowns and selected maximum.

You can see that $NVDA is now down 8.99% from its recent high, but that it dropped more than 50% multiple times. Let's go to the left-hand side.

There you have several tabs that you can open. You see an overview here. I'll click on estimates for the next post, but all others are very interesting as well. You can do your own modeling, for example.

But estimates 👇

📚Buffett Only Needed 3 Chapters🎯

Warren Buffett said that most of his investing wisdom came from just 3 chapters.

I have summarized them for you.
👇 What are the chapters?

📖 From Benjamin Graham’s classic, "The Intelligent Investor":

Chapter 8: Understanding market psychology and riding out the noise.

Chapter 20: The unbreakable rule of the Margin of Safety.

The other one: 👇

10 Things I wish I knew about investing 20 years ago.

Lesson 1⃣
Companies should be valued according to the phase they are in. Lesson 2⃣

Only 5% of the fair value of a stock is in the next 2 years.

Zoom out and then even more.

Jeff Green changed advertising technology (or in short ad tech)as the founder and CEO of The Trade Desk $TTD

But Green is also known for overcoming the challenges of his background and his public departure from the Mormon Church.

Let's dive into his life's journey. Jeff Green grew up in a Mormon town, Holladay, Utah, on the foothills of the Wasatch Mountains. But little Jeff had big dreams. First he had to overcome his difficulties, though.

There's a lot of talk about the Mag7 being overvalued. Let's examine the valuations from a few different angles.

$NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $TSLA $META Here are the returns of the Mag7 over the last 5 years.

$NVDA 2,363.9%, CAGR 82.62%
$TSLA 1,042.45%, CAGR 58.06%
$AAPL 354.90%, CAGR 32.94%
$MSFT 251.54%, CAGR 26.65%
$GOOGL 179.04%, CAGR 21.27%
$META 168.77% CAGR 20.42%
$AMZN 98.27%, CAGR 13.73%

S&P 500 79.75%
Nasdaq 108.6%

Introducing: $TTD

From $1B (at the IPO) to $49B+ in 8 years.🚀🚀🚀
Disclosure: long $TTD since 2019 ($19.5).

How can $TTD compete with giants like $GOOGL & $META? We look at the 3-part moat.
Is $TTD a buy now?💰
🧵👇 $TTD was founded in 2009 by Jeff Green, a visionary who created the first digital ad exchange AdECN, which was bought by $MSFT in 2007. Green staid there for 2 yrs before founding $TTD.
But what does it actually do?🤔👇

$PAYC is down almost 75% from its high and now trades at a PE of 17.9, the lowest ever.

Is it interesting to buy now? 🔍🕵️‍♂️

A short🧵👇 Investors have punished it for its slower growth, which, according to the company, was caused by Beti, its self-service HR solution, which cannibalizes other revenue streams.
That's the reason why $PAYC trades at a PE of 17.9, the low valuation since its IPO in April 2014. 👀

This is me.

My general state of mind is happy. 😀😀😀
I wake up happy every day, but that was not always the case.

When I was in my early 20s, I was depressed. Just TWO questions that I have been using ever since completely changed my life.

You can use them too!👇 The 1st question is about decision-making:

Suppose you are 90 and have one week to live. When you look back at this moment, will it be important?

In 99% of cases, it won't, so don't put too much pressure on yourself to make the right decision. Don't overthink it. But...👇

While $NU has a market cap of $55B, many don't really know it yet, as I could see again yesterday after another fantastic quarter!

That's why I put together a thread with crucial insights to understand the investment case.

Ready? Go! 👇 $NU was founded 11 years ago in Brazil and recently, it already celebrated its 100 millionth customer (99.3 at the end of Q1).

The customer growth has been explosive, as you can see on this chart.

But customers need to be monetized! 👇

Price/Gross Profit 🙌

One of the most underrated ratios is price/gross profit. It can foreshadow what the business might be worth in a mature state.

Let's do this for widely-followed🔟growth stocks🚀

$TTD $MELI $CRWD $NET $SNOW $DUOL $ZS $SHOP $DDOG $CELH We start with The Trade Desk $TTD.

At a P/GP of 26 times, I think it's quite fully valued without being crazily overvalued.

Next: $MELI

$DUOL' stock price is up 64% over the last year and 140% since I picked it as a Potential Multibagger in September 2022. 🥳🥳🥳

I'm a user (Italian🇮🇹) with an 888-day streak.

Here are some key statistics that help you explain $DUOL's price movement. In the last three years, $DUOL has tripled its revenue. As you can see in this great 🤩@finchat graph, most of that comes from subscriptions.

Those come from users willing to pay to have Duolingo Premium without ads.

Let's dive a bit more into the revenue streams.👇

10 GREAT quotes about volatility.

1. "I think that the business about volatility being risk is a con job which was perpetrated primarily because volatility is machinable."

Howard Marks
🧵👇 2. Day-to-day fluctuations in the profits of existing investments, which are obviously of an ephemeral and non-significant character, tend to have an altogether excessive, and even an absurd, influence on the market.
John Maynard Keynes

GROWTH INVESTING in 5 quotes and 7 tweets.

1. LOSERS
If you are a growth investor, you will have many losers. I've had my share.

But the wonderful thing is that one or a few multibaggers can wipe out all the losers and still allow you to outperform the market.
🧵👇 2. The reason? The ASYMETRIC RISK in investing. You can only lose 100% (unless you are leveraged) but you can gain 10,000% or more.

“It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.”
George Soros
🧵👇