Thread by @SafetyinNumbrz

New meta-analysis shows vaccination (mostly mRNA vaccines) moderately reduced Long-COVID risk.

I propose those same data also show:

**No, mRNA vaccines do NOT increase risks for symptoms like those of Long-COVID overall. Actual COVID does that.** 🧵1/

mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/1…

Do not reply unless you're ready to treat these data in rigorous, scientific, dispassionate ways. It won't make you or your msg look good, it will just drive traffic to my argument.

But if you *do* have legit, scientifically-rigorous rebuttals or questions, pls give feedback.

Main Argument:

Where vaccination does not affect LC symptoms, lacking vaccination also cannot have a statistically-significant effect.

And where vaccination improves certain outcomes, it cannot simultaneously worsen them.

My premise:

For most LC symptoms, there was NO statistically-significant link btwn vaccine status & symptom frequency after infected.

This means 2x-vaxxed risk wasn't really better than unvaxxed for some symptoms.

Which *necessarily* means being unvaxxed wasn't better either.

For some symptoms, there WAS a true link, showing that 2x-vaxxed people were less likely to get the following symptoms of Long-COVID:

Cognitive dysfunction
Kidney problems
Muscle pain
Sleep disorders

And a slight link to better odds for avoiding:
Anxiety/Depression
Fatigue

Obviously, for symptoms where vaccines reduced Long-COVID risk, vaccines cannot therefore have increased the same risk. In fact, it means that being unvaccinated increased the risk.

On the other hand, where did vaccination increase illness risk in this large meta-analysis?

Nowhere.

Not one symptom.

Not in young people or old people.

Not even in partially-vaccinated people.

Those with only 1 vaccine dose did NOT benefit from overall reductions in Long-COVID risk but 2-vaxxed had a 20% better chance of avoiding all LC.

So introducing an incomplete & less-protective amount of vaccine in the body STILL didn't increase risk. And more doses were better.

All LC data collected following COVID infection (or suspected infection).

It did not include those who were able to avoid infection in the first place, meaning those who benefited most from vaccination weren't included. Which underreports the total risk reduction of LC.

This type of immunity from infection wanes, but can prevent infection in the first place in up to 70% of people with Omicron before declining over time, which further decreases LC risk, since people who aren't infected can't get LC from the infection they avoided.

But it also means that since vaccine injuries *do* occur (albeit in very small numbers), people who will never be exposed/infected take a small risk with vaccination.

People vaccinating are essentially betting that they will be exposed.

If they are never exposed & are ALSO unlucky enough to have a bad reaction, they lose that bet.

If they have a bad reaction, but are exposed, or if they are never exposed but no bad reaction, they still win.

For a disease that has infected > 80% of the entire population in some groups, almost no one has been able to avoid exposure entirely.

Making this bet a sure "win" for every vaxxed person, even those few unlucky ones who sustained legitimate injury. The odds still favored them.

Also, vaccination *dramatically* increases your chance of surviving COVID infection.

Only survivors can live to have long-COVID symptoms. The larger percentage of unvaxxed ppl who died from COVID skew the data: they would have had LC if they had lived, but weren't counted.

How do I know they would have had LC if those who died had lived?

Those who have severe infection have EXTREMELY high rates of LC, increasing w/ hospitalization & ICU. Up to 80+%. Those that died had even more severe infection. Very few would have fully miraculously recovered.

What about risks like heart attacks or myocarditis?

The meta-analysis does not explicitly address all outcomes of COVID or vaccines, however most of these have some symptoms that were captured, like fatigue, pain, or breathing problems.

Vaccines didn't make any symptoms worse.

So what does all this mean, exactly?

Vaccines modestly reduce both infection & LC risk. They are not good enough on their own to protect people or keep society functionally safely/normally.

#BringBackMasks and other NPIs.

We also have long-term big-population data showing that vaccination does NOT increase the risk of any of these bad outcomes. Overall, it's unlikely many bad long-term outcomes were caused by vaccination.

However, COVID still increases risk.

#CovidIsNotOver #COVIDisAirborne