Thread by @Kasparov63

This is the same argument for “lowering risk” that was used when Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014: Don’t fight him and he’ll go away. Today, because of that mistake, the costs and risks are far higher, but you want to repeat the blunder.

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1574845594178314240

Making concessions to Putin to relieve short-term pressure only guarantees greater escalation later—a time span that will grow shorter each time. It gives Putin more time and resources and convinces him you’ll fold again over bigger threats next time.

Many in the West are so eager to declare a false peace with a war criminal dictatorship, to be hailed as a voice of reason and diplomacy in the moment, that they fail to achieve real peace. It’s just kicking the can, appeasement poorly disguised as diplomacy.

Ukrainians are fighting and dying, sacrificing in a way a generation of Western nations refused to despite being far more powerful. Those nations, including the US, instead made deals with Putin, gave him trillions, held summits. Abandon Ukraine again?

The “diplomatic” cognitive error is not understanding, or not wanting to understand, that reducing your perceived tension with a dictator increases the actual risks, including nuclear risk. This should not need to be explained again after what happened this year.

Read Russia–West news from 2021, up until Putin started massing forces on Ukraine’s border. Despite Navalny, there were summits, pipeline deals, etc. all during Russia’s brutality in occupied Ukraine since 2014. Putin attacked because of all that, not in spite of it.

Saying “let’s stop the violence” or “peace now,” sounds so nice. It’s also music to a dictator’s ears because of course Putin won’t stop his violence when you stop fighting. And he’ll have time to consolidate and rearm for his next attack. Learn from experience, for once.

The risks for Putin have increased for once, thanks to Ukraine’s bravery and skill plus Western allies who found an unexpected leader in faraway Kyiv. Putin is losing, the only road to a real peace, to lower risks. Don’t throw him a lifeline again. Glory to Ukraine.