Starting with territory... there are four categories of territory in dispute:
1. Occupied by Russia but not annexed. 2. Occupied by Russia and annexed yesterday. 3. Annexed by Russia but occupied by Ukraine. 4. Taken by Russia in 2014.
Each of those pose different kinds of negotiating problems. And it looks like Ukraine is shifting some territory from category 1 to category 3 which makes it a difficult, dynamic situation.
There’s an imaginable world out there where Russia offers a cease-fire along lines of control that leave it in possession of significant portions of Ukraine. That’s a really complicated world for diplomacy.
It’s a world in which we need to have complicated conversations about justice and peace and the dreadful costs of continuing the biggest war that Europe has seen in 75 years.
It’s a world in which Kyiv, London, Paris, Berlin, and Washington will need to have conversations about the parameters of the possible, and about the best way to approach negotiations in order to secure the things that we value individually and collectively.
@chrislhayes@RossBarkan Forcing Ukraine to concede Russian gains thus far does exactly this. It incentivizes further Russian offensive action *in this war* and it incentivizes Russian aggression in other contexts.
How do folks not understand this?
@chrislhayes@RossBarkan "Let's end Russia's proclivity for aggressive war by minimizing the costs Russia has to pay for aggressive war! I personally can see no downside to this strategy."
@chrislhayes@RossBarkan "Being a smart person who has heard the term 'diplomacy' and once played a board game about it I am also of the opinion that the United States can force Russia to adopt a cease-fire despite the fact that Russia has not yet proposed anything that looks like a cease-fire."
Forcing Ukraine to make peace by cutting off support for its military DOES NOT SERVE PEACE. It does not support the establishment of a stable, equitable settlement to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
It leaves Ukraine vulnerable, in the very short term, to the occupation of more of its territory by Russia. It directly rewards the aggression of the Russian state with territorial concessions and imposes no costs upon Russia for that aggression.