Thread by @Jonathan_Rowson

Three questions on #chessdrama are conflated and it helps to tease them apart.

1. Hans Neimann ever cheated at chess?

-Yes, he admitted to cheating twice in online chess, when he was 12 and 16 (he’s now 19)

Odds of cheating= c100%

(But does this make him “a cheater” today ?)

2. Has Neimann cheated “more and more recently” than he’s admitted?

- Carlsen believes so. Chess cheating expert Regan believes not.

There’s indicative computer evidence, Carlsen’s intuition, Chess.kom statement, Niemann silence, peer suspicion, but no ‘proof’.

Odds: c30%?

3. Did Neimann cheat in his victory against Carlsen at Sinquefield 2022?

Carlsen suspects so, based on body language, heightened(?) accuracy of play, and the prior context of 1 and 2 above. But no plausible mechanism to cheat, and motivated reasoning.

Odds of cheating: c3% ?

I think what’s going on with #chessdrama is a recurring elision between 1, 2 and 3. People will differ on point 2 for sound reasons, depending on what they read into point 1, and that will influence what they think of point 3 as well.

I don’t think Niemann cheated in his recent over-the-board game against Carlsen. I think Carlsen overreacted to losing in an unfortunate way. He seems to have projected a more general serious problem with cheating on to one relatively disempowered person without sufficient cause.

However, I think there is sound reason not to entirely trust Niemann’s claim he has only cheated twice in online events. I have no axe to grind here, but Bayesian logic suggests you shift prior probability based on relevant information. *And yet presumed innocence still applies.*