Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW9 – Wildcard Special

Greetings everyone. Welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover the Wildcard & address the most common FPL dilemmas before GW9:

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Here I share the team I would have picked if I was Wildcarding this week:

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Q) Who is the best Isak replacement?

Toney: The obvious candidate to replace him and on paper the best replacement.

Incredibly, Brentford are only behind Man City for big chances and Toney is only behind Haaland for big chance involvements this season.

Solanke: Truth be told, Bournemouth and Solanke do not inspire me with any confidence at all:

*Bournemouth are by far the worst team in the league for expected goals (xG)

*They are yet to record an xG of over one in any of their seven games

*They are also among the only two teams in the league averaging fewer than 10 shots per game

*Solanke is yet to register a big chance and is not even in the top 40 forwards for expected goal involvements (xGi) per 90

However, I still think that Solanke is a good buy...

... as he effectively needs to do very little to justify his price because of the upgrades in the squad that he allows. All four of the sides he is scheduled to face in the next four are in the bottom half for big chances conceded this season...

... He reminds me very much of Pukki who did a decent job last season when he had decent fixtures despite playing for a very poor Norwich side.

My point is that budget strikers will go through spells where they can still represent value, despite playing for the lesser sides.

Wilson: I think he is far too injury prone to risk jumping on as soon as he returns from injury.

Watkins: Villa are ranked 19th for xG this season. If you’re backing a team with poor underlying statistics, surely it makes more sense...

... to spare the extra one and a half million and go for Solanke instead?

Daka: According to local media reports, Vardy is in contention for a start against Forest which puts Daka’s starting position at risk.

Saving: This allows you to get another week of information – you never know if the likes of Broja or Daka become legitimate options by this time next week.

Q) Is it worth selecting Trent, Cancelo and Martinelli on Wildcard?

Trent: I’d pick Trent on Wildcard – he is first for expected assists among defenders this season and saves you the hassle of having to make additional transfers to buy him in the future.

Cancelo: There is an argument to be made to avoid Cancelo as Man City blank in GW12, but very much like my argument for Trent, I believe that selecting him now saves you the hassle of having to make additional transfers to buy him in the future...

... Man City have an incredible fixture run from GW13 - a point at which Cancelo will be a must have.

Martinelli: Despite the fact Arsenal have an upcoming blank in GW12, I believe Martinelli is worth persisting with. He is still by far and away the best pick statistically...

... when it comes to midfielders priced £7.0m and under. Arsenal have decent fixtures either side of the blank, so there’s little point booking in a transfer and buying him for a higher price later.

Q) Which keepers to select on Wildcard?

I’d go with Guaita and Iversen.

The goalkeeper position is a tough nut to crack on the GW9 Wildcard team - hence I have gone with the cheapest possible option who I believe offers both saves and clean sheet potential in the...

... times to come.

Crystal Palace have terrible defensive statistics this season but that is a result of the tough fixtures they have had - from now on they have a favourable run-in till the time the World Cup starts which is ideal for those selecting a goalkeeper now.

We have seen defensive solidity from Crystal Palace under Vieira in 2021/22 in the past and that is enough for me to select Guaita based on the historical evidence we have.

There are a growing number of voices among the Leicester supporters asking for Iversen's inclusion...

... as the first-choice keeper.

Ward has had a really poor start to the season but so far Rodgers has stuck with him.

After the Spurs game, Rodgers hinted that he will reconsider his commitment to Ward so I believe this is finally the week where Iversen is given his chance.

Q) Which two players to buy as priority transfers if you don’t own this week?

I’d go with Maddison and Mitrovic.

I've never really considered Maddison as a good FPL pick over the years but his numbers have been sensational in 2022...

... His underlying data has improved by quite a stretch this calendar year and some signs of a return to form were shown by him in Leicester's fixture v Spurs. For context, he created four chances and recorded seven shots – the highest among all players in the game.

Yes, Leicester haven't hit the ground running this season - but their fixture run from GW9 onwards is as good as it gets.

They are home to Forest, away to Bournemouth, home to Palace and home to Leeds in their next four fixtures. I'd struggle to hand-pick a better run than that.

Despite the recent blank against Forest, Mitrovic should be a high priority buy as well. He is second only to Haaland for xGi in the first eight GWs despite having faced Liverpool, Arsenal, Brighton and Spurs in that run...

... Now Fulham have a much more favourable run in the times to come. At his price, he is irresistible.

Q) De Bruyne to Salah – yes or no?

This is a tricky question to answer this week.
De Bruyne is first among midfielders for big chance involvements this season so there is no obvious reason to sell him. If you’re a risk averse or a risk neutral manager, you’re better off saving.

... The move only makes sense if you think that Salah is the best captain this week. If you feel like chasing points or playing aggressively, then I like the De Bruyne to Salah transfer.

I don’t think there is a better differential in the game than a Salah (c) at the moment.

Q) When to Wildcard – GW9 or GW13?

I’ll run you through the benefits of playing the Wildcard in either window and leave the choice for you to make depending on which strategy suits your team better:

GW9:

*If you’ve loaded up on triple Arsenal and triple City, you’ll have a difficult time navigating GW12. In that case, it makes more sense to Wildcard right now and plan for GW12 in advance

*GW9 gives you the opportunity to own Trent and Salah as differentials, which is crazy in its own right!

*By Wildcarding in GW9 you’re giving yourself eight weeks to benefit as opposed to four

*There is a better chance of being able to afford an “ideal” WC team in GW9 than in GW13 due to the additional price changes that could happen in a month’s time

*Rotation will definitely be a big factor after GW12 as a result of the short turnarounds hence it would be very difficult to nail an “ideal” WC team later

GW13:

*You can dead-end your team into GW12 by getting rid of the Man City and Arsenal assets. That allows you to play more aggressively and sell the likes of Haaland around the time he blanks. Can easily then bring them back in later

*If you’re Wildcarding in GW9, you’re buying players from Leicester/Crystal Palace which isn’t ideal. Spurs, Man City and Arsenal all have great fixtures from GW13 onwards and their assets present us with more reliability and explosiveness

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Here is my Fantasy5 team:

*Mitrovic is the best pick from the fixture

*Ward Prowse/Bowen on penalties

*KDB historically tends to do well in big games and one of the nailed City mids

*Aaronson as he’s the most likely Leeds attacker to play 90 minutes

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