A thread on how cutting the top rate of tax will raise MORE revenue
International evidence shows clearly that cutting top marginal tax rates invariably increases revenue and just as importantly that raising them reduces revenues. Here are some international and UK examples: 1/16
The top rate of US income tax was raised to 71% during WWI with dire economic results and was later cut to 25% by Presidents Coolidge & Harding. As a result, revenues nearly doubled. The share of tax paid by those earning over $100k rose from 28% in 1921 to 51% in 1925. 2/16
President Kennedy's 1963 tax cuts reduced taxes at all levels, cutting the top rate from 91% to 70%. Total income tax revenue increased from $68.8 bn in 1964 to $95.7 bn in 1968. The share of tax paid by those earning over $50k went up from 12% in 1963 to 15% in 1966. 3/16
President Reagan cut the top rate of US income tax from 70% to 50% in 1981 and cut the top rate again to 28% in 1986. The share paid by the top 10% of taxpayers increased from 48.0% in 1981 to 57.2% in 1988. 4/16
President George HW Bush raised the top marginal income tax rate to 31% in 1990. Tax receipts fell as a % of GDP and in 1991 after the tax increase richer taxpayers paid $6.5 billion LESS than they had in 1990. 5/16
In 2003 President George W Bush reduced the highest rate of income tax from 39.6% to 35% and the dividend tax from 39.6% to 15%. From 2004 to 2007 federal tax receipts increased by $785 billion with the bulk of that coming from the better off. 6/16
During the period 2003 to 2006 the number of Americans filing tax returns claiming income of over a million almost doubled, from 181,000 to 354,000. The total taxes paid by these millionaire households rose by 107% in just two years, from $132 billion to $273 billion. 7/16
When the top federal tax rate in Canada was cut from 45% in 1981 to 29% in 1990, the share of tax receipts paid by the top 10% of taxpayers grew from 29% in 1981 to 45% in 1992. 8/16
India in 1984 reduced its top income rate from 65% to 50%. As a result, tax revenue in the 1985 fiscal year rose by 20% over 1984. 9/16
In 1997 Indian income tax rates were reduced for all taxpayers with the effective tax rate declining from 22% to 16.3%. Over the following six years revenue rose by a ratio of 1:1.4 - for each 1% decline in the tax rate, revenue increased by 1.4%. 10/16
France in 2006 reduced the top marginal rate from 48.09% to 40%. That and further cuts in marginal tax rates until 2007 resulted in substantially higher tax receipts as this graph shows: 11/16
Sweden increased income tax for high-earners by 3% to 60% in 2016. The affected group reduced their earnings and less revenue was raised. 12/16 bit.ly/3RnM6Wd
In 1979 Chancellor Geoffrey Howe cut the top rate from 83% to 60%. Before the cut, the top 1 percent of UK taxpayers paid only 11% of the total income tax take. By 1988 they were paying 14% of income tax revenue. 13/16
In 1988 Nigel Lawson cut top rates from 60% to 40% and receipts rose further. By 1997 the top 1% of earners paid a huge 21% of the total tax bill. This chart shows the huge increases paid by higher earners as a result of the Howe-Lawson reforms: 14/16
In April 2013 Chancellor Osbourne cut the additional rate of income from 50% to 45%. In the subsequent year £8bn more revenue was raised. The top 1% of taxpayers now pay 30% of income tax. 15/16
All the evidence suggests that the cut in the top UK rate from 45% to 40% will increase tax revenue and that any subsequent raising of the rate from 40% would decrease revenue. 16/16
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A Bloomberg analysis of 5 million company filings shows a big spike in departing business leaders over recent months, with more than 4,400 disclosing an overseas move over the last year.
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April exits were up 75% from 12 months earlier and the highest in 4 years.
Many departing are non-doms and if 25% of those leave then the Treasury starts losing serious money. “I’d be stunned if we didn’t get to 25%” said Catrin Harrison of law firm Charles Russell Speechlys.
Bloomberg spoke to over a dozen lawyers and other advisers to the ultra-rich who said anywhere from 15% to 65% of their non-dom clients are already out or are making plans to depart the UK.
Do you trust the Government to decide where your pension funds should be invested?
The Treasury has just said “The government will take a reserve power in the Pension Schemes Bill to set binding asset allocation targets.”
It's a shocking expansion of state power
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If the Government wants to get more pension money invested in British shares it should reverse Gordon Brown's tax grab & restore the pension dividend tax credit. And it should scrap stamp duty on shares.
But then it would have less cash to give to the public sector unions.
Robert Shrimsley says in the FT: "Like many of you, I suspect, I’ve come to the view that Rachel Reeves should oversee more of my financial decisions.
Who wants to see their retirement pot frittered away on cowboy outfits like Nasdaq indices or Nvidia when we could be supporting great British entrepreneurs like Michelle Mone?"
Angela Rayner's tax hike proposals would “seriously risk wrecking savers’ retirement plans” according to Andrew Tully of financial advisers Nucleus.
Punishing savers in order to reward public sector unions is not a morally justifiable policy
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“Savers need confidence that the goalposts won’t constantly shift. Rather than constantly tweaking rules we need cross party consensus on issues like this to deliver the stability required,” Tully said.
“Removing the dividend allowance may drive behavioural changes, including moving into assets that don’t produce a dividend or ensuring investments are appropriately held in wrappers," said Claire Trott, head of advice at St James’s Place.
This week Britain will be hit by a range of horrifying tax increases which will inflict major damage to the finances of British citizens, to businesses & to the economy.
We detail 12 scheduled tax hikes below
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Tax hikes are programmed for April 1 and April 6.
The greatest economic damage will be caused by hikes to Employer NI contributions. The rate will go up by 1.2ppts to 15% & the threshold cut to £5k, dragging many more low-paid & part-time workers into its scope.
The prospect of the hikes destroyed business confidence and has already led to major reductions in hiring & investment, lower pay & some lay-offs.
Now that the tax hikes are actually occurring, the pressure to reduce staff costs and numbers will be much greater.
The OBR budget watchdog downgraded its forecast for capital gains tax revenue for the next 5 years, reducing the projected tax take by £23b
No surprise there, as hikes in CGT invariably lead to reduced revenues. Labour's ideology driven CGT hikes are having the same effect
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Under reforms introduced by Tony Blair’s Government, from the year 2002-03 business assets attracted a reduced rate of 10% CGT if held for more than 2 years. CGT revenues increased sharply as a consequence, doubling in 3 years.
Conversely after the Tories in 1988 increased CGT rates by ten points from 30% to 40%, revenues fell dramatically, more than halving from £2,175m in 1987-88 to £976m in 1990-91 & further still to £606m in 1992-93.