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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Oct 2 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
Weekend Update, pretty clear what the important development is of the week, and its this, not Putin's chaotic mobilization. The Ukrainian capture of Lyman points the way to how Ukraine is set on prosecuting the war against significant Russian military formations.
Wrote this yesterday. Think the way the Ukrainians captured Lyman and forced out Russian forces shows how they plan to fight the war in the coming months, as they basically try and drive the Russians out of the east and west by attacking logistics.
The Kharkiv campaign probably gave a false idea of how quickly the Ukrainians will be able to move. @MBielieskov gave a succinct description from the Ukrainian view. Basically they hit the Russians were they had too few forces.
quick summary here.
This lack of Russian defensive depth, allowed Ukraine to seize a large amount of space in a short time.
SInce then, the pace of Ukrainian advance has slowed, though it continues on and is showing how much they understand the weaknesses of their plodding Russian opponent. They are cutting supply routes down to the forward Russian staging points.
For instance, the Ukr Kharkiv advance ended up being directed to the city of Kupiansk (@War_Mapper) adapted. Kupiansk controls the logistics down to Izyum. And lo and behold, once Kupiansk was taken, the Russians were forced out of Izyum.
Then the next target was Lyman. However Lyman would be well-defended and the Ukrainians did not control the roads down. In this case the key transport hub for Russian supply into Lyman was Svatove.
Being unable to reach Svatove by ground, however, the Ukrainians used HIMARS and MLRS methodically to heavily damage Russian logistics and command in control there. One of the most thorough jobs, and it was documented here.
While the Ukr were devastating Russian logistics in Svatove, they started enveloping Lyman from both sides. Avoiding dangerous frontal assaults but getting behind Russian forces around the city. Here is a time lapse of how they methodically cut Lyman off.
They basically made Lyman unholdable for the Russians, without trying many if any dangerous assaults (one major difference in this war is that Ukrainian troops understand that their commanders dont want to waste their lives, Russian troops think the opposite).
It was an extremely well-thought out and executed campaign. Didnt risk Ukrainian forces and took advantage of Russian inflexibility and politics (the Ukr seemed to guess correctly that Putin would try and hold Lyman as he was about to illegally annex it).
Also gives a strong indication of where the Ukr might go next--to seize Kreminna. Taking this city cuts the railway into Svatove. Svatove is the natural supply hub for Russians on the Oskil River.
Basically the Russian defensive line on the Oskil becomes impossible to hold without being able to run logistics through Svatove.
Not sure the Ukrainians even need to phyically seize it to cause another Russian defensive collapse for their entire line between Kupyansk and Kreminna.
Ukrainians will want to keep up momentum. They have (and are continuing to gain) well-trained and battle experienced troops. They certainly seem to think they dont need more raw recruits right now. They want to use the superb army they have developed now.
And what will the Russians counter with--completely untrained conscripts--or at best those with a few weeks of basic? Its a recipe for further Ukrainian victories as they basically continue to degrade Russian logistics in the east.
Adding to this. Reports are coming in now that the Ukrainians are trying to move on Kreminna quickly.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Oct 3
It’s fascinating that it seems to be mostly those who were saying in February that Russia was so strong that Ukraine should be sacrificed that are now saying that Ukraine can’t be made too strong to save poor Putin from humiliation
I think what it shows is that the realists have no understanding of war. First they made it sound easy; with the awesome Russian army streaking forward like in some video game and taking whatever they wanted. Now they act like it’s some tap you can turn off and on with Ukraine.
Doesn’t work like that. You can’t just dial it up and down easily. Tell me what support in particular you want to stop to slow Ukraine down?
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Oct 2
More and more stories about the Ukrainians making a significant advance in Kherson Oblast--mostly seem to be pushing down from the north along the Dnipro.
Here is one attempt to map it--thought this cant be confirmed at present.
The specific locations mentioned seem to be coming from Russian online chatter. If this is accurate, its a major problem for the Russians, will probably have to retract their line significantly from the north east.
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Oct 2
Been asked why I didnt make Putin's illegal annexation the story of the week. Actually, I think its being overstated in importance as Im not sure what it actually changes, beyond giving Russians a bad concert. Im skeptical for the following reasons.
1. The point of this invasion was to seize Ukraine. Putin made that clear in February. So annexation was always on the cards. This was just a cack-handed as Putin doesnt even control everything he annexed, as is painfully obvious even for Russians
2. I dont see how this makes the use of Russian nukes more or less likely. If Putin is going to use them its because he sees no other alternative to save himself. The government's been threatening nukes all the time, and drawn red lines that they dont enforce (Crimea)...
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Oct 1
Agree with this. Will tweet about this in more detail during my weekend update 2mrw, but the Battle or Lyman is in many ways more revealing than the Kharkiv campaign. The Kharkiv advance happened because the Ukrainians hit the Russians where they were mostly undefended.
That allowed a fast, deep advance into empty space as the Russians had nothing to slow the advance. What has just happened around Lyman is far more impressive in a way. The Russians had made this a major priority area for months, seemed to have lots of troops in the area.
So the Ukrainians had to methodically take on a much larger enemy that seems tolerably well armed. Still. The Ukrainians fixed them in Lyman, hit their logistics to the north and then surrounded the city from both sides. This requires planning and executing of the highest order.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 28
At @BritishAcademy_ conference on Russo-Ukraine War. Fascinating talk by @Joanna_Szostek on Ukrainian public opinion pre Feb 24. By 2020 A majority of Ukrainians were desirous of good and friendly relations with Russia, just wanting it to be based on 2 independent states.
And the Ukr city which wanted the best relations by far was Mariupol. There twice as many residents (42%) would have preferred a customs union with Russia over one with the EU (21%).
So Ukrainians were not automatically hostile to Russia or wanting conflict, Ukrainian public opinion was warning to Russia, and the Russians have proceeded to basically wipe out the most pro Russian part of Ukraine.
Read 17 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 25
Sunday Update. Russia (finally) mobilizes with the worst mobilization process in modern history. Plus why it wont matter that much unless they properly train and equip the forces and why people are being fooled by one vision of WWII and the Eastern Front.
If Putin understood this war after the initial setback around Kyiv, he would have mobilized . It was then. As the Russian Army was going to soon run very short of well-trained and motivated troops. I put together this thread in March.
In April, when there was talk about Putin mobilizing during his May 9 speech, I guessed it would have taken him about 9 months minimum to produce basically trained forces, and that was if they had started preparing.
Read 18 tweets

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