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Oliver Alexander Profile picture
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Sep 27 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
First footage from the gas leaks in Nord Stream 1 and 2.

That is definitely a massive hole or complete rupture judging by the diameter of the surface gas plume.

Basically impossible for any other causes beyond sabotage.
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More from @OAlexanderDK

Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Sep 28
Apparently there are 4 leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines (up from the 3 previously reported) according to the Swedish Coast Guard.

svd.se/a/y67kPE/det-a…
This indicates that all the Nord Stream pipes have been sabotaged. Both NS1 and both NS2 pipes.
This explains something that confused me yesterday. The 3 leaks previously reported where all in different locations, with the two NS1 leaks being a few km away from each other.

In the Danish EH-101 video two leaks can be seen right next to each other.

Image
Read 7 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Sep 28
I have seen a lot of tweets on the Nord Stream leak suggesting the West/NATO did it.

****IF**** this was there case, there are some serious political implications. Firstly this would mean that the Danish government agreed to allow a sizable environmental disaster in its EEZ
This would have been agreed by a Danish government that campaigns on wanting to turn Denmark into a "Green Superpower" focused on sustainable energy and the environment.

If this happened, it would be the riskiest move ever in Danish politics for no immediate gain.
If this agreement got leaked it would completely destroy not only the current government, but the entire Social Democrat party (largest party in Denmark).

The other option being that Denmark did not agree opens up a whole different can of worms.
Read 12 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Sep 28
🧵With this statement Russia is closing one of the final two natural gas pipelines into Europe for Russian natural gas.

The pipelines through Ukraine have been transporting around 38 million cubic meters of natural gas a day.

1/
This is roughly the same amount as was being transported through NS1 when it was operation at 20% capacity in July/August.

The equivalent of approx. 14 billion cubic meters a year

2/
This leaves only TurkStream directly transporting gas into Europe from Russia.

The current daily flow through TurkStream is also roughly equivalent to the 20% capacity NS1, with between 32-45 million cubic meters flowing daily.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Sep 27
Danish PM just stated that leaks on NS pipelines were the result of direct action (sabotage).
Being stated in the press conference that there is no chance of it being an accident and is the direct result of explosions.
Size of the ruptures in the pipelines are too large to be the result of any accident including ship anchors hitting the pipes.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Sep 27
The director of the Danish department of Energy Management states that the leak in the NS2 pipeline is the result of a large hole and not a smaller crack.

They have not yet been able to get close enough to visually assess the damaged pipe yet.

berlingske.dk/samfund/kaempe…
From the Environmental Impact Assessment of the NS2 one can see the difference in the observable surface flow when comparing a hole or rupture to a smaller pinhole leak.
The same document shows the technical specifications and construction of the pipeline. In Danish waters, the steel pipe used is 26.8 mm thick. The pipe is then covered in a 3 layer anti-corrosion coating before being covered in steel reinforced concrete for additional weight.
Read 24 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Sep 26
With Putin's call for mobilization and the sham referenda in the occupied Ukrainian regions, Putin destroyed his and everyone else's last real "off ramp" of this war.

The illegal annexation and mobilization means that he can no longer call a defeat a victory at home.
Putin is no longer able to end the conflict and spin the defeat as a successful "denazification" of Ukraine.

After the annexation there will be no way to spin future Ukrainian offensives to liberate the occupied regions. Any territory liberated will be a direct lost to Russia.
Putin and the military leadership that called for the mobilization may hope that it allows for a stalemate in the conflict as the draftees fill in gaps.

Realistically, this is unlikely due to many of the same issues that the "professional" army has had during this invasion.
Read 8 tweets

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