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Sep 29 โ€ข 19 tweets โ€ข 5 min read
@IvoZelinka has posted a useful and informative thread from a military professional's perspective looking at the comparative differences between the Russian (๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ) and Ukrainian (๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ) armed forces. Here's an English translation, linking to a Czech fundraising drive at the end. โฌ‡๏ธ /1
Which is better - the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russian or ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukrainian army?

Is it even possible to determine? If so, in what and how is it assessed?

Fortunately, military science knows the answer in the form of six so-called "Warfighting Functions" - the capabilities of combat organizations. /2
You may be surprised. Let's go over it together.

The six so-called "Warfighting Functions" include:

1. Command and Control System
2. Maneuver
3. Newsroom
4. Firing
5. Logistics
6. Protection

And the influence of command culture and the information environment. /3
With everything, it's a matter of comparing ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ with ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ so let's determine who has the โž• and โž– and why. /4
Command and Control System

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โž–
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โž•

Class difference.

The ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ invasion force failed to adhere to the principle of unity of command and, thanks to the Soviet system, cannot delegate authority. /5
In contrast, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ had a clear chain of command from the beginning. It is also generationally younger and trained to western standards. /6
Maneuver

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โž–
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โž•

Class difference.

The ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ invasion force achieved initial success only on the southern operational direction, the northern operational direction near Kiev was a spectacular defeat. /7
In contrast the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ army can appropriately mix tactics of "corrosive approach" and well-thought-out counterattacks. /8
Intelligence

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โž–
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โž•

A tangible advantage.

The ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ army has not mastered the initial intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) and is not taking advantage of paper superiority in technical reconnaissance. /9
Every ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ citizen is also a sensor (see link) + western help in intelligence. /10

Fires

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โž•
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โž–

Perceived disadvantage.

The ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ military has a noticeable advantage in virtually all categories of weapon systems along with larger ammunition supplies. /11
From a ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ perspective, there is a gradual erosion of the disadvantage by the supply of Western weapons and degradation of the enemy's capabilities. /12
Logistics

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โž–
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โž•

A tangible advantage.

The ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ army's logistics stands and falls on two things - the railway and human arms. Add to that the inappropriate structure of battalion groups (lots of artillery but not enough logistics). /13
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ benefits from short supply lines and Western aid. /14
Force protection

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โž•
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โž–

Partial disadvantage.

The ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ army is currently on the operational defensive, which makes force protection easier. It also takes advantage of the higher stock of armored vehicles. /15
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ lacks armoured equipment, but is adapting to new threats (e.g., ability to jam ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท suicide drones). /16
Does it follow that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ has a win in its pocket?

No, but we know where it needs help - in increasing firepower and protecting the troops. How do we do that? /17
Figuratively speaking - we need to send Tomรกลก [a Czech T-72 Avanger tank that's currently the focus of crowdsourcing, see link below] to the front as soon as possible, with a wagon load of ammunition behind him. There's only a short distance to go โคต๏ธ
/end
zbraneproukrajinu.cz/kampane/cesky-โ€ฆ
(Original thread in Czech is linked below.)

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Oct 1
The Russian Rybar Telegram channel has posted a "Chronicle of Battles" video setting out the events of the fall of Lyman from a Russian perspective (in English, interestingly enough). Text transcript follows: /1
By mid-October 1 it was clear that Russian forces had failed to turn the situation in Lyman. /2
๐Ÿ”ปAFU concentrated their efforts on three road segments: Lyman โ€” Zarichne, Torske โ€” Kreminna, and Torske โ€” Svatove. Having correctly allocated forces, AFU concentrated on cutting the lines of communication of the Russian forces. /3
Read 10 tweets
Oct 1
Another commentary on a Russian Telegram channel reflects on the defeat at Lyman defends Colonel-General Lapin, whose performance has been heavily criticised by Ramzan Kadyrov, and puts the blame instead on communication and control deficiencies โ€“ which is indeed plausible. /1 Image
Translation follows (h/t @RALee85):

About Lapin

I know the Comrade General from Syria. In 2017, his people arrested me in the desert, I spent 4 hours in the caring hands of guys from the Central Military District. /2
We have been working with the 'Brave' [special forces group] since June. They lived on the front line and saw everything with their own eyes. Lysychansk fell thanks to the efforts of the Central Military District. /3
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Oct 1
Is the Russian military's haphazard approach to combat training a contributing factor to its defeat at Lyman? This post from a Russian Telegram channel reflecting on the Lyman debacle argues the case very bluntly (h/t @RALee85). Translation follows. โฌ‡๏ธ /1 Image
Translation:
That's right, when the parade-obsessed Kantemirovki and Tamani [members of the 4th Guards Tank Division and 2nd Guards Taman Motor Rifle Division respectively] of the Western Military District have annual jerking off for parades, tank painting, drill, ... /2
and other bullshit instead of combat training, then what fucking successes in war can we talk about? And then there's the slides and reports the officers are inundated with... we have a systemic problem in the Moscow District! [where both divisions are based] /3
Read 6 tweets
Oct 1
@RALee85 Translated text (thanks to @wartranslated):
I have always said: there is nothing better than truth said aloud, even if bitter, offensive, but still truth. This is the only way to move forward. Therefore, I cannot remain silent about what happened in Krasny Liman. /1
@RALee85 @wartranslated The defence of this sector was led by the commander of the Central Military District, Colonel- General Alexander Lapin. The same Lapin, who received the star of the Hero of Russia for the capture of Lisichansk, although de facto he was nowhere near it. /2
@RALee85 @wartranslated Lapin was also given over to the troops of the Western Military District. /3
Read 16 tweets
Sep 30
Quite a remarkable intercepted call here of a Russian soldier telling his mother about conditions in the field, notably a story of a medic whose idea of 'treating' the troops' complaints is to humiliate them so that they don't ask for any more treatment. Transcript follows. โฌ‡๏ธ
- (W) Is everyone alive and well?
- (R) For now, yes.
- (W) What do you mean, for now?
- (R) An offensive is being planned here. A breakthrough.
- (W) A breakthrough? I read today that someone has already broken through, but not in your direction, in another. Did they not reinforce you? Not brought people?
- (R) No. There's three companies here and that's all.
- (W) What can you do with three companies?
- (R) Don't know.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 30
@Nat_Vasilyeva Translation: What I have attached, it has just been shown to me by the First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly for Education, leaves no doubt that whole cells are at work! /1
@Nat_Vasilyeva These are the real extremists who are setting our country on fire. And what if the DCPI of the FSB (military counter-intelligence service) investigates my version (even though it seems like a conspiracy theory to me too)? /2
@Nat_Vasilyeva Doesn't it seem strange, illogical that even the Defence Ministry cannot cope with its individual units working to undermine the country's defence capability and the foundations of the constitutional system? /3
Read 7 tweets

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