The summer ends and things get busy. Haven't posted much, so here is my current stream of consciousness/ramblings. #EFT #OOTT
* Last Friday was scary - the air pockets in rates, the dollar, etc. was spooky. Felt like there could be a crash (like -10-15% S&P). Glad there wasn't.
* Last Friday was scary - the air pockets in rates, the dollar, etc. was spooky. Felt like there could be a crash (like -10-15% S&P). Glad there wasn't.
* The spanking taken by energy on Friday (WTI -6% breaking $80, -7% $XLE, -9% $OIH, -8% $XOP) was essentially the market throwing in the towel on the economy and saying "things will be bad"
* When towels are getting thrown in, fundamentals take a back seat to trading.
* When towels are getting thrown in, fundamentals take a back seat to trading.
* Sentiment $ are more powerful than fundamental $. Which is why oil has the potential to go down "more than you think" in a tape that is puking risk. $70 not unthinkable, even if not fundamentally justified. Cheap assets can get cheaper.
* I am still in the $80+/bbl WTI for the next 3-5 years camp (with $120 as the high end of the trading range). But the excursions outside the range are uncomfortable.
* Some fundamental support for crude is coming with SPR conclusion..but November's a lifetime away in this tape.
* Some fundamental support for crude is coming with SPR conclusion..but November's a lifetime away in this tape.
* The overall market is heavy - look at today's SPX/QQQ rally unable to sustain. Ugh. Not the kind of tape that gives any credit to energy supply/demand, it just fears recession.
* Roadmap is clear..we just gotta figure when the market will get less worried about recession. Easy.
* Roadmap is clear..we just gotta figure when the market will get less worried about recession. Easy.
* Fallout from oil below $80 and choppy environment? Slower spending/activity/projects. Who's gonna further bull up into this weird environment?
* Maybe we see deals accelerate - had been hard to buy stuff as sellers had high expectations. Those have to be moderating some now.
* Maybe we see deals accelerate - had been hard to buy stuff as sellers had high expectations. Those have to be moderating some now.
* On the private side, I'd love to put more capital to work - maybe will have the chance.
*Energy stocks off materially..will companies accelerate share repo? or be frightened? Can make the case for both.
*Energy stocks off materially..will companies accelerate share repo? or be frightened? Can make the case for both.
* What the hell is going on with this Nordstream pipe damage? No way 3 leaks just happen. Why would Russia bomb the pipe - they control supply on the front end? If not them, who? Scratching my head. Anarchists? Internet hackers? Ukranians? I'm all ears - would love your thoughts.
* With this heavy market, it's harder than any time in the past 2 years to step up/into the energy trading correction.The urgency to be a hero just isn't there. Sure, Powell could give a wink/nod that he's done and everything explodes higher....or we could grind lower for months.
* Maybe my angst is exactly the kind of thing that makes great bottoms. And I'm still plenty long..just a nauseous long instead of an in-your-face long.
* As I said at the start...ramblings, but maybe some useful nuggets somewhere.
* Love to hear your thoughts Twittersphere
* As I said at the start...ramblings, but maybe some useful nuggets somewhere.
* Love to hear your thoughts Twittersphere
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