Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Sep 27, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
I'd say this is a pretty accurate summation of my view of what Putin is doing specifically -- and nuclear bargaining generally. The audience for most nuclear threats, ostensibly presented as others, is more properly understood as the self. Although to be fair ...
... Tywin Lanister said it better. Putin making nuclear threats because they aren't inherently credible.
Putin sounds like Eisenhower on nuclear use in Korea. Ike's team used nuclear threats to convince themselves they were the tough guys and, afterwards, that it was their toughness that yielded the armistice that eluded Truman. A false narrative, but one they believed fervently.
Putin might well talk himself into doing something stupid, just as Ike nearly did. But I don't think we should take Putin's statements at face value, It's no surprise he's not being honest with us, but he's also not being honest with himself.

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More from @ArmsControlWonk

Nov 14
No, it probably can't. At least not anytime soon. A short 🧵.
1. The report was written by a think tank, not technical experts from the 🇺🇦 gov't.
2. 🇺🇦 has ~7 tons of reactor Pu, enough for several hundred simple-fission weapons.
3. The Pu is sitting in spent fuel. To use it, 🇺🇦 would have to build a separation plant, which would take years and cost hundreds of billions.
web.archive.org/web/2024111318…
First, some context. The document is just a report prepared by a think tank that will be presented at a conference. This very much stretches the definition of "news."👇 Image
Read 20 tweets
Nov 8
This is a great idea! If North Korea tests the Hwasan-31 "tactical" nuclear warhead, this is what we'll see. A short 🧵.
According to Kim Yo Jong, the explosive power or "yield" of the Hwasan-31, pictured below, is the same as 900 tons of TNT -- that's much smaller than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima (15,000 tons) or Nagasaki (21,000 tons). Image
Image
The first indication will be a statement from @USGS_Quakes. Some time after that, the @CTBTO will also issue a statement. Here is what those looked like for the last test. Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 4
I am coming around to the idea that Israel's stocks of Arrow-2 and -3 interceptors are either depleted from April or are being saved for more sensitive targets. A little thread on cost effectiveness at the margins.
The US fired 12 interceptors during this engagement from the destroyers Bulkeley and Cole. Assuming they were SM-3 interceptors, that represents the production run for an entire year, at a cost of about $400 million total. (Each interceptor is about $30 million.) Image
Image
Arrow-2 and -3 production rates are classified, but Arrow-3 is more expensive than SM-3 at about $50 million per interceptor. You can see lots of Israeli officials talking about the need to reduce the cost of interceptors and increase production rates.
defensedaily.com/israeli-arrow-…
Read 5 tweets
Sep 13
I think the three big takeaways are:
1. That's likely Kangson. It *is* an enrichment plant.
2. The centrifuges are more advanced than the ones Hecker described in 2010.
3. KCNA did not to show the plant staff or the control room. Someone read about STUXNET.
🧵
As @ColinZwirko reported, the @JamesMartinCNS OSINT team concluded last night that this facility was most likely the presumed uranium enrichment plant at Kangson. I spent the morning quadruple-checking. I think they're right.
nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Here is the team's reasoning. North Korea released 5 images -- 4 inside the "big" hall and 1 inside the annex that @ColinZwirko first noticed under construction in March of this year.
nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Read 18 tweets
May 26
Our friends at @planet have a really nice series of images of the "Typhon" missile launchers that the US has temporarily deployed in the Philippines. A couple of observations. Image
The Mid-Range Capability (MRC) or "Typhon" (named after a Greek giant just to please @tomkarako) is a @USArmy missile system capable of launching the ~500 km-range SM-6 and the ~2000 km-range Tomahawk missiles. There is a nice CRS report on the system.
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF…

Image
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@tomkarako @USArmy The deployment of the system to the Philippines is temporary and coincides with a series of US-RP military exercises. US officials, however, have avoided specifying how long "temporary" will be.
usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-…
Image
Read 11 tweets
May 22
Russia conducted an exercise in which it practiced starting a nuclear war. A short thread.
iz.ru/1699925/2024-0…
We get to see a convoy of Iskander vehicles -- a very rare security vehicle, some transloaders, some containerized missiles (ballistic and cruise) and some support vehicles. Image
We also get to see what seems to be a warhead convoy, although we don't have great reference imagery. Still, we see a different, also very rare security vehicle and some mundane looking trucks, which isn't much but its what we'd expect for the 12 GUMO.
Image
Image
Read 7 tweets

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