Thread by @georgewbarros

September 30, 2022 map update for @TheStudyofWar.

Ukrainian forces have tightened their grip around Lyman and will likely capture or encircle Lyman within the next 72 hours.

Ukrainian forces captured Drobysheve, Yampil, reportedly captured Stavky.

Details and more below.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1575992752176766982

We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives around Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, given multiple Russian reports and geolocated imagery indicating Ukrainian advances around Lyman.

1. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to Yampil and Drobysheve, Donetsk Oblast, given geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces in both settlements. Donetsk People’s Republic leader Denis Pushilin reported on September 30 that Yampil and Drobysheve are “not fully” ...

under Russian control. Russian milbloggers reported that Russian forces withdrew from the towns. Union of Donbas Volunteers quoted a battalion commander who reported his unit withdrew from Drobysheve to avoid encirclement by Ukrainian forces.

Sources:

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1575843756351188992

;

Sources continued: t.me/pushilindenis/…;

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1575780866713784320

; t.me/sddonbassa/185…; t.me/boris_rozhin/6…; t.me/DonbassYasinov…; t.me/rybar/39588;

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1575842828877692933

;

https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1575899970322182144

;

https://mobile.twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/1575787398499168256

;

https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1575760059178811393https://t.me/epoddubny/12668

;

Sources continued: t.me/sashakots/36120; t.me/strelkovii/3401; t.me/smotri_z/6317; t.me/nm_dnr/9136; t.me/swodki/170156; t.me/bayraktar1070/…; t.me/NeoficialniyBe…

2. We advanced Ukrainian counteroffensives to Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, given that multiple Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces captured Stavky.

Sources: t.me/wargonzo/8527; t.me/rybar/39568

3. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives across the Zherebets River at Novoliubivka and Nevske, Donetsk Oblast, given that a Russian milblogger reported on Ukrainian efforts to break through near these two settlements and Russian milblogger Rybar reported on September 30...

that Ukrainian forces crossed the river are operating in the area of the highway to Svatove, Luhansk Oblast.

Sources: t.me/rybar/39568; t.me/milchronicles/…

4. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to the forests south of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast, given that Russian milblogger Military Chronicle claimed on September 30 that Ukrainian forces crossed the Seversyi Donetsk river at Dronivka and are in the forest southeast of Kreminna.

Source: t.me/milchronicles/…

5. We recoded Petropavlivka, Kharkiv Oblast, as Ukrainian counteroffensives given that the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces shelled Petropavlivka on September 30. Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…

5. We expanded Russian advances in Nesterianka, Zaporizhia Oblast, given that we observed combat footage posted on September 30 which shows a Ukrainian strike on Russian forces south of Nesterianka.

Source:

https://twitter.com/5urpher/status/1575929801751539712

6. We expanded Russian assessed advances south of Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, given new geolocated combat footage near Soledar.

Source:

https://mobile.twitter.com/EerikMatero/status/1575771275632709632

As always, we will continue to refine our assessment as we collect and verify more information.

All of today's changes are live on the interactive map: storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…

Russian sources uniformly noted that Ukrainian artillery continues to interdict Russian forces’ single remaining egress route on the Kreminna-Torske road.