I’m kicking off my Tory conference at a @CapX / @CPSThinkTank fringe event titled: ‘Can the Tories win the next election?’. Polling guru @jamesjohnson252 says that in recent days “the title of this panel has become easier to answer.”
.@jamesjohnson252 says that up until the Truss/Kwarteng statement the Tories still had a decent shot of winning the next general election. But something “very big” and “drastic” has happened since then: the Tory party has rapidly lost its reputation for economic competence
.@jamesjohnson252 says “it’s very hard to see how” the Tories stay in power at the next general election
Rachel Wolf, who co-authored the Tory 2019 election manifesto: “I don’t think they can (win the next election).” She says the new government has “rejected everything” that Johnson won the last election on. Meanwhile, Starmer is presenting himself as “patriotic and not terrifying”
US pollster @FrankLuntz delivers some bruising home truths to this room of Tory members (I hope they’re not here for a mood lift...) He says the party “are going to get their arses kicked” if it doesn’t change course. “I thought we were compassionate, I thought we were caring?”
.@FrankLuntz says Truss/Kwarteng talk of supply-side reform doesn’t mean anything to most people. “Stop with the ideology!” he tells the Conservative party
US pollster @FrankLuntz said he was stunned to hear Health Secretary Therese Coffey pledge to reduce GP wait time to 2 weeks: “What the heck?”. Wolf agrees, saying it just reminds people how long wait times are @CapX / @CPSThinkTank
.@FrankLuntz urges the Conservative party to not wage a culture war. He says while it might gain them a seat or two, “you’ll regret the kind of country that you leave behind”
Pollster @FrankLuntz says the Tory party can’t at the moment seriously claim to be united when Rishi Sunak isn’t at #CPC22. “Why is not here?… When people don’t even show up, what are the voters supposed to think? Come on, guys.”
Any Tory who went along to that event in search of reasons for optimism will have been disappointed
(Rachel Wolf, who I forgot to tag, is @racheljanetwolf)
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