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Thomas C. Theiner

Sep 27

Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine.

Let's dive in - a thread 🧵:
1/n

These Pentagon papers include all items the Pentagon ordered to replace equipment sent to Ukraine up to 12 August 2022.

I.e the Pentagon ordered:
• $1,381,308,000 of Javelins and $73,123,000 of Javelin Command Launch Units (CLU) to replace the Javs sent to Ukraine.
2/n

• $808,811,000 of Stingers. Interestingly $505,054,000 worth of the Stingers are for the Marine Corps, which hasn't ordered Stingers since 2005.
• $31,136,000 M777 howitzer spare parts have been ordered to replace the spares sent by the Marines to Ukraine
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Read 21 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 25

A military needs to have the right mix between equipment (capability), numbers (capacity), and readiness (i.e. training) to achieve battlefield success.

Ukraine's military has the numbers and readiness - but it still lacks equipment. It is extremely defeatist and dangerous
1/4

that Western nations won't deliver all the requested kit to Ukraine: air defense, fighter jets, main battle tanks, self-propelled artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, Patriot, etc.

The longer the West dithers, the more putin is encouraged to prolong this war by throwing
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the maximum numbers of bodies at Ukraine, even though his forces have neither the kit nor training to win against the Ukrainian troops.

Sending Ukraine every piece of kit they asked for, even if that means a reduction in capability and readiness of Western militaries is the
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Read 4 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 21

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1571821303253946368

Why are russian propagandists and the Kremlin so afraid of ATACMS missiles... is it a fear of striking deep into russia? is it a fear of striking symbolic targets?

No, it's all about logistics. A thread 🧵:

1/n

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1571821303253946368

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1544495879884886017

russian military logistics are a disaster: no forklifts, no pallets, too few trucks, bad maintenance, corruption, incompetence, no movement control units - without access to a railroad russia can't supply its troops.

For more about this topic - see:

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1544495879884886017

2/n

The only way for russia to somehow keep its logistics alive are railroads. For russia no access to a railroad equals failure of an operation:

attack towards Kyiv from the East - no railroad = no supplies, troops starving, tanks without fuel, no ammo - disaster, then retreat.
3/n

Read 25 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 18

Now that Ukraine has received 4x self-propelled howitzers, let's do a quick comparison of:

• M109A3GN (photo), M109A4BE, M109A5Ö
• Zuzana 2
• AHS Krab
• PzH 2000

1/n

The three M109 variants:
• M109A3GN modernized & donated by Norway
• M109A4BE modernized by Belgium & donated by the UK
• M109A5Ö modernized by Austria & donated by Latvia (photo)

have a 39 caliber barrel and thus an 18 liter charge chamber, which can hold max.
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five M232A1 charges. This results in a maximum range of 24 km with boat tail projectiles and 30 km with base bleed projectiles.

Being the oldest design the M109 require manual projectile loading, manual projectile ramming, manual charge loading, manual primer loading.

3/n

Read 14 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 17

I quick guide to distinguish the three M109 variants donated to Ukraine so far:

🇳🇴 Norwegian M109A3GN:

• Blue circle: circular muzzle brake
• Red circle: curved stowage box
• Yellow: square stowage box unaligned with the turret

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🇦🇹🇱🇻 Austrian M109A5Ö donated by Latvia:

• Blue circle: elliptical muzzle brake
• Red circle: smoke grenade launchers
• Yellow: square stowage box aligned with the turret

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The two can also be distinguished by the form of the breech:

Left: Norwegian square breechblock in the M109A3GN
Right: classic M109 round breechblock in the Austrian M109A5Ö

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Read 4 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 15

Today Italy's Army releases its vision for its future.

In it I found this image of the "battlespace of the future". I added the names of some of the systems the army says its needs in the future, only two of which the army doesn't posses:
• 🇹🇷Bayraktar TB2
• 🇮🇱IAI Harop

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These two systems devastated the Armenian Army in 2020.

Other interesting points:
• more, and more modern tanks and armored vehicles, and a national mass production capability for them
• massed C-RAM and C-UAS systems
• deep strike capability with ER-GMLRS, combat drones,
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loitering munitions, and Vulcano ammunition
• new AW249 attack helicopter, AW169 light utility helicopter, and also American Future Vertical Lift helicopters
• ballistic missile defense, more SAMP/T air defense systems, and introduction of Grifo SHORAD air defense systems
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Read 4 tweets

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