Exclusive: Nearly half of people (47%) want the UK to have a closer relationship with the EU, while 14% want to be further apart, according to a @Savanta_UK poll for @politicshome

It's the latest evidence of growing public support for a softer Brexit

politicshome.com/news/article/c… The poll also found support for closer ties with the EU among 2016 Leave voters...

30% closer, 18% further away

"There's definitely a sense that the process has been bungled and that the benefits which Leavers were promised haven't really materialised" - Savanta's Chris Hopkins

I’m kicking off my Tory conference at a @CapX / @CPSThinkTank fringe event titled: ‘Can the Tories win the next election?’. Polling guru @jamesjohnson252 says that in recent days “the title of this panel has become easier to answer.” .@jamesjohnson252 says that up until the Truss/Kwarteng statement the Tories still had a decent shot of winning the next general election. But something “very big” and “drastic” has happened since then: the Tory party has rapidly lost its reputation for economic competence

Spot the difference

Jonathan Gullis' original Facebook post about the ECHR (h/t @patrickkmaguire)

...and his edited post

He was told that the Good Friday Agreement requires ECHR participation, @politicshome understands

Gullis is Brandon Lewis' PPS

politicshome.com/news/article/j… A source close to Gullis said: “The Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement and its interaction with the ECHR clearly has to be respected as it is integral to the peace and prosperity of Northern Ireland...

Jonathan Jones QC, former head of the government legal department, writes for @TheHouseMag about the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill

"It is one of the most extraordinary pieces of legislation I have ever seen"

The legal position is "hopeless," he argues

politicshome.com/thehouse/artic… .@SirJJQC: "How can an agreement willingly entered into only in 2020, at what the PM described as a 'fantastic moment', be already proving so disastrous as to represent “grave peril” to the country?

"The government statement provides no evidence for such an extreme conclusion"

Exclusive: Material leaked to @politicshome this weekend sets up an almighty row when the government publishes its Northern Ireland Protocol legislation, expected tomorrow... Tory MPs who oppose government's Protocol plan have this weekend been sharing this briefing doc setting out why they intend to vote against it

It says the bill is "damaging to everything the UK and Conservatives stand for" & "breaks international law"

politicshome.com/news/article/g…

Exclusive: Correspondence leaked to @politicshome shows concern at the top of government over the legality of the Northern Ireland Protocol legislation

A senior figure advising government believes the UK case is not credible and "very difficult" to argue

politicshome.com/news/article/n… Legislation designed to override the protocol is set to be tabled in the coming days, potentially as soon as tomorrow

Braverman green lighted it after concluding it was legal

But a senior figure advising ministers disagrees in correspondence I've seen

politicshome.com/news/article/n…

Tory MPs who want Johnson out have this weekend been circulating a briefing document setting out why. It warns the party is on course to lose the next election & concludes “the only way to end this misery, earn a hearing from the British public… is to remove Boris Johnson as PM” The briefing, which I understand is doing the rounds, appears to quote a @Samfr tweet saying the jubilee boos for Johnson “tells us nothing that data does not.” It also cites @jamesjohnson252 telling colleague @hoffman_noa that the PM is at risk of being a “Conservative Corbyn”

New: Government confirms it is delaying physical checks on EU imports for a 4th time

New controls won't be brought in until *late 2023*

Supply chains already struggling with rising energy costs and the effects of Putin's invasion, HMG says

Rees Mogg visiting Eurotunnel today Story: Government bins plans to introduce physical checks on EU imports on July 1st

An "improved" regime will be brought in late next yr - a whole 18 months or so away

@politicshome reported this month that Rees Mogg had won the argument inside Cabinet

politicshome.com/news/article/c…

There's a growing Cabinet push for Boris Johnson to trigger A16 after the Northern Ireland elections

There's a feeling among ministers that they should have done so in the autumn, and that failure to do so made the UK look like the "boy who cried wolf"

politicshome.com/news/article/c… Ministers accept they can't trigger A16 before May 5 even if they wanted to, due to purdah

But there's a push to do so afterwards if NI is without an Executive and there's no sign of progress

Follows @patrickkmaguire reporting Truss "lost faith" in talks
politicshome.com/news/article/c…

I’ve spent this weekend in touch w/ Gavin, a UK teacher trying to flee Ukraine via the 🇷🇴 border. His Kyiv flat was destroyed by a Russian missile. Thankfully just now he, colleague Rebecca and their dogs made it across - but only after days of being denied entry (footage his.) Gavin, who works at the British International School, says guards were not letting through men or women w/o children. Fortunately a kind 🇺🇦 family put them up for a few days, while another helped them through by “pleading our case” to guards. Now staying w/ a 🇷🇴 family in Siret.

Paul Givan, the DUP First Minister of Northern Ireland, is set to announce his resignation today, @politicshome understands An incredibly helpful thread setting out what happens to Stormont when Paul Givan resigns as First Minister. Legislation being passed in Westminster means it’ll be a major slowdown, rather than a total collapse

https://twitter.com/BBCJayneMcC/status/1489164617989427203

It doesn't sound like the UK government will be doing anything to overrule Edwin Poots' action on Irish Sea checks. A source says: "It proves our point that there are serious issues with the Protocol that need fixing." No action coming from the UK government tonight after Poots orders the suspension of GB-NI checks

UK spox says operation of the checks are "a matter for the Northern Ireland Executive"

Truss to speak to Sefcovic tomorrow. Government is considering the legality in the meantime

Louise Haigh is being moved from Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary, I’m told Starmer wants Haigh — who has impressed Labour figures with her handling of the Northern Ireland brief — to do a “frontline domestic policy” job, I’m told. Transport has been discussed

A Labour MP quips “derailed” as the PM dodges Starmer’s questions on whether he’ll keep his promises to the north on railway improvements #PMQs Starmer calls the PM “a coward, not a leader.” Very punchy. Tory benches looking a bit quiet and fed up #PMQs

European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic with some warm(ish) words following his meeting this morning with Lord Frost. He says he acknowledges and welcomes Frost's "changing tone" in talks over the Northern Ireland Protocol after a fairly tense few weeks. Sefcovic once again welcomes Lord Frost's "change in tonality," saying talk of the UK potentially triggering Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol had featured "too often" in their discussions prior to today

Duncan Buchanan of the Road Haulage Association tells @CommonsBEIS he expects supply chain disruption resulting from labour shortages to last another 12 months The @Foodanddrinkfed's Ian Wright: supply chain issues are "long-term" and will continue to result in "very odd shortages." He says some supermarkets are filling seasonal shelves with Lynx because they are low on stock, "not because the nation has suddenly become really smelly"

The EU reveals its substantial offer on the NI Protocol

- reduce SPS checks by 80%
- cut customs paperwork by half
- free flow of medicines

But it's standing firm on the ECJ. "Big gap" remains if UK sticks to its line, EU source warns

Sefovic & Frost to meet next few days On SPS, as @tconnellyRTE reported last night, lorries carrying mixed consignments (e.g meat, fish, cheese) would just require just one piece of paperwork to enter NI under the EU proposals, whereas now there can be any number of documents depending on the number of items

Lord Frost in his Lisbon speech, philosophically titled Observations on The Present State of the Nation, says UK-EU relations are "fractious" and that resolving the Northern Ireland Protocol is a "prerequisite" for them improving Frost says going for what some people dubbed a "hard Brexit" - i.e leaving the Single Market and Customs Union - was "essential" because only that form of Brexit would give the UK the freedom "to experiment and act"

New: I’m told the Home Office has changed the visa scheme so it no longer ends on Xmas Eve. Driver visas will last the full 3 months from the day work starts, industry told today. @politicshome reported this wk industry concern that the scheme would be <three months in practice. The government believes EU workers will begin arriving in early November, as @politicshome reported. A Home Office plan shown to industry figures today says ministers expect lorry drivers to be in the UK until the end of February, and poultry workers until the end of January

Ministers could decide as soon as today to deploy soldiers to drive tankers

There are reports of cars tailgating lorries on the motorway amid panic buying

Meanwhile, industry was this morning still waiting for details of how the visa scheme would work politicshome.com/news/article/m… However, industry leaders are confident that panic buying will subside in the next few days

They have also expressed doubt over how impactful bringing in the army would be, with low numbers of soldiers actually qualified to drive tankers

Confirmed: The government is delaying some checks on EU imports

Export Health Certificates, originally required from October, now not needed until July

Physical checks and safety & security decs moved from January to July

questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1435572627775664129

Scathing response from @Foodanddrinkfed Ian Wright, who says officials said “as recently as yesterday” checks will go ahead as planned

“Many food & drink manufacturers will be dismayed by the lateness of this substantial change… With just 17 days to go the rug has been pulled”