I have seen a lot of tweets on the Nord Stream leak suggesting the West/NATO did it.
****IF**** this was there case, there are some serious political implications. Firstly this would mean that the Danish government agreed to allow a sizable environmental disaster in its EEZ
This would have been agreed by a Danish government that campaigns on wanting to turn Denmark into a "Green Superpower" focused on sustainable energy and the environment.
If this happened, it would be the riskiest move ever in Danish politics for no immediate gain.
If this agreement got leaked it would completely destroy not only the current government, but the entire Social Democrat party (largest party in Denmark).
The other option being that Denmark did not agree opens up a whole different can of worms.
This would mean that this was done inside the Danish EEZ without their knowledge by an allied nation.
That would be a surefire way to create a massive amount of internal tension within NATO and Europe, again for no immediate gain.
On the other hand, Russia knows that both the NS1 and NS2 pipelines are essentially valueless paperweights at this point, never having a chance to be reopened to anything nearing normal capacity.
Destroying these pipelines sends a message about the threat to other pipelines.
All without actually destroying infrastructure that would result in an immediate response from the West.
And for my mandatory HOT TAKE:
On top of the threat to other pipelines, Putin blew up Nord Stream 1 & 2 to ensure that the reopening of these could not be used as a bargaining tool with the West for anyone who wants to usurp him inside Russia, effectively removing a lifeline for anyone wanting him gone.
The next person that brings up the 8 month old Biden clip "saying he would do this" gets punted into low earth orbit.
He said they would shut it down, they did. Nord Stream 2 was already dead in the water.
Imagine if we took every US politicians tweets as fact.
Politicians tweet dumb shit all the time. If it was a secret CIA black op, the MEPs wouldn't know anything about it. There is no way it wouldn't get leaked with that many politicians in the loop.
Using the good old rule of "If Russia denies it, they most certainly did it", this is the closest we have gotten to confirmation of Russian involvement yet.
Additionally, the destruction of NS1 may also allow Gazprom to avoid paying contractual penalties for not supplying gas through the pipeline, as this would fall under "force majeure".
For the comments of it not being an "environmental disaster" because it is natural gas and not oil. The release of all the gas in the pipelines will still have an effect on greenhouse gas emissions. Is it as bad as oil? No, but would still be a hard sell for a "green" government.
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This indicates that all the Nord Stream pipes have been sabotaged. Both NS1 and both NS2 pipes.
This explains something that confused me yesterday. The 3 leaks previously reported where all in different locations, with the two NS1 leaks being a few km away from each other.
In the Danish EH-101 video two leaks can be seen right next to each other.
This is roughly the same amount as was being transported through NS1 when it was operation at 20% capacity in July/August.
The equivalent of approx. 14 billion cubic meters a year
2/
This leaves only TurkStream directly transporting gas into Europe from Russia.
The current daily flow through TurkStream is also roughly equivalent to the 20% capacity NS1, with between 32-45 million cubic meters flowing daily.
3/
The director of the Danish department of Energy Management states that the leak in the NS2 pipeline is the result of a large hole and not a smaller crack.
They have not yet been able to get close enough to visually assess the damaged pipe yet.
From the Environmental Impact Assessment of the NS2 one can see the difference in the observable surface flow when comparing a hole or rupture to a smaller pinhole leak.
The same document shows the technical specifications and construction of the pipeline. In Danish waters, the steel pipe used is 26.8 mm thick. The pipe is then covered in a 3 layer anti-corrosion coating before being covered in steel reinforced concrete for additional weight.
With Putin's call for mobilization and the sham referenda in the occupied Ukrainian regions, Putin destroyed his and everyone else's last real "off ramp" of this war.
The illegal annexation and mobilization means that he can no longer call a defeat a victory at home.
Putin is no longer able to end the conflict and spin the defeat as a successful "denazification" of Ukraine.
After the annexation there will be no way to spin future Ukrainian offensives to liberate the occupied regions. Any territory liberated will be a direct lost to Russia.
Putin and the military leadership that called for the mobilization may hope that it allows for a stalemate in the conflict as the draftees fill in gaps.
Realistically, this is unlikely due to many of the same issues that the "professional" army has had during this invasion.