Thread by @BShtwtr

The Houthis have issued a statement providing justification for not renewing the truce

Read the statement in English here:
saba.ye/en/news3205175…

Why is this important and how can the international community avoid having #Yemen witness a new cycle of violence

- The current ceasefire (from April 2022) is the only ceasefire from the beginning of the conflict that has shown some tangible results.
- There has been no airstrikes since April 2022 and the Houthis shelling on #Taiz and #Marib have decreased significantly

- The truce has resulted in resuming flights to Sanaa airport.
- The truce however did not succeed on lifting the siege on Taiz and have not resulted in the free movement of people between different cities.

Q: So what went wrong?
A: First, you need to understand that the Houthis did not agree to the ceasefire while they were able to launch military operations, they wanted time to mobilize, recruit and prepare.

- In order to recruit, they need money. So they pressured the UN Envoy to pressure the Yemeni Gov & Saudi Arabia to lift the restrictions on oil shipments coming to Hodaidah, especially the shipments from the oil companies they now own.

- Despite oil coming in, they orchestrated an oil crisis by locking the oil in the port in Hodaidah. This created a black market and then a decision by the Yemeni Petroleum Company (Sanaa Branch which now is entirely controlled by the Houthis) to set new oil prices.

- The new inflated oil prices insured cashflow. Putting into account that the Houthis do not pay salaries or pay for services in the areas they control.
- More revenues means more money and more money means more arms and more recruits.

- The Houthis then started to drum up and send signals that they will not be renewing the truce and submitted a long list of precondition to consider renewing the ceasefire.

- The International Community - especially the UN and US Envoys - did too little to explain the obstacles and the many preconditions set by the Houthis. Celebrating prematurely the success of their efforts in achieving peace in #Yemen.

- Unable to understand the main obstacle to peace in #Yemen is fatal: It has never been about the US wanting or not wanting to see peace in Yemen. It is about the fact that the government was overthrown by an armed militia that dragged the country into conflict.

- The country was literally dragged into this conflict by the Houthis.
- Not only failing to explain the statues quo, the envoys continued the long policy of appeasement, naively hoping that the Houthis will see this as a sign of good will.

So the question remains, what can the international community do to help?
The answer is simply do not give more concessions. The Int. Community need to get its act together and for the first time be decisive.

- Send a letter to the Houthis firmly rejecting their statement and the many accusations they laid.
- State clearly that the Int. Community are prepared to double down support for the Yemeni Gov forces and will see the Houthis be defeated unless the Houthis agree to the ceasefire

- Despite the tough talk, the Houthis will not gamble and will not go into a fight if they saw a decisive reaction.
- Sending weak signals only emboldens the Houthis to throw more Yemenis - including many children - into the battlefield.

- Yemeni groups & factions who adopted an appeasement policy towards the Houthis ended paying a hefty price.
Winston Churchill once said: “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile hoping it will eat him last.”
Only here the Int. Community are gambling with the lives of Yemenis